How quickly things can change. The Florida State Seminoles have plummeted from playoff hopefuls to barely a blip on the FBS radar in just a few weeks, and the path forward isn’t getting any easier.
Following a lackluster performance in one of the most forgettable games in recent memory, the Seminoles now face a steep challenge as they head on the road to face the undefeated Miami Hurricanes. Can they keep it competitive? Here’s our breakdown of the Florida State vs. Miami clash.
Florida State vs. Miami Betting Preview
All Florida State vs. Miami odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Miami -22.5 - Spread
Miami -21 - Moneyline
Miami -1450, Florida State +850 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Oct. 26, 7 p.m. ET - Location
Hard Rock Stadium | Miami - Predicted Weather at Kick
79 degrees, cloudy, 14 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The spread is Miami -21, as the Seminoles have been a mess. The undefeated Hurricanes have squeaked by a few conference foes, but Florida State has really struggled; with a total of 54.5 points, Vegas’ numbers imply a score close to 38-17 in favor of Miami.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Florida State’s Winning Probability
The Seminoles have just a 5.2% chance to win the game, per FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 20.5 points. The Seminoles have three extremely difficult games, a true toss-up, and an FCS snoozer remaining on the schedule.
- at Miami (FL): 5.2%
- vs. North Carolina: 50.0%
- at Notre Dame: 6.1%
- vs. Charleston Southern: 91.3%
- vs. Florida: 29.7%
Miami’s Winning Probability
FPM favors Miami in this one, as the metric has them as 22.5-point favorites. The Hurricanes have a 94.8% chance to win the game. The Hurricanes will be heavy favorites in every remaining game and have close to a 40% chance to finish the year undefeated.
- vs. Florida State: 94.8%
- vs. Duke: 85.9%
- at Georgia Tech: 70.3%
- vs. Wake Forest: 93.6%
- at Syracuse: 75.3%
Prediction for Florida State vs. Miami
This preview almost writes itself—no need for stats, metrics, or in-depth analysis here.
Florida State has been a disaster. Even with Miami’s shaky defense, the Seminoles lack the offensive firepower to move the ball or show much spark. Normally, I’d hesitate with big spreads, especially since Miami’s had its share of nail-biters this season.
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But this time, it’s different. Vegas often underestimates just how wide the gap can be with struggling teams, and the spread rarely reflects it. If it’s under three touchdowns, the Hurricanes are the play.
This isn’t a trap game—Miami is hungry to make a statement against a rival and potentially disrupt Florida State’s recruiting momentum.
Cam Ward is still in the Heisman conversation, and while Florida State’s defensive front is stronger than most of their units, he should have plenty of time to find his targets downfield.
It might sound harsh, but that’s the reality. Florida State has struggled all season, and with both the ACC Championship and College Football Playoff on the line, Miami won’t leave room for error. I don’t expect another close game—Florida State’s offense just doesn’t have the firepower to compete.
At this rate, it would take something like four Cam Ward pick-sixes for Florida State to keep this one close, as they haven’t scored more than 20 points since their opener in Ireland.
Miami might take its foot off the gas at the end … but only just.
Prediction: Miami 41, Florida State 9
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