The SEC in 2024 has been nothing short of thrilling, with surprises shaking up each week. As some anticipated (myself included), the Oklahoma Sooners’ offense is faltering, though their defense has kept them in contention more often than not.
Now, the Sooners find themselves on a slippery slope, needing a big turnaround as they face an Ole Miss Rebels team clinging to its College Football Playoff aspirations. Will the Sooners step up to the challenge against the Rebels? Dive into our Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss prediction to see how we think it’ll play out.
Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Betting Preview
All Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -12 - Spread
Ole Miss -19 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -1200, Oklahoma +750 - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Oct. 26, Noon ET - Location
Vaught Hemingway Stadium | Oxford, Miss. - Predicted Weather at Kick
73 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The early spread is Ole Miss -19, which is a fairly standard number for lopsided conference matchups. The public has bet this down after betting it up slightly, as the line was posted at -20 and has seen ranges from -21 to now -19. With a total of 49.5 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 34-15 in favor of Ole Miss.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Oklahoma’s Winning Probability
FPM may be a bit behind on Oklahoma’s downfall, still giving them an 18.4% chance to win the game which translates to an implied spread of about 12 points. The Sooners have a brutal remaining stretch and are heavy underdogs in four of five remaining games.
- vs. Maine: 98.0%
- at Missouri: 22.6%
- vs. Alabama: 19.8%
- at LSU: 11.4%
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
Ole Miss will be desperate to win as a looming game with Georgia could doom its College Football Playoff hopes. FPM has the Rebels as 12-point favorites with an 81.6% chance to win the game. They’ll be strong favorites in four of their five remaining games.
- at Arkansas: 66.9%
- vs. Georgia: 33.1%
- at Florida: 71.6%
- vs. Mississippi State: 95.2%
Prediction for Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss
Oh, Oklahoma. Who could have seen this nosedive coming?
Well, to be fair, the signs were there, even back in the offseason.
The Sooners lost Dillon Gabriel to Oregon and shrugged, putting all their chips on Jackson Arnold. But Arnold struggled out of the gate, dealing with a banged-up O-line and an injury-depleted receiving corps. In response, Brent Venables turned to true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr.
Predictably, that didn’t pan out either. Hawkins was benched after just nine snaps (and three turnovers) against a fierce South Carolina defense, leading to Arnold’s return.
This week, now former offensive coordinator Seth Littrell took the fall.
But maybe it’s time to accept that Oklahoma’s offense is simply in shambles. After the game, South Carolina’s Shane Beamer even joked that his scout team had outperformed Oklahoma’s offense in practice.
Now, the big question is: where does Oklahoma go from here? There was talk of redshirting Arnold, but he exhausted that option last Saturday. So, do they pack it in for the season or rally for their ousted OC?
Realistically, it might not make a difference.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Ole Miss rolls in with one of the top run defenses around and a powerful passing game to exploit Oklahoma’s defensive gaps.
Saturday’s game was a nightmare 26-point loss for the Sooners, but the truth was even worse. South Carolina had their backups in by the third quarter and still held Oklahoma to zero net yards over the final 22 minutes.
Lane Kiffin, hoping to make a statement for the College Football Playoff committee, won’t be as forgiving.
Ole Miss might not score at will, but with Oklahoma’s offense sputtering, they may not have to. If the Rebels take an early lead, they’ll push the tempo and won’t let up.
This could get ugly, but on the upside, I trust the Sooners’ defense to keep Ole Miss from hitting the over by themselves. With little from Oklahoma’s offense, I’d bet this one stays under 48.
Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Oklahoma 6
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.