The Vanderbilt Commodores are a testament to the parity the era of the transfer portal and Name, Image, and Likeness have created in college football. Clark Lea was 2-22 in SEC play to begin his tenure. The Commodores are sitting at 2-1 in conference play this season and will have plenty of opportunities to rack up more wins.
But can they challenge a Texas Longhorns team coming off a loss? Find out in our Texas vs. Vanderbilt prediction.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt Betting Preview
All Texas vs. Vanderbilt odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas -12 - Spread
Texas -18.5 - Moneyline
Texas -1100, Vanderbilt +700 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 4:15 p.m. ET - Location
FirstBank Stadium | Nashville, Tenn. - Predicted Weather at Kick
72 degrees, partly cloudy, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
SEC Network
The early spread is Texas -18.5. The line has settled here after various sportsbooks opened at different numbers, with some moving down from -19 and others moving up from -18. With a total of 53.5 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 36-17 in favor of the Longhorns.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Texas’ Winning Probability
FPM isn’t quite as high on the Longhorns as Vegas’ spread, giving Texas an 81.1% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 12 points. The Longhorns will be heavy favorites in every game until a tough final game at Texas A&M.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Florida: 93.1%
- at Arkansas: 83.5%
- vs. Kentucky: 92.8%
- at Texas A&M: 53.4%
Vanderbilt’s Winning Probability
The schedule looks substantially different now than it did two months ago for the Commodores, as there are several winnable games left. The Commodores have an 18.9% chance to beat Texas, but FPM favors the Commodores in two of their remaining games.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Auburn: 65.1%
- vs. South Carolina: 61.9%
- at LSU: 17.2%
- vs. Tennessee: 25.8%
Prediction for Texas vs. Vanderbilt
I’m still not sure what to think about both the Longhorns and Commodores, making this a difficult game to handicap.
I wasn’t surprised that the Longhorns struggled against Georgia last week, though the complete lack of offense in the first half was concerning. The Longhorns had one of the easiest schedules in the country over the first half of the season, especially in hindsight given what we now know about Michigan.
So the data points are a bunch of blowout wins against overmatched teams and a big loss to one of the best teams in the country. I am mildly interested in where Steve Sarkisian goes with the quarterback “battle.” I get why he subbed in Arch Manning on Saturday, but the fact that it ultimately made no difference and lasted just two possessions strikes me as odd.
Quinn Ewers is the guy for now, and he faces a Vanderbilt team that has been one of the country’s great surprises. However, the Commodores have been inconsistent, losing to Georgia State amid wins over Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Kentucky.
I’m extremely interested to see the Commodores against a team with two strong units, as most of their games have come against teams lacking on one side of the ball. I’m also interested to see how quarterback Diego Pavia holds up against a consistent pass rush, which he’ll face against a dominant Texas front.
The scoreline was deceptive between Texas and Georgia, as there was just one scoring drive over 55 yards. Neither team moved the ball well, and I wonder if there’s a formula for beating Texas that doesn’t involve the offense gifting the opposition multiple short fields.
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That being said, I think it’s telling that the Longhorns struggled mightily against their first two opponents with two decent units.
I don’t think Texas’ offense has another game in which it goes 2-for-15 on third downs, especially against a Vanderbilt defense that struggles on that down.
That being said, we’ve yet to see this Vanderbilt offense be shut down, and I think the Commodores do enough to cover. I see a similar game to last week, but a bit tighter with more offense and the Longhorns on the other side of things.
Prediction: Texas 31, Vanderbilt 20
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