The Sunflower Showdown between the Kansas Jayhawks and Kansas State Wildcats might seem one-sided on paper, with Kansas holding a 65-51-5 lead in the series. However, recent history paints a different picture, with the Wildcats taking control in the last 15 meetings.
Prepare for Saturday night’s clash as we dive into the latest odds, spread breakdown, and our Kansas vs. Kansas State prediction.
Kansas vs. Kansas State Betting Preview
All Kansas vs. Kansas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kansas State -12.5 - Spread
Kansas State -9.5 - Moneyline
Kansas State -340, Kansas +270 - Over/Under
55.5 points - Game Time
8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kan. - Predicted Weather at Kick
52 degrees, 4 mph winds, clear with periodic clouds - How To Watch
ESPN2
Although the under has hit in five of the last seven games between these two teams, the over is the trendy play:
- The total has gone over in four of Kansas’ last five contests and four of Kansas State’s last six.
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Kansas ATS has been far less productive, going 1-6 in the last seven contests, and the K-State moneyline appears juicy, as the program is 10-1 straight up in its last 11 at home.
Kansas’ Winning Probability
The FPM views this game as a near-certain loss for the Jayhawks, giving them just a 17.4% chance of winning. At 2-5, they’re fighting for a slim chance at bowl eligibility and some pride. Even if they manage to pull off an upset against the Wildcats, the path to another win looks challenging:
- vs. Iowa State: 23.4%
- at BYU: 10.9%
- vs. Colorado: 42.6%
- at Baylor: 39.4%
Kansas State’s Winning Probability
Meanwhile, at 6-1, Kansas State is in the hunt for a spot in the Big 12 Championship and a berth in the expanded College Football Playoff. Aside from a season finale against undefeated Iowa State, the Wildcats boast win probabilities of 74% or higher for the rest of their schedule, starting with an 82.6% chance against Kansas.
- at Houston: 87.4%
- vs. Arizona State: 74.6%
- vs. Cincinnati: 80.2%
- at Iowa State: 42.6%
Prediction for Kansas vs. Kansas State
Coming off a dominant 42-14 win over Houston, Kansas managed to break free from a three-game losing skid. Meanwhile, Kansas State has been riding high, stringing together three consecutive wins, including a commanding 45-18 victory over West Virginia last week.
Both teams boast top-20 rushing offenses nationally, but only Kansas State can claim a top-five run defense, ranking fifth (while Kansas sits at 73rd).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Then there’s the question of the passing game inconsistency. Neither Jalon Daniels nor Avery Johnson has stood out through the air, though Johnson has a slight edge. Daniels has thrown three more interceptions (eight to five) and trails in completion rate, with nearly six points separating them (56.6% to 62.4%).
Kansas State is favored to win and cover, but in-state rivalry games are known for their unpredictability. Taking the over might be the “safe” bet, as the Wildcats have scored 31+ points in all but one game this season, while the Jayhawks have hit 27+ points over the last four weeks.
Prediction: Kansas State 38, Kansas 27
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