Seemingly every game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and TCU Horned Frogs is a thriller, with the all-time series tight at 33-30-3 in favor of the former — 2024’s edition should be no different.
Our Texas Tech vs. TCU preview breaks down the matchup, provides key betting insights, and guides you toward making the best wagering choices.
Texas Tech vs. TCU Betting Preview
All Texas Tech vs. TCU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
TCU -1 - Spread
TCU -7 - Moneyline
TCU -290, Texas Tech +235 - Over/Under
67 points - Game Time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 26 - Location
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
76 degrees, 8 mph winds, mostly sunny - How To Watch
Fox
After opening at TCU -4, bettors played the line up to -7, even further away from the FPM’s outlook of the contest. The Horned Frogs are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games, making the line even more puzzling.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
However, Spooky Season hasn’t been kind to Texas Tech, as the program is 0-6 ATS in their last six Week 9 contests. As far as the total, trends point toward the under, which has hit in six of the Red Raiders’ last seven on the road and four of TCU’s last five at home.
Texas Tech’s Winning Probability
Texas Tech is in the midst of its best season in the Joey McGuire era, going 5-2 and 3-1 in the Big 12 thus far. However, the final stretch will test the program’s resilience, with sub-54% win probabilities for the rest of the season, including 48.8% against TCU.
- at Iowa State: 24.5%
- vs. Colorado: 53.8%
- at Oklahoma State: 46.6%
- vs. West Virginia: 52.8%
TCU’s Winning Probability
TCU has ground out a 4-3 record this year, and the second half of the schedule is no easier. Beginning with a 51.2% win probability against the Red Raiders, the Horned Frogs own between 49-52% rates to end the season.
- at Baylor: 49.4%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 51.8%
- vs. Arizona: 50.4%
- at Cincinnati: 49.6%
Prediction for Texas Tech vs. TCU
Texas Tech’s five wins are even more impressive when considering the offense is largely playing on its own. Just last week, Baylor came into Lubbock, Texas, and throttled the Red Raiders 59-35, causing many to jump off the wagon. Not me.
McGuire’s squad is going to want to bounce back after such an embarrassment, and who better to lash out at than an in-state rival? The Horned Frogs are coming off a 13-7 snoozefest victory over the Cam Rising-less Utah Utes, but it was still an impressive showing by the defense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
But Utah, led by true freshman Isaac Wilson, is no Texas Tech, led by Behren Morton. Outside of some drops and ill-timed penalties and sacks, the offense has thrived through the air and on the ground. Morton has limited turnovers (just three INTs on 270 attempts), and RB Tahj Brooks has generated 804 yards and eight scores on 104 carries.
TCU’s Josh Hoover has played well, but there is little to no running (3.3 yards per carry) nor kicking (8-of-13) game to speak of. Give me the Red Raiders ATS and straight up, as well as the over in 2024’s Battle for the Saddle Trophy.
Prediction: Texas Tech 38, TCU 35
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