Although the Wisconsin Badgers own the all-time series lead 49-46-2, the Iowa Hawkeyes have won the last two battles for the Heartland Trophy. Will the streak continue in Week 10?
In our Wisconsin vs. Iowa preview, we detail the matchup and provide essential betting insights to guide your smartest wagers.
Wisconsin vs. Iowa Betting Preview
All Wisconsin vs. Iowa odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -2.5 - Spread
Iowa -3.5 - Moneyline
Iowa -180, Wisconsin +150 - Over/Under
41.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Nov. 2 - Location
Kinnick Stadium | Iowa City, Iowa - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, 6 mph winds, light rain - How To Watch
NBC
Attention all bettors: the over has hit in four of Wisconsin’s last six games and seven of Iowa’s last eight. Do with that information what you will.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
As far as the spread, the Badgers have struggled against the Hawkeyes, going 1-4 ATS in the previous five matchups. However, they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests on the road, so the 2024 duel could be closer than expected.
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
Both programs are a win away from going bowling, but Wisconsin’s path is notably more difficult. Outside of the season finale against Minnesota, the Badgers own sub-50% win probabilities for the rest of the year.
- at Iowa: 45.7%
- vs. Oregon: 16.5%
- at Nebraska: 46.2%
- vs. Minnesota: 61.9%
Iowa’s Winning Probability
Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes don’t have a win probability under 50%, which is highlighted by two 70+ rates on the road against UCLA and Maryland.
- vs. Wisconsin: 54.3%
- at UCLA: 75.3%
- at Maryland: 73.0%
- vs. Nebraska: 55.6%
Prediction for Wisconsin vs. Iowa
After seeing a three-game conference winning streak snapped by the Penn State Nittany Lions last week, the Badgers will look to begin a new streak against the Hawkeyes. It won’t be easy, as Kirk Ferentz’s squad just throttled Northwestern 40-14.
In fact, Iowa has scored 40 in two of its last three games, relying on road-grading RB Kaleb Johnson (146-1,144-16 rushing line on the year) to set the tone on offense.
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The unit could have an even higher ceiling with Brendan Sullivan taking the reins from Cade McNamara, who has provided subpar play under center. Sullivan completed 9 of 14 passes for 79 yards to go along with eight carries, 41 yards, and a score on the ground to finish out last week’s contest.
“We made the decision during the week we were going to rotate Brendan in a little bit on the third or fourth series,” Ferentz said after the game. “It just worked out that way. He did a really nice job. Cade was shaken up also after the hit he took.”
Sullivan is now listed as the QB1, with McNamara completely off the depth chart entering Week 10. Don’t expect Sullivan to light up the Badgers’ sturdy defense, but pairing his dual-threat ability with Johnson’s game-altering efforts on the ground will be too much for the road team to handle.
It doesn’t help that Wisconsin also has a QB issue, with a season-ending injury to starter Tyler Van Dyke thrusting sophomore Braedyn Locke into the lineup. While Locke hasn’t derailed the offense, he’s only completed 57.6% of his passes for seven TDs and six INTs.
Take Iowa to win straight up, cover, and both teams to score enough to hit the over.
Prediction: Iowa 27, Wisconsin 20
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