The American Athletic Conference has one of the most interesting races to the championship game in college football, and the Charlotte 49ers head to Simmons Bank on Saturday looking to play spoiler to the Memphis Tigers’ title run. Can Biff Poggi’s team the Tigers in the all-AAC tussle in Week 9?
Our Charlotte vs. Memphis prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Charlotte vs. Memphis Betting Preview
All Charlotte vs. Memphis odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Memphis 14.5 - Spread
Memphis -18 - Moneyline
Memphis -950, Charlotte +626 - Over/Under
57 points - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium | Memphis, TN - Predicted Weather at Kick
76 degrees, mostly sunny and pleasant, 9 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPNU
Last season was the first edition of the Charlotte vs. Memphis matchup, with the Tigers winning on the road. However, the 49ers played them closer than expected. Could they repeat that performance this time around? Not according to the latest betting odds that place Ryan Silverfield’s conference contender as an 18-point spread and substantial moneyline favorite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Being a double-digit favorite hasn’t always been a role that Memphis has succeeded in this year. The Tigers are 3-2 covering the spread when favored by such a significant margin. They also have an outright loss as the moneyline favorite. However, Charlotte has been shellacked several times this year, losing by 18+ in their four defeats. Expect Memphis to do the same.
Charlotte’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Charlotte has just a 13.2% chance of beating Memphis on the road on Saturday. The 49ers have overcome the CFN FPM odds once this season when they beat the Rice Owls, but that was a substantially tighter forecast than the one they face against the Tigers.
The remaining win probabilities for Charlotte in the 2024 season are below:
- at Memphis: 13.2%
- vs. Tulane: 18.9%
- vs. USF: 34.3%
- at FAU: 49.4%
- vs. UAB: 66.4%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the 49ers would end the season with a 4-8 record. That would be a one-game improvement against 2023. Furthermore, the road game at the FAU Owls gives them a good shot at a fifth win of the season.
Memphis’ Winning Probability
Unsurprisingly, the CFN FPM gives Memphis an 86.8% chance of beating Charlotte on Saturday afternoon. As one of the AAC frontrunners, the Tigers should be favored substantially.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for Memphis in the 2024 season:
- vs. Charlotte: 86.8%
- at UTSA: 79.9%
- vs. Rice: 84.2%
- vs. UAB: 92.8%
- at Tulane: 47.5%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Memphis would end the 2024 season with a 10-2 record. They would also have two conference defeats, which could see them miss out on a spot in the AAC Championship Game, showcasing how important their regular season finale on the road at Tulane is for both teams.
Prediction for Charlotte vs. Memphis
While they have suffered some significant blowouts in the 2024 season, Charlotte enters Week 9 with a winning record in the AAC and remains in contention for bowl eligibility. Meanwhile, Memphis has lived up to its preseason billing as one of the best teams in the conference, with just a defeat to the Navy Midshipmen blotting its copybook.
Can Charlotte spring a surprise on Saturday, or will the Tigers continue to prowl the path to the AAC Championship Game? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
Although Charlotte’s two AAC wins this season came as an underdog, the team has beaten bad teams and come unstuck when facing elevated competition. Substantial losses came at the hands of the James Madison Dukes, Indiana Hoosiers, Navy Midshipmen, and even a below-par North Carolina Tar Heels team.
The defense and offense both rank in the 100s nationally, averaging just 23.0 points per game on offense while allowing 34.4 on defense. The potential return of talented young quarterback DeShawn Purdie may provide a boost for the 49ers offense after he returned to practice in the last week. He’s been comfortably the most effective and efficient of the team’s QBs.
Running back Hashaun Wilson has also had some monster performances this season, most notably against the East Carolina Pirates. However, Memphis has one of the top rushing defenses in the conference, averaging 4.03 yards per carry and 118.14 yards per game, which is more impressive if you take out the statistical anomaly of facing the Navy option offense.
The 49ers defense likely won’t be able to hold a Memphis offense that has averaged 34.1 points per game. Quarterback Seth Henigan leads the AAC in completion percentage, spraying the ball around with ease. Seven different players have double-digit receptions, including running back Mario Anderson who figures to be the difference-maker after averaging 6.1 yards per carry with 13 total touchdowns in 2024.
Prediction: Charlotte 20, Memphis 42
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