“Weekday CUSA” wraps up this week as the New Mexico State Aggies face off against the FIU Panthers in a Tuesday night showdown at Pitbull Stadium. Who will come out on top?
Our New Mexico State vs. FIU preview breaks down all the essentials, from the latest betting odds to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
New Mexico State vs. FIU Betting Preview
All New Mexico State vs. FIU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
FIU -6 - Spread
FIU -7 - Moneyline
FIU -270, New Mexico State +220 - Over/Under
43.5 points - Game time
7 p.m. ET - Location
Pitbull Stadium | Miami, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
77 degrees, partly cloudy and windy, 21 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
This Tuesday night marks the fourth meeting between New Mexico State and FIU, with the Aggies having dominated the Panthers in their first CUSA clash last season. The road team leads the series 2-1, but this will be the Aggies’ debut at the newly-named Pitbull Stadium.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
If you’re looking to bet on this game, New Mexico State covering the spread is the smart play. Although FIU has covered in five of their eight games this season, they’ve struggled to do so as the favorite, failing to cover against Monmouth and UTEP.
Meanwhile, New Mexico State covered the spread in their last outing against Louisiana Tech, and they should be able to cover the touchdown spread here as well.
New Mexico State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, New Mexico State has a 33.6% chance of beating FIU on Tuesday night. Our metric has been in line with the Aggies’ performances this season, predicting every game correctly except for the Week 9 win over the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.
- at FIU: 33.6%
- vs. Western Kentucky: 17.4%
- at Texas A&M: 0.1%
- at Middle Tennessee: 39.4%
- vs. UTEP: 51.2%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Aggies would end the year with a 3-9 record. After challenging for the CUSA title a year ago, the first season under Tony Sanchez has been a testing one, and they could end the year with just two conference wins.
FIU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, FIU has a 66.4% chance of beating the Aggies on Tuesday night. While the Sam Houston Bearkats were considered a substantial favorite over the Panthers last time out, CFN FPM projected the narrow three-point defeat for Mike MacIntyre’s team.
- vs. New Mexico State: 66.4%
- at Jacksonville State: 25.4%
- at Kennesaw State: 65.7%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 61.9%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Panthers would end the year with a 5-7 record. That would be a one-win improvement on the previous two campaigns, and with four wins in CUSA play, it would be the program’s best conference record since 2018.
Prediction for New Mexico State vs. FIU
New Mexico State and FIU head into this Week 10 CUSA showdown with matching 1-3 conference records, both eager to escape the conference’s basement.
With half of CUSA holding just one conference win, the question is: will the Aggies or Panthers be the first to claim a second victory and take a step toward respectability? Which team has the edge, and where will the key battles play out?
After a tumultuous offseason that saw New Mexico State lose its coaching staff and star players to the transfer portal, the Aggies have had a steep fall from grace following last year’s surprise run to the CUSA title game. Former quarterback Diego Pavia is now a Heisman contender at Vanderbilt, leaving New Mexico State’s quarterback situation in a tough spot.
Only Army and Air Force have averaged fewer passing yards per game than the Aggies. Between Parker Award, Santino Marucci, and Duece Hogan, none of their quarterbacks with double-digit pass attempts has completed more than 45% of passes.
Still, there’s a spark of hope in Brandon Nunez. His dual-threat ability delivered three touchdowns in a win over Louisiana Tech, and if he gets the start Tuesday night, he could test FIU’s defense. FIU’s typically porous rush defense showed up last week against Sam Houston, limiting the Bearkats to just 131 rushing yards.
Defensively, FIU’s Travion Barnes has been a menace, racking up 10 tackles for loss this season. If he’s in top form, the Aggies could struggle to get their ground game going.
Meanwhile, FIU QB Keyone Jenkins is expected to start again after being benched last week. Fully healthy, he has the potential to be a game-changer in this matchup.
Prediction: FIU 27, New Mexico State 23
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