Who could have foreseen that LSU and Texas A&M would be the last two teams standing with perfect SEC records as we enter Week 9 of the 2024 college football season?
This budding rivalry has taken on even more significance, with conference standings and playoff hopes hanging in the balance. So, who are we favoring in this pivotal SEC showdown? Dive into our LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction to see where our bets lie.
LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All LSU vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -1.5 - Spread
Texas A&M -1.5 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -118, LSU -102 - Over/Under
54.5 points - Game Time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Kyle Field | College Station, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
While much attention is on the return of the Lone Star State rivalry with the Texas Longhorns, Texas A&M and LSU have quietly developed one of the SEC’s most compelling rivalries, set to be renewed on Saturday night. After a dominant win last year, LSU enters the Week 9 showdown with a 36-23-3 all-time record, but can they maintain their momentum in this crucial matchup?
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The Aggies opened as three-point favorites, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, but by midweek, the line had tightened to just a single point. LSU covered the spread the only other time they were underdogs this season, while Texas A&M holds a 2-1 record against the spread when favored by a field goal or less.
LSU’s Winning Probability
The Tigers have a 47.2% chance to win the game, per CFN FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 1.5 points in the Aggies’ favor. This game represents LSU’s toughest challenge for the rest of the year, followed closely by a showdown with Alabama in Death Valley.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Texas A&M: 47.2%
- vs. Alabama: 53.4%
- at Florida: 79.6%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.8%
- vs. Oklahoma: 88.6%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the Aggies have a 52.8% chance of winning the game. This clash represents Texas A&M’s second-toughest challenge of the year; if they beat LSU on Saturday, the Aggies will likely go into the finale against Texas with one loss.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. LSU: 52.8%
- at South Carolina: 75.1%
- vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
- at Auburn: 86.8%
- vs. Texas: 46.6%
Prediction for LSU vs. Texas A&M
Winning close games often requires a bit of luck more than coaching skill—unless you’re Brian Kelly or Mike Elko. Both coaches have mastered the art of the one-score victory.
This sets up a thrilling showdown on Saturday in College Station, with both teams eyeing a potential College Football Playoff berth. The winner will grab control of the playoff race and take a key step forward in the SEC title chase, especially with Georgia’s win over Texas leaving these two as the last undefeated teams in SEC play.
Offensive line play has been hit-or-miss across the SEC this season, yet these teams boast some of the better lines in the conference—albeit with their own streaks of inconsistency.
This game could come down to who can handle the pressure. Garrett Nussmeier has shown a tendency for mistakes under duress, while Conner Weigman has also struggled when the pocket breaks down. Both quarterbacks have their weak spots when the heat is on.
Only one team’s defensive front has consistently proven capable of derailing an opponent’s offense: Texas A&M’s front seven has been a powerhouse recently. If Nic Scourton can hold his own against LSU’s talented tackles, it might be enough to unsettle Nussmeier.
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In what promises to be a nail-biter, the Aggies’ defensive strength and the home energy from the 12th Man could tip the scales. Look for Texas A&M to control the clock and set a slower tempo, likely keeping the score just under the projected total.
I’m taking Elko’s team to come out on top by a touchdown.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27, LSU 20
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