The Oklahoma State Cowboys are on the road this Saturday, heading to Waco to take on the Baylor Bears in a game that could prove crucial for both teams—especially for Mike Gundy’s Cowboys as they look to protect a significant college football record.
Our Oklahoma State vs. Baylor preview dives into the key details, from the latest betting odds to each team’s projected path through the rest of the 2024 season.
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor Betting Preview
All Oklahoma State vs. Baylor odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Pick ’em - Spread
Baylor -6.5 - Moneyline
Baylor -250, Oklahoma State +205 - Over/Under
63.5 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
McLane Stadium | Waco, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
92 degrees, sunny and hot, 6 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPN+
A longtime fixture on the college football calendar, Oklahoma State and Baylor avoided each other in the Big 12 a year ago, but the last time the Cowboys came to Waco, they left with an 11-point victory. Gundy’s team also boasts a 23-19 winning record over their conference rival, but the Bears will always have the 2021 Big 12 Championship game to revel in.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
DraftKings makes Baylor a seven-point favorite heading into the game, and the Bears are 2-1 outright and against the spread when favored. That said, the only conference game they’ve been fancied to win, they lost. Coming off a big win over Texas Tech will give them confidence, especially since Oklahoma State has lost four straight. The Cowboys covered while losing to BYU, and there’s a good chance of a similar outcome in Waco on Saturday.
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Oklahoma State has a 50.4% chance of winning at Baylor on Saturday, which would give them their first Big 12 victory of the season. CFN FPM accurately predicted the Cowboys’ losses to the Utah Utes, Kansas State Wildcats, and BYU Cougars, reflecting some success in projecting their results.
However, our metric projected a similar winning probability for the loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers, showcasing that anything can happen in games as tight as the one expected at Baylor.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the 2024 season, which would give Gundy’s team a 6-6 regular season record, their lowest since 2018:
- at Baylor: 50.4%
- vs. Arizona State: 53.4%
- at TCU: 48.2%
- vs. Texas Tech: 53.4%
- at Colorado: 42.6%
Baylor’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Baylor has a 49.6% chance of beating Oklahoma State on Saturday, according to our metric. Although the CFN FPM accurately predicted wins over Tarleton State and the Air Force Falcons, we also had the Bears as a 5.5-point underdog for the Week 8 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
- vs. Oklahoma State: 49.6%
- vs. TCU: 50.6%
- at West Virginia: 34.2%
- at Houston: 66.4%
- vs. Kansas: 60.6%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, the Bears would end the year with a 6-6 record, returning to bowl eligibility after only scraping a three-win campaign a year ago. However, several coin-flip games could define the direction of the season — and head coach Dave Aranda’s job security.
Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
Both teams had higher hopes than a 3-4 record entering this Week 9 clash, especially the Cowboys, who many expected to step up as Big 12 contenders with Texas and Oklahoma moving to the SEC. Instead, Oklahoma State vs. Baylor now looms as a must-win battle as both programs fight for bowl eligibility.
Can the Cowboys pull their season back from the brink after a four-game skid, or will the Bears gain momentum after a key victory in their last outing? Who has the upper hand, and where will the game’s pivotal moments unfold?
Oklahoma State’s offensive fate largely rests on Ollie Gordon II. After a rocky offseason, the reigning Doak Walker Award winner has struggled to recapture the form that once made him a Heisman hopeful. Though he surpassed 100 yards in the season opener and again in the loss to BYU, he’s found little success elsewhere, failing to score in multiple games, including three losses.
Gordon’s presence initially opened up the passing attack for Alan Bowman, but inconsistency and injuries have since slowed the Cowboys, with Mike Gundy’s squad failing to top 20 points in losses to West Virginia, BYU, and Utah. No Oklahoma State quarterback has managed a completion rate above 60%.
Defensively, Baylor has held firm against the run, giving up just 3.83 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns, even with a high volume of attempts (largely due to their matchup with Air Force). Linebacker Matt Jones has been a standout, regularly stopping ball carriers in the backfield.
On the Cowboys’ side, injuries have severely impacted their defense. Key players like Collin Oliver and Nicholas Martin have missed time, and Cameron Epps announced he tore his ACL on Wednesday. Although Trey Rucker might return, the Cowboys’ defense remains vulnerable as they prepare to face Sawyer Robertson and the Bears.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 27, Baylor 30
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