Weekday CUSA continues on Wednesday, with the FIU Panthers heading to El Paso to take on the UTEP Miners in a must-win matchup for both teams. Who succeeds in the Sun Bowl?
Our FIU vs. UTEP prediction breaks down everything you need to know, including the latest betting odds and each team’s chances of success for the remainder of the 2024 college football season.
FIU vs. UTEP Betting Preview
All FIU vs. UTEP odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
FIU -4.5 - Spread
FIU -7 - Moneyline
FIU -258, UTEP +210 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Sun Bowl | El Paso, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
59 degrees, mostly cloudy, 10 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
Wednesday will be the seventh-ever clash between these two CUSA foes, with honors split evenly across the previous six encounters. UTEP has been on a heater against FIU, winning the last two in comfortable fashion. The Miners also hold a 2-1 advantage when the game is held in El Paso, including a 40-6 win in 2022. Can the program continue that trend in 2024?
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
In short, it is highly unlikely. There’s a reason that both the Draftkings and CFN FPM spread lines favor FIU on Wednesday night. Scotty Walden’s UTEP team is still finding their identity. In addition to being winless, they’re also 1-5 against the spread this year. FIU is 4-2 against the spread and has covered their last two — including an improved showing against the Liberty Flames.
FIU’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, FIU has a 62.5% chance of beating UTEP on Wednesday night, which should be expected given their opponent has yet to get a win — or look like getting a win.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Panthers this season:
- at UTEP: 62.5%
- vs. Sam Houston: 39.4%
- vs. New Mexico State: 70.3%
- at Jacksonville State: 35.4%
- at Kennesaw State: 73.8%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 53.4%
If these win probabilities hold true, FIU will end the season with a 6-6 record, earning bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019. That would be a remarkable achievement, especially after losing to FCS Monmouth in Week 4.
UTEP’s Winning Probability
Conversely, the CFN FPM gives UTEP just a 37.4% chance of winning on Wednesday night. The Miners have endured a torrid start to the season, and it doesn’t show any sign of improving this week.
Here are the remaining win probabilities for the Miners in 2024:
- vs. FIU: 37.4%
- at Louisiana Tech: 26.2%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 38.1%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 63.6%
- at Tennessee: 0.1%
- at New Mexico State: 47.2%
If these win probabilities hold true, UTEP will end the 2024 season with a 1-11 record. That would be the Miners’ worst performance since 2019 and significantly below the final record from 2023, which triggered the departure of former head coach Dana Dimel.
Prediction for FIU vs. UTEP
It’s a must-win matchup for both teams on Wednesday night, for many different reasons. After beating Louisiana Tech and holding their own against Liberty, 2-4 FIU has bowl aspirations, and a win would cement that possibility. Meanwhile, UTEP is still searching for its first win and a defeat would make them the first program to be eliminated from bowl contention in the 2024 season.
Can FIU build on their performance last week? Can the Miners really challenge for a win? Who’s got the edge, and where will the key battles unfold?
UTEP’s fortunes could hang on quarterback Cade McConnell. The Miners’ passer is described as a “game-time decision” for the CUSA clash, and if he can’t play, he will be replaced under center by Skyler Locklear, who has made five starts in 2024.
McConnell got the Miners off to a fast start against Western Kentucky with a 76-yard touchdown pass to Kenny Odom. While neither QB has excelled this fall, McConnell has thrown more touchdowns, fewer interceptions, and has averaged more yards per attempt than his less-experienced teammate.
While the quarterback situation poses questions, the emergence of running back Ezell Jolly against Western Kentucky could be the spark the Miners’ offense needs. After rushing for 119 yards, he now faces one of the worst rush defenses in CUSA. FIU has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns in the conference and was gashed by Liberty (281 yards, four scores) a week ago.
That said, the UTEP defense has given up 5.15 yards per carry to the ground game, allowed 34.5 points per game, and only Middle Tennessee has given up more plays of 10+ yards this season. Look for the FIU offensive trio of Keyone Jenkins, Kejon Owens, and Eric Rivers to be too potent for the Miners’ defense in a game that shouldn’t be as close as the spread lines suggest.
Prediction: FIU 31, UTEP 17
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.