The Sam Houston Bearkats and FIU Panthers got college football Week 9 underway as “Weekday CUSA” returns on Tuesday. Can the Bearkats seal bowl eligibility with a win, or will the Panthers channel the style of their “Vice City” uniforms with a classy win?
Our Sam Houston vs. FIU prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
Sam Houston vs. FIU Betting Preview
All Sam Houston vs. FIU odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Sam Houston -3.5 - Spread
Not Available - Moneyline
Not Available - Over/Under
Not Available - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Pitbull Stadium | Miami, FL - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, partly cloudy and humid, 10 mph winds - How to Watch
ESPNU
Tuesday night marks the second meeting between FIU and Sam Houston. The first edition was a free-scoring slugfest that went to double overtime in Huntsville and resulted in a Panthers win on the road. At that point in the season, KC Keeler’s team had yet to win a single game in their FBS debut, and the Bearkats are a much-improved team this season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Although the official DraftKings odds weren’t available at the time of writing, we can use the CFN FPM as a gauge of how this game should be viewed. Sam Houston is a 3.5-point favorite for Tuesday night’s game and is 5-2 covering the spread this year. They’re 3-1 covering as a favorite this year, with the one coming from the Western Kentucky defeat where CFN FPM made them an underdog.
Sam Houston’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, Sam Houston has a 60.6% chance of taking down the Panthers in Pitbull Stadium on Tuesday night, which would secure bowl eligibility for the program. Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Bearkats in the 2024 college football season:
- at FIU: 60.6%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 64.1%
- at Kennesaw State: 82.6%
- at Jacksonville State: 47.5%
- vs. Liberty: 34.2%
If those win probabilities hold true, Sam Houston would end the season with an 8-4 record, securing bowl eligibility in their second full season as an FBS outfit. It would mark a remarkable turnaround from a 3-9 debut campaign.
However, with two further projected CUSA defeats in addition to the Week 8 defeat to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, they would likely miss out on a spot in the CUSA Championship Game.
FIU’s Winning Probability
Conversely, FIU is given just a 39.4% chance of winning this “Weekday CUSA” matchup. Having lost two in a row, the Panthers desperately need to overcome the odds if they want to salvage anything from this season.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for FIU this season:
- vs. Sam Houston: 39.4%
- vs. New Mexico State: 64.6%
- at Jacksonville State: 33.1%
- at Kennesaw State: 73.4%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 58.9%
If these win probabilities were to hold true, the Panthers would end 2024 with a 5-7 record. While that would be a one-win improvement compared to the 2023 campaign, FIU would miss out on bowl eligibility for the fifth successive season. It would also be the third consecutive campaign with a losing record for head coach Mike MacIntyre.
Prediction for Sam Houston vs. FIU
Two teams with polar opposite records kick off the college football Week 9 action as the 5-2 Bearkats travel to Miami to take on the 2-5 Panthers in “Weekday CUSA” action. Both teams are coming off a Week 8 defeat, and as we discussed above, there are bowl eligibility permutations for each program.
Can Sam Houston bounce back with a beatdown? Can the Panthers pounce on the wounded Bearkats to secure a second CUSA win of the year? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
The biggest factor in this matchup will be the health of Sam Houston quarterback Hunter Watson. The former JUCO standout left the Western Kentucky game at the half, never returned, and the Bearkats failed to score a single point in the second half. He threw for 128 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions in the first half.
Head coach Keeler told the media late this week that Watson has visited a chiropractor and the team won’t know more about his status until closer to game day. However, he also noted that a “short week doesn’t help.” The dropoff from QB1 to backup Jase Bauer was noticeable on Wednesday night.
That said, Bauer has the athletic ability to move the ball with his legs. Sam Houston has shown it can be dominant on the ground, utilizing their quarterback alongside standout running backs Jeyvon Ducker and DJ McKinney to boast one of the top rushing offenses in CUSA. Guess who has one of the worst rushing defenses in the conference?
You guessed it, FIU. The Panthers have allowed the second most yards per carry (4.87) and rushing touchdowns (19) in CUSA, and a week after succumbing to a UTEP ground game that had struggled up until then, MacIntyre’s team likely won’t be able to keep pace with the Bearkats. Watson’s status may change the situation, but it should be a Sam Houston win on Tuesday.
Prediction: Sam Houston 31, FIU 21
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