The UConn Huskies are one win away from bowl eligibility. It’s still October.
The 5-3 Huskies could be even better, with two one-score ACC losses to boot, but they have plenty of winnable games left on the schedule, starting with Friday’s home game against the Georgia State Panthers.
While there have been a few highs — specifically a win over Vanderbilt — it’s still apparent that head coach Dell McGee took over late in the spring; in the midst of a four-game slide, the Panthers are just looking to get back in the win column. This Georgia State vs. UConn prediction looks at whether the Panthers can pull off the upset.
Georgia State vs. UConn Atlantic Betting Preview
All Georgia State vs. UConn odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UConn -3.5 - Spread
UConn -7.5 - Moneyline
UConn -290, Georgia State +235 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game Time
Nov. 1, 7 ET - Location
Pratt & Whitney Stadium | East Hartford, Conn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
56 degrees, clear, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
CBSSN
While it’s remarkable to many that UConn is in line to go bowling for just the second time in 10 seasons, it’s also not all that surprising given the relatively easy schedule and the way the Huskies have been playing. What you see from Georgia State, on the other hand, is a true Year 0 situation, as the Panthers hired McGee very late in the spring and put a Band-Aid on its roster.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The line is indicative of that, as the Huskies are 7.5-point home favorites. A 48.5-point total means that Vegas expects a game close to 28-21 in favor of UConn.
Georgia State’s Winning Probability
CFN’s FPM is a bit higher on the Panthers in this one than Vegas is. Georgia State is a slightly smaller underdog at 3.5 points, a win probability of 39.4% per the metric. The metric makes the Panthers underdogs in every remaining game, but it places three of the five as very winnable.
- at UConn: 39.4%
- at James Madison: 12.2%
- vs. Arkansas State: 48.8%
- at Texas State: 14.1%
- vs. Coastal Carolina: 48.2%
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UConn’s Winning Probability
Conversely, CFN’s FPM gives UConn a 60.6% chance to win and has the Huskies as slight favorites in three of their remaining four games. While bowl eligibility is likely, the Huskies are likely aiming for a seven- or eight-win season
- vs. Georgia State: 60.6%
- at UAB: 62.6%
- at Syracuse: 16.7%
- at UMass: 52.8%
Prediction for Georgia State vs. UConn
UConn’s defense is fantastic. Some of the numbers might be boosted by some bad offenses, but a team doesn’t stumble into being the best third-down defense in the nation.
Teams are really struggling to pass the ball with success against the Huskies, and that’s allowing UConn to sit back in zone on long third downs and keep the ball in front of them.
From an efficiency standpoint, Georgia State’s offense has really struggled. The Panthers are 103rd in third-down offense and 133rd in fourth-down offense. Though they throw a lot, they haven’t been particularly successful, sitting just 97th in yards per attempt.
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That makes this a rough matchup for the Georgia State offense. UConn’s defense likes to play a lot of zone, forcing opposing quarterbacks to make good decisions and deliver with consistent accuracy. While the Huskies don’t create a lot of pressure or turnovers, they do force a lot of punts.
That allows the offense to be methodical and pick its spots while knowing the defense is going to get stops. It’s not pretty football, but it works.
Expect the Huskies to frustrate the Panthers, forcing Georgia State to get more aggressive than it would like. I like the Huskies in another low-scoring battle. I also really like them to cover in one of my favorite plays of the week. I got in at 6.5, but it still has some value at 7.5.
Prediction: UConn 26, Georgia State 14
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