Are the Nebraska Cornhuskers cursed?
The Power Four team with the longest bowl drought is one win away from postseason play. Their reward? Dates with the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers and the 5-1 Ohio State Buckeyes. After being blown out in their first attempt to reach six wins, can the Cornhuskers rebound to upset the Buckeyes? Find out which way we lean in this Nebraska vs. Ohio State prediction.
Nebraska vs. Ohio State Betting Preview
All Nebraska vs. Ohio State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Ohio State -18 - Spread
Ohio State -24.5 - Moneyline
Ohio State -3600, Nebraska +1500 - Over/Under
49 points - Game Time
Saturday, Oct. 26, noon ET - Location
Ohio Stadium | Columbus, Ohio - Predicted Weather at Kick
55 degrees, cloudy, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
Fox
The early spread is Ohio State -24.5, as Nebraska’s offense has struggled in recent weeks. That’s indicated both in the spread and in the total, which is sitting at just 49 points. Given those opening numbers, Vegas expects a final score close to 37-12, in favor of the Buckeyes.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Nebraska’s Winning Probability
The Cornhuskers have just an 8.5% chance to win the game, per FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 18 points. This game represents Nebraska’s toughest challenge of the rest of the year, and it’s not particularly close.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Ohio State: 8.5%
- vs. UCLA: 83.5%
- at USC: 46.2%
- vs. Wisconsin: 53.8%
- at Iowa: 45.7%
Ohio State’s Winning Probability
FPM is a bit lower on the Buckeyes in this one, as the metric has them as 18-point favorites. The Buckeyes have a 91.5% chance to win the game. This game represents Ohio State’s third-easiest game of the rest of the year, with a huge game at Penn State looming large.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Nebraska: 91.5%
- at Penn State: 47.5%
- vs. Purdue: 99.5%
- at Northwestern: 95.6%
- vs. Indiana: 75.3%
- vs. Michigan: 90.4%
Prediction for Nebraska vs. Ohio State
Our Football Playoff Meter is an unbelievable tool, and accurate as well, but if there’s one drawback to the metric, it’s that it often underestimates the spread in lopsided games.
Make no mistake: This is a game between two teams in different tiers of the sport. Despite some early success, Nebraska’s offense is one of the worst units in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers have relied on a strong defense, as the offense has failed to reach 30 points in every game against Power Four competition, averaging just 20.2 points in such games.
They’ve struggled lately, scoring just five offensive touchdowns in their last three games and averaging fewer than 2.5 yards per rush in each of the last two games.
Fortunately for the Cornhuskers, an elite defense has kept them in most games, holding opponents to 10 or fewer points in all five wins. Indiana, however, had little issue scoring last week, putting up 56 points and averaging 8.4 yards a play.
Ohio State, outside of a close road loss to a very good Oregon team, has been dominant. The Buckeyes have had no issues moving the ball on strong defenses.
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All of those factors point to a huge Ohio State victory, but the Buckeyes play Penn State in Happy Valley next week. I’m not sure if this is a look-ahead spot as much as it’s a “get up early and play boring football in the second half” type of game for the Buckeyes.
For that reason, and that reason alone, I’m taking the Cornhuskers to cover. That will be on the backs of the defense, though, in an ugly, low-scoring second half.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Nebraska 13
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