My how the mighty have fallen. The Florida State Seminoles have gone from a trendy playoff pick to an FBS bottom-feeder in a matter of weeks, and the schedule does them no favors the rest of the way.
After losing one of the worst football games I’ve ever seen last week, the Seminoles get the undefeated Miami Hurricanes on the road this week. Do they have any chance to keep it close? Find out what we think in this Florida State vs. Miami prediction.
Florida State vs. Miami Betting Preview
All Florida State vs. Miami odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -22.5 - Spread
Miami -20.5 - Moneyline
Miami -1450, Florida State +850 - Over/Under
55 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Hard Rock Stadium | Miami - Predicted Weather at Kick
79 degrees, cloudy, 14 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The early spread is Miami -20.5, as the Seminoles have been a mess. The undefeated Hurricanes have squeaked by a few conference foes, but Florida State has really struggled; with a total of 55 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 38-17 in favor of Miami.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Florida State’s Winning Probability
The Seminoles have just a 5.2% chance to win the game, per FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 20.5 points. The Seminoles have three extremely difficult games, a true toss-up, and an FCS snoozer remaining on the schedule.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Miami (FL): 5.2%
- vs. North Carolina: 50.0%
- at Notre Dame: 6.1%
- vs. Charleston Southern: 91.3%
- vs. Florida: 29.7%
Miami’s Winning Probability
FPM favors Miami in this one, as the metric has them as 22.5-point favorites. The Hurricanes have a 94.8% chance to win the game. The Hurricanes will be heavy favorites in every remaining game and have close to a 40% chance to finish the year undefeated.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Florida State: 94.8%
- vs. Duke: 85.9%
- at Georgia Tech: 70.3%
- vs. Wake Forest: 93.6%
- at Syracuse: 75.3%
Prediction for Florida State vs. Miami
This is an easy preview to write because I don’t need stats, metrics, or nuance here.
Floirda State is an abomination. Even with Miami’s suspect defense, the Seminoles aren’t going to move the ball or do anything that resembles offensive competence. I’m typically wary of big spreads, especially for a team like Miami that has won so many close games this season.
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It doesn’t matter. Vegas is typically slow to catch up to the worst teams in the country and struggles to make spreads big enough. It’s under three touchdowns? Hammer the Hurricanes.
This isn’t a look-around spot, as the Hurricanes will want to humiliate their rivals and perhaps deal them a big enough blow on the field to affect them on the recruiting trail.
Cam Ward is gunning for a Heisman Trophy, and while the Florida State defensive front isn’t one of the worst units on the team, he should still have plenty of time to throw and plenty of open receivers down the field to throw to.
If it sounds cynical, it should. There’s no way to overstate how terrible Florida State has been this season. With the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff within reach, Miami can’t afford to slip up, and I don’t expect another rollercoaster of a game because Florida State’s offense isn’t capable of challenging good teams.
It would take about four Cam Ward pick-sixes to make this a game, as the Seminoles haven’t scored 20 points on offense since the opener in Ireland.
Miami probably calls off the dogs before it goes over … but barely.
Prediction: Miami 41, Florida State 9
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