When a 12-team College Football Playoff was announced, it’s likely no one was happier than the Penn State Nittany Lions. Always second fiddle to the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines, the expanded access to meaningful postseason play must have been a breath of fresh air to a traditionally strong — but not elite — team like the Nittany Lions.
The schedule helps them and barring a slip-up, Penn State will finally reach the college football promised land.
Standing in their way is the Wisconsin Badgers, a team that desperately wants a signature win and be the beneficiary of Penn State’s slip-up. Can the Badgers pull off the upset? Find out which way we lean in this Penn State vs. Wisconsin prediction.
Penn State vs. Wisconsin Betting Preview
All Penn State vs. Wisconsin odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Penn State -11.5 - Spread
Penn State -6.5 - Moneyline
Penn State -230, Wisconsin +190 - Over/Under
48 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Camp Randall Stadium | Madison, Wisc. - Predicted Weather at Kick
60 degrees, partly cloudy, seven mph winds - How To Watch
NBC
The early spread is Penn State -6.5, as Vegas seems to view this as a trap game. The public hasn’t jumped on this at all, as the line is unchanged. With a total of 48 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 27-21 in favor of Penn State.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Penn State’s Winning Probability
The Nittany Lions have an 80.6% chance to win the game, per FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 11.5 points. The Nittany Lions have one key game remaining, a true toss-up against Ohio State with major Big Ten and College Football Playoff implications.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Wisconsin: 80.6%
- vs. Ohio State: 52.5%
- vs. Washington: 92.9%
- at Purdue: 95.7%
- at Minnesota: 85.9%
- vs. Maryland: 94.5%
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
FPM is lower on Wisconsin in this one, as the metric has them as 11.5-point underdogs. The Badgers have a 19.4% chance to win the game. The Badgers will be underdogs in all but one of their remaining games.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Penn State: 19.4%
- at Iowa: 46.2%
- vs. Oregon: 14.1%
- at Nebraska: 46.2%
- vs. Minnesota: 63.6%
Prediction for Penn State vs. Wisconsin
This Vegas line is equal parts frustrating and hilarious to me as a cynical college football bettor.
Look at any sim or metric and you’ll see Penn State is about 10-15 points better than Wisconsin, even on the road. The problem with simply taking the Nittany Lions is that we’ve seen this movie before. Every time Penn State seems to get close to reaching the College Football Playoff, there’s some sort of letdown that stops the Nittany Lions in their tracks.
It’s also a look-ahead game here. Ohio State comes to Happy Valley next Saturday and a win virtually locks Penn State into the Big Ten Championship Game (and, subsequently, the College Football Playoff).
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The schedule after Ohio State is one of the weakest in the Power Four, so these next two weeks are crucial. Vegas expects a close, low-scoring game as the Badgers will try to shorten the game and limit possessions.
Weirdly, I trust Drew Allar here. The interceptions against USC were an anomaly for him, and I expect a clean, bounceback game. Penn State should be able to run the ball, and no one on Wisconsin’s defense can match up with Tyler Warren at tight end.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions are susceptible to exploisve passes, but Wisconsin doesn’t have the firepower to make them pay.
I’m holding my nose and taking the Nittany Lions here, but I wouldn’t be completely surprised if we see a big-game collapse.
Give me Penn State and the points in a game that makes it over the total.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 21
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