Midweek Sun Belt action never fails to deliver surprises, but when the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns face off against the Texas State Bobcats on Tuesday night, almost any outcome seems possible.
Before placing your bets, check out our Louisiana vs. Texas State prediction for insights on the spread and total in what promises to be an exciting midweek clash.
Louisiana vs. Texas State Betting Preview
All Louisiana vs. Texas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas State -3 - Spread
Texas State -4.5 - Moneyline
Texas State -198, Louisiana +164 - Over/Under
60 points - Game Time
Oct. 29, 7:30 ET - Location
UFCU Stadium | San Marcos, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, clear, 18 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
The Sun Belt is truly wide open, especially in the West Division, where five teams vie for a spot in the conference championship game. While technically, Texas State is fifth in the division, a win could tie the Bobcats for first, while a win for Louisiana would extend the Cajuns’ lead and keep them undefeated in conference play.
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Texas State essentially gets the home-field advantage boost as the only thing separating these teams is about a point and a half on paper, as the Bobcats are three-point favorites. With the total set at 60, Vegas implies a 32-28 game in favor of the Bobcats.
Louisiana’s Winning Probability
Even though the Ragin’ Cajuns are undefeated in the Sun Belt, they haven’t had many truly dominant games in the conference, winning all three contests by exactly 10 points.
Should the Ragin’ Cajuns win Tuesday, they’ll have a great chance to make the Sun Belt Conference Football Championship Game.
- vs. Arkansas State: 79.9%
- vs. South Alabama: 74.2%
- vs. Troy: 88.3%
- vs. UL-Monroe: 75.1%
Texas State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Texas State has a 55.6% chance of beating the Ragin’ Cajuns at home. If the Bobcats can pull out the win on Tuesday, they’ll have a decent chance of winning out, as they have a greater than 60% chance to win every remaining game.
- at UL-Monroe:65.7%
- vs. Southern Miss: 89.0%
- vs. Georgia State: 80.6%
- at South Alabama: 63.6%
Prediction for Louisiana vs. Texas State
I was way off with my preseason call on Louisiana, as I actually took the Ragin’ Cajuns under 7.5 wins. The key differences have been an improved defense and stellar quarterback play.
The entire offense has been firing, ranking 14th nationally in yards per play, which has fueled their impressive 6-1 record.
Texas State, on the other hand, also has strong underlying stats, with both their offense and defense in the top 20 for yards per play. The main difference in their record? A couple of slip-ups: one offensive dud in a 24-14 loss to Old Dominion last week and two shootout losses to quality teams.
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San Marcos is always a tough trip, and Texas State fans turn out for big games.
The quarterback matchup here is fantastic, with Ben Wooldridge and Jordan McCloud ranking among the best QBs in the Group of Five. For me, this game hinges on McCloud’s mobility. If Louisiana can keep him from making plays with his legs, they should get a few extra stops.
I think they pull it off and stay undefeated in the conference. Louisiana’s secondary will need to come up with a few big plays, but I like their odds. The total feels a bit high since both defenses have what it takes to keep this from becoming a full-on shootout.
Prediction: Louisiana 28, Texas State 24
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