The SEC is a strange place in 2024, with surprising results every week. Perhaps unsurprising to some, (myself included) the Oklahoma Sooners offense is a trainwreck, but the defense has kept them in most games.
The Sooners are spiraling, and to stop that tailspin, they’ll need to defeat an angry Ole Miss Rebels team that has seen its College Football Playoff hopes dwindle. Can the Sooners challenge the Rebels? Find out what we think in this Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss prediction.
Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Betting Preview
All Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ole Miss -12 - Spread
Ole Miss -21 - Moneyline
Ole Miss -1600, Oklahoma +900 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
Saturday, Oct. 26, Noon ET - Location
Vaught Hemingway Stadium | Oxford, Miss. - Predicted Weather at Kick
73 degrees, sunny, 5 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The early spread is Ole Miss -21, which is a fairly standard number for lopsided conference matchups. The public has bet this up slightly, as the line was posted at -20.5. With a total of 48 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 35-14 in favor of Ole Miss.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Oklahoma’s Winning Probability
FPM may be a bit behind on Oklahoma’s downfall, still giving them an 18.4% chance to win the game which translates to an implied spread of about 12 points. The Sooners have a brutal remaining stretch and are heavy underdogs in four of five remaining games.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Maine: 98.0%
- at Missouri: 22.6%
- vs. Alabama: 19.8%
- at LSU: 11.4%
Ole Miss’ Winning Probability
Ole Miss will be desperate to win as a looming game with Georgia could doom its College Football Playoff hopes. FPM has the Rebels as 12-point favorites with an 81.6% chance to win the game. They’ll be strong favorites in four of their five remaining games.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Arkansas: 66.9%
- vs. Georgia: 33.1%
- at Florida: 71.6%
- vs. Mississippi State: 95.2%
Prediction for Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss
Oh, Oklahoma. Who could have foreseen this fall?
Without taking a victory lap here, the answer is that it was pretty obvious this was in the range of possible outcomes, even as far back as the middle of the offseason.
The Sooners lost Dillon Gabriel to Oregon and reportedly weren’t worried but threw their eggs in Jackson Arnold’s basket. He struggled early behind a makeshift offensive line and M.A.S.H. unit of a receiving corps, so Brent Venables made the change to true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr.
Unsurprisingly, that petered out as well, as he was pulled for Arnold after just nine snaps (and three turnovers) against South Carolina’s nasty front.
This week, former offensive coordinator Seth Littrell was the scapegoat.
But have we considered that Oklahoma’s offense is simply terrible? South Carolina’s Shane Beamer said after the game that the scout team played better in practice than Oklahoma did on Saturday.
I’m most interested in where Oklahoma goes in the immediate future. There were talks about redshirting Arnold, but he burned that Saturday. Now, does the team fold for the year or come out fiery in honor of its former offensive coordinator?
Unfortunately, it might not matter.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
Ole Miss has one of the best run defenses in the country and a passing attack on offense to beat Oklahoma over the top, one of the few things the stingy Sooners defense has occasionally struggled to stop.
The scoreboard on Saturday showed a humiliating 26-point loss for the Sooners, but it was worse than that. South Carolina began rotating in the backups on offense as early as midway through the third quarter, and the Gamecocks gained a net of zero yards in the last 22 minutes of game time.
Lane Kiffin, knowing he may need to rely on some style points to impress the College Football Playoff committee, won’t be so kind.
Ole Miss won’t move the ball with ease, but Oklahoma won’t move the ball at all. If the Rebels get up early, they won’t call off the dogs and will continue to run it up.
This could get ugly, but on the bright side, I do trust the Sooners’ defense enough to stop the Rebels from hitting the over by themselves. Oklahoma’s offense won’t provide much help, and I think it stays under 48.
Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Oklahoma 6
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.