The ACC is starting to look more and more like the Big 12 — a solid conference with plenty of decent teams that could beat each other every week. Just look at the conference schedule this week. Four of the seven ACC matchups this week have one-score spreads, while two others sit just barely into double-digits.
That makes a Friday matchup of 4-3 teams fascinating as the Louisville Cardinals take on the Boston College Eagles. Both 2-3 in their last five, find out what might happen in this Louisville vs. Boston College prediction.
Louisville vs. Boston College Betting Preview
All Louisville vs. Boston College odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisville -4 - Spread
Louisville -6.5 - Moneyline
Louisville -245, Boston College +200 - Over/Under
53.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 25, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Alumni Stadium | Chestnut Hill, Mass. - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, clear, seven mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
The early spread is Louisville -6.5, as the Cardinals are almost universally seen as the better of the two teams. The public has bet this down slightly, as the line was posted at -7. With a total of 53.5 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 30-23 in favor of Louisville.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Louisville’s Winning Probability
FPM is close to the spread here, giving the Cardinals a 61.9% chance to win the game, translating to an implied spread of about 6.5 points in favor of Louisville. The Cardinals have a wide range of outcomes this season, as they’re slight favorites in three of five remaining games.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Boston College: 61.9%
- at Clemson: 20.7%
- at Stanford: 77.4%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 54.3%
- at Kentucky: 50.8%
Boston College’s Winning Probability
FPM is slightly higher on Boston College in this one, as the metric has them as four-point underdogs. The Monarchs have a 38.1% chance to win the game. The Eagles will be underdogs in four of their remaining five games.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Louisville: 38.1%
- vs. Syracuse: 47.2%
- at SMU: 25.1%
- vs. North Carolina: 67.7%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 39.4%
Prediction for Louisville vs. Boston College
There are a ton of factors at play here that could point you in either direction, from underlying numbers to matchups to narrative.
On one hand, you have the home/road splits for these teams, as Boston College is 3-0 this season at home, while Louisville has benefitted from five home games, going 1-1 in their only two games away from L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Then there’s each team’s recent play. Even though each team is 2-3 in their last five, they’ve gotten there in very different ways.
Louisville is 1-3 in one-score games this season, with losses to three teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
Boston College is 2-1 in one-score games after squeaking out home wins against Michigan State and Western Kentucky and getting a late touchdown against Missouri to make the score of a game well-in-hand look closer.
What I’m most interested in, though, is one particular matchup.
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The Boston College quarterback was third in the ACC in rushing last season, first among quarterbacks. But this year, he’s failed to reach 20 yards on the ground in five of seven games in Bill O’Brien’s pro-style system.
Louisville has been awful at stopping dual-threat quarterbacks from running. In fact, last week’s loss to Miami was the first FBS game in which an opposing quarterback didn’t lead his team in rushing against the Cardinals. Even then, it was Cam Ward’s 22-yard scramble on 3rd-and-17 that ultimately doomed Louisville.
The question is: Can (or will) Thomas Castellanos run on Louisville’s defense?
Boston College has some pieces on offense, but the Eagles have scored between 14 and 28 points against FBS opposition this year.
Louisville is a better team than Boston College, and I trust Jeff Brohm in a close game more than Bill O’Brien (Brohm was 5-1 last season in one-score games, and I think Louisville’s struggles in that department this year are mostly misfortune).
That being said, I like the Eagles to cover at home in a low-scoring game. If you can find Boston College +7, I’d feel even better. I like Louisville outright, so this should be a close game. In fact, I’m completely in agreement with the FPM.
Prediction: Louisville 28, Boston College 24
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