If you’re looking for a high-octane, end-zone-packed game this Saturday afternoon, the Iowa Hawkeyes’ clash with the Northwestern Wildcats might not fit the bill. But when these two face off in a gritty Big Ten showdown, there’s plenty at stake.
Our Northwestern vs. Iowa prediction dives into all the key details, from the latest betting lines to each team’s outlook for the rest of the 2024 college football season.
Northwestern vs. Iowa Betting Preview
All Northwestern vs. Iowa odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Iowa -13 - Spread
Iowa -15.5 - Moneyline
Iowa -750, Northwestern +525 - Over/Under
38 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kinnick Stadium | Iowa City, IA - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, mostly sunny, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
Big Ten Network
While neither fanbase would describe this matchup as a rivalry game, it’s been a long-running fixture on the college football calendar. Saturday marks the 86th edition of Nebraska vs. Iowa, with the Hawkeyes enjoying a healthy advantage over the Wildcats. Having won the last three encounters, Iowa takes a 54-28-3 lead in the head-to-head into the Week 9 battle.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Although they’re just a game apart in 2024, Iowa is a decent moneyline and spread favorite ahead of Saturday’s game. Although they’ve lost two when favored this year, you should be safe with a moneyline bet on the Hawkeyes. Less safe is the spread, with Iowa covering just thrice and Northwestern twice this year.
The under might be the safest bet of all, with five of the last seven matchups between the two teams failing to breach 30 points.
Northwestern’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Northwestern only has a 17.2% chance of beating Iowa on Saturday afternoon. Our metric has been right about most Wildcats games this year, only forecasting the win over Maryland wrong through seven games so far.
- at Iowa: 17.2%
- at Purdue: 50%
- vs. Ohio State: 4.4%
- at Michigan: 14.9%
- vs. Illinois: 18.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Wildcats would end the year with a 4-8 record, presuming they win the 50:50 game with the Purdue Boilermakers. That is something of a sophomore slump for second-year head coach David Braun.
Iowa’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Iowa has an 82.8% chance of beating the Wildcats on Saturday afternoon. The CFN FPM projected the Hawkeyes to have five wins at this point of the season, incorrectly projecting the program to beat the Michigan State Spartans.
Aside from that, our metric has been in lockstep with Kirk Ferentz’s squad.
- vs. Northwestern: 82.8%
- vs. Wisconsin: 53.8%
- at UCLA: 75.3%
- at Maryland: 61.1%
- vs. Nebraska: 54.3%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Iowa would finish the season with a 9-3 record. That said, the matchups with the Wisconsin Badgers and Nebraska Cornhuskers are close enough to be classed as pick ’em games that could flip the narrative of the season if the Hawkeyes don’t emerge victorious.
Prediction for Northwestern vs. Iowa
A classic British game show once quipped, “points make prizes,” and if that motto applied to college football, these two teams might be a bit shy on hardware. While Iowa has shown flashes of offensive life this season, both teams still rank in the bottom half of the FBS in scoring. However, they each bring stout defenses to the table.
Can the 3-4 Wildcats shake things up at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, or will Iowa’s strength at home prove too tough to crack? Who has the advantage, and where will the game be won?
The spotlight in this matchup shines brightly on Iowa’s running back Kaleb Johnson—the heartbeat of the Hawkeyes’ offense. While quarterback Cade McNamara has had moments of success, the team’s leap from 132nd to 73rd in scoring offense this season leans heavily on Johnson’s shoulders as one of the nation’s premier offensive players.
Johnson has been electric, nearly unstoppable. If not for Ashton Jeanty’s historic pace, the Hawkeyes’ star would be at the forefront for the Doak Walker Award. Over seven games, he’s totaled 1,035 rushing yards at 7.8 yards per carry, scored 14 touchdowns, and added a few receiving stats to his name.
Iowa hasn’t won this season without Johnson surpassing the 100-yard mark. Yet Northwestern’s defense, ranked fifth in the Big Ten for fewest yards allowed per carry (3.23) and permitting just 103.4 rushing yards per game, might have what it takes to keep things close.
Even if Northwestern’s defense manages to stifle Iowa’s ground game, the Wildcats will have their own offensive struggles to contend with. The Hawkeyes’ defense, though perhaps not as dominant as in recent years, is still well-equipped to contain a Northwestern offense whose brightest star in 2024 has been Cam Porter with 320 rushing yards.
Prediction: Northwestern 10, Iowa 24
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.