TCU vs. Baylor Prediction: Are the Bears Fur Real?

    The Horned Frogs have had the Bears' number in recent Bluebonnet Battles. Who has the upper hand in our TCU vs. Baylor prediction?

    The TCU Horned Frogs own the Bluebonnet Battle, going 59-53-7 vs. the Baylor Bears and riding a four-game win streak. Can the Bears turn the tide in Week 10?

    In our TCU vs. Baylor preview, we detail the matchup and provide essential betting insights to guide your smartest wagers.

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    TCU vs. Baylor Betting Preview

    All TCU vs. Baylor odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.

    • CFN FPM Spread
      Baylor -1
    • Spread
      Baylor -3
    • Moneyline
      Baylor -130, TCU +155
    • Over/Under
      64.5 points
    • Game Time
      8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 2
    • Location
      McLane Stadium | Waco, Texas
    • Predicted Weather at Kick
      78 degrees, 12 mph winds, thunderstorm
    • How To Watch
      ESPN2

    The TCU-Baylor Big 12 battle opened with a near-70-point total (69.5) but has since been played down to under 65.

    MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator

    That movement just makes the over an even more enticing play, as it has hit in:

    • Six of TCU’s last nine game
    • Five of TCU’s last six on the road
    • Each of Baylor’s previous five contests

    The field goal spread in Baylor’s favor is also juicy, as the Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home, and the Horned Frogs are a paltry 2-7 ATS dating back to last season.

    TCU’s Winning Probability

    After an embarrassing loss to Houston, the Horned Frogs have defeated Big 12 opponents Utah and Texas Tech. With a 3-2 conference record, they still have a shot at the title, but they’ll need to run the table with BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Colorado ahead of them. According to the FPM, that is far from an impossible task.

    • at Baylor: 48.8%
    • vs. Oklahoma State: 60.6%
    • vs. Arizona: 52.8%
    • at Cincinnati: 51.8%

    Baylor’s Winning Probability

    When QB Blake Shapen went down with a season-ending injury, it appeared the Bears were looking at back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 2008-09. However, backup Sawyer Robertson has led the program to back-to-back conference victories and is looking for his third straight.

    • vs. TCU: 51.2%
    • at West Virginia: 37.4%
    • at Houston: 64.6%
    • vs. Kansas: 64.1%

    Prediction for TCU vs. Baylor

    TCU has defeated Baylor in eight of their last nine matchups — this hasn’t been a rivalry of late. However, the Bears will play in front of their “black-out” crowd at McLane Stadium as they honor their 2013 and 2014 Big 12 Championship teams.

    Baylor’s offense is predicated on an efficient running game and Robertson’s ability to hit downfield shots — the former shouldn’t be an issue in Week 10 but the latter might. While TCU is 98th in run defense (166.1 yards per game), it’s tied for 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.2) and 11th in opponent passing first downs per game.

    MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

    Yet, Andy Avalos’ defense has brought the heat at a high rate this season due to the defensive line’s inability to bring pressure (2.0 sacks per game), an area in which Robertson has made defenses pay with his arm and legs.

    With TCU’s offense providing little value on the ground, using the quick game to move the ball, and having a boom-or-bust passer in QB, take the Bears to exorcise their demons in Week 10.

    Prediction: Baylor 38, TCU 34

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