While the college football world is changing rapidly, some things remain universal truths. One of those is that Mike Elko’s teams will always get better as the year goes on.
That’s true in his first season with the Texas A&M Aggies, as his team has overcome a season-opening loss to Notre Dame by rattling off six straight wins, including three with a backup quarterback. As the LSU Tigers come to town, the College Football Playoff is a real opportunity for each. Where do we lean in this SEC clash? Find out in this LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction.
LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All LSU vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Texas A&M -1.5 - Spread
Texas A&M -3 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -162, LSU +136 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Saturday, Oct. 26, 7:30 ET - Location
Kyle Field | College Station, Texas - Predicted Weather at Kick
80 degrees, sunny, 8 mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
The early spread is Texas A&M -3, which essentially makes this a pick ’em with the Aggies getting a few points for home-field advantage. One of the biggest games of the week, it looks like there’s been some early money on LSU, but the line has not moved.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The Vegas spread of three points and a total of 54 implies a score close to 28-25 in favor of the Aggies.
LSU’s Winning Probability
The Tigers have a 47.2% chance to win the game, per FPM, translating to an implied spread of about 1.5 points in the Aggies’ favor. This game represents LSU’s toughest challenge for the rest of the year, followed closely by a showdown with Alabama in Death Valley.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Texas A&M: 47.2%
- vs. Alabama: 53.4%
- at Florida: 79.6%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 82.8%
- vs. Oklahoma: 88.6%
Texas A&M’s Winning Probability
FPM is closely aligned with the Vegas spread, as the metric has the Aggies as slight 1.5-point favorites. The Aggies have a 52.8% chance to win the game. This game represents Texas A&M’s second-toughest challenge of the year; the Aggies will likely go into the finale against Texas with one loss, should they beat LSU on Saturday.
Here are their winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. LSU: 52.8%
- at South Carolina: 75.1%
- vs. New Mexico State: 99.9%
- at Auburn: 86.8%
- vs. Texas: 46.6%
Prediction for LSU vs. Texas A&M
Typically, winning close games is more luck than coaching skill, but Brian Kelly and Elko probably don’t believe that. After all, both Elko and Kelly are among the game’s elite in one-score winning percentage.
That means Saturday’s game in College Station could come down to the wire, and it’s likely to be electric as each team has hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff.
The winning team will be in the driver’s seat both for a playoff berth and in the SEC title race, as Georgia’s win over Texas has made these the only two undefeated teams in SEC play.
It seems this year that offensive line play has been a struggle across the SEC, but these teams might have the best units, even if they’ve struggled at times.
That means the key is going to be pressure. Garrett Nussmeier has put the ball in harm’s way when pressured, while Conner Weigman has found tough sledding when defenders are closing in. While neither quarterback has been pressured all that often, they’ve struggled a bit when rushed.
Only one team has the defensive front to cause the offense issues though, as Texas A&M’s front seven has been nasty in recent weeks. If Nic Scourton can beat one of LSU’s phenomenal offensive tackles a few times, Nussmeier will struggle a bit.
FREE: Sign up for the College Football Network Newsletter to receive unique stories from the world of college football directly to your inbox!
That might be the difference in an otherwise tight game. The combination of the Aggie front and the 12th Man might be too much to overcome for LSU. The Aggies will aim to control the clock and slow the game, leading to a game that goes slightly under its projected total.
Give me the Aggies by a touchdown.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27, LSU 20
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.