It’s perhaps an under-the-radar game from a national perspective, but when the SMU Mustangs and Duke Blue Devils take to the field on Saturday night, there’s plenty to play for. Who will emerge victorious from an exciting ACC encounter?
Our SMU vs. Duke prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
SMU vs. Duke Betting Preview
All SMU vs. Duke odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
- CFN FPM Spread
SMU -4 - Spread
SMU -11 - Moneyline
SMU -425, Duke +330 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game time
8 p.m. ET - Location
Wallace Wade Stadium | Durham, NC - Predicted Weather at Kick
53 degrees, mostly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How to Watch
ACC Network
You won’t find much historical relevance here, as college football conference realignment throws together two teams that haven’t met since 1956. The Blue Devils won both previous encounters, including the last time they collided in Durham, with both games being low-scoring affairs. That would play into Duke’s favor on Saturday night, but this isn’t aint the SMU vs. Duke matchup your great-grandpa might remember from a bygone time.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
SMU is a favorite everywhere you look, and although CFN FPM has this being a closer affair than the bookmakers, they should remain undefeated in ACC play on Saturday night. Unless the spread line comes down a couple of points, I fancy Duke to cover despite SMU being 5-1 ATS this year.
SMU’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, SMU has a 61.9% chance of getting the job done on Saturday night. Our metric has nearly always been in lockstep with the Mustangs this year, predicting their loss to the BYU Cougars. That said, we projected a loss to the Louisville Cardinals, so there is some margin for error.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the rest of the SMU 2024 campaign:
- at Duke: 61.9%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 60.6%
- vs. Boston College: 74.9%
- at Virginia: 65.7%
- vs. California: 73%
If these win probabilities were to hold true, the Mustangs would march through the ACC, going undefeated in conference play with just one out-of-conference loss on their resume. With the Clemson Tigers and Miami Hurricanes avoiding each other in the regular season, there’s a legitimate chance of a three-way tie.
Duke’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM gives the Blue Devils a 38.1% chance of halting the Mustangs and coming away with a victory on Saturday evening. Our metric has favored Duke in every game except the loss to Georgia Tech, making them a 5.5-point underdog in their only loss of the season to date.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Blue Devils’ 2024 campaign:
- vs. SMU: 38.1%
- at Miami (FL): 14.1%
- at NC State: 50.8%
- vs. Virginia Tech: 49.6%
- vs. Wake Forest: 63.1%
If those win probabilities were to hold true, Duke would end the year with an 8-4 overall record and a 4-4 conference record. That’s one win better in the regular season than the final year under Mike Elko, which would perhaps defy some outside expectations of the program this year. It’s worth noting that games against NC State and Virginia Tech could go either way.
Prediction for SMU vs. Duke
After a shaky start to the season, Rhett Lashlee’s SMU side has handled the step up from the AAC to the ACC with aplomb. Entering Saturday night’s showdown, it is one of just four teams in the ACC without a conference loss. Meanwhile, Duke has surprised many with their 6-1 start after a coaching staff change ahead of the 2024 college football campaign.
Can the Mustangs keep the pressure on atop the ACC with a win? Will Manyy Diaz engineer an upset win to position the Blue Devils right behind the top programs in the conference? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
Starting with the home team, their advantage lies purely on defense. Diaz arrived in Durham after serving as the defensive coordinator for the Penn State Nittany Lions. While his head coaching tenure at Miami was largely disappointing, he’s always been able to produce top-notch defensive units.
That’s how the Blue Devils have won this season. With just 17.3 points per game allowed, Duke leads the ACC in scoring defense. They’ve given up just six passing touchdowns all year while allowing a conference-low 4.9 yards per attempt and. Only Miami has allowed fewer yards of offense than the Blue Devils’ 306.1 yards per game.
Jaylen Stinson, Chandler Rivers, and Joshua Pickett have all been outstanding, ensuring a no-fly zone in the Duke secondary. However, despite never allowing more than 24 points in a game all year, they’ve been involved in one-score contests against every Power Four opponent due to an ineffective offense that averages just 17.3 points per game.
That won’t cut the mustard when faced with battling an offense like SMU possesses. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets beat up on the Blue Devils on the ground in Duke’s only defeat of the season, and with Brashard Smith’s ability out of the backfield combined with the dual-threat capability of Kevin Jennings, the Mustangs should ride in and out of Durham with another win.
Prediction: SMU 30, Duke 21
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