The TCU Horned Frogs hold the edge in the Bluebonnet Battle, leading the Baylor Bears 59-53-7 and currently on a four-game winning streak. Can Baylor flip the script in Week 10?
Our TCU vs. Baylor preview dives into the matchup, offering key betting insights to help you make the smartest picks.
TCU vs. Baylor Betting Preview
All TCU vs. Baylor odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Baylor -1 - Spread
Baylor -3 - Moneyline
Baylor -148, TCU +124 - Over/Under
63 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 2 - Location
McLane Stadium | Waco, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
78 degrees, 12 mph winds, thunderstorm - How To Watch
ESPN2
The TCU-Baylor Big 12 battle opened with a near-70-point total (69.5) but has since been played down to under 65.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
That movement just makes the over an even more enticing play, as it has hit in:
- Six of TCU’s last nine game
- Five of TCU’s last six on the road
- Each of Baylor’s previous five contests
The field goal spread in Baylor’s favor is also juicy, as the Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home, and the Horned Frogs are a paltry 2-7 ATS dating back to last season.
TCU’s Winning Probability
After an embarrassing loss to Houston, the Horned Frogs have defeated Big 12 opponents Utah and Texas Tech. With a 3-2 conference record, they still have a shot at the title, but they’ll need to run the table with BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Colorado ahead of them. According to the FPM, that is far from an impossible task.
- at Baylor: 48.8%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 60.6%
- vs. Arizona: 52.8%
- at Cincinnati: 51.8%
Baylor’s Winning Probability
When QB Blake Shapen went down with a season-ending injury, it appeared the Bears were looking at back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 2008-09. However, backup Sawyer Robertson has led the program to back-to-back conference victories and is looking for his third straight.
- vs. TCU: 51.2%
- at West Virginia: 37.4%
- at Houston: 64.6%
- vs. Kansas: 64.1%
Prediction for TCU vs. Baylor
TCU has taken down Baylor in eight of their last nine meetings—hardly a rivalry lately. But the Bears will have the backing of a “black-out” crowd at McLane Stadium as they celebrate their 2013 and 2014 Big 12 Championship teams.
Baylor’s offense revolves around a strong ground game and Robertson’s knack for hitting deep shots. The run game shouldn’t be an issue in Week 10, but connecting downfield might be. TCU ranks 98th in run defense (allowing 166.1 yards per game) but sits at 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.2) and 11th in opponent passing first downs per game.
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On the other side, Andy Avalos’ defense has brought relentless pressure, compensating for a defensive line that’s struggled to get home (just 2.0 sacks per game)—a weakness Robertson has exploited with his arm and mobility.
With TCU’s run game underwhelming, relying instead on quick passes, and a high-risk, high-reward QB, look for the Bears to finally break through and shake off the past in Week 10.
Prediction: Baylor 38, TCU 34
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