The Missouri Tigers haven’t always been at their peak, yet they’ve managed to secure a 5-1 record, keeping their College Football Playoff hopes alive as the season hits the midway point. Up next for Missouri is a clash with an Auburn Tigers squad that’s still searching for consistency.
Who will emerge victorious in this SEC showdown between the Tigers? Dive into our breakdown of the total and spread for this Auburn vs. Missouri matchup.
Auburn vs. Missouri Betting Preview
All Auburn vs. Missouri odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Missouri -12 - Spread
Missouri -3.5 - Moneyline
Missouri -175, Auburn +145 - Over/Under
49.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 19, noon ET - Location
Faurot Field, Columbia, Mo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
64 degrees, sunny, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
The CFN Football Playoff Meter and Vegas spread differ greatly but both favor Missouri. This line opened at Missouri -7 and has plummeted since Sunday. The total has stayed relatively stable.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The total is set at 50 points. With a spread of 4 points, the implied final score is close to 27-23 in favor of Missouri.
Auburn’s Winning Probability
Per the FPM, there is not much hope of a bowl game for Auburn. The Tigers have an 18.4% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about 12 points.
While this is the second-hardest remaining game, the Tigers are underdogs in five of their last six.
- at Missouri: 18.4%
- at Kentucky: 29.7%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 38.9%
- vs. UL-Monroe: 73.4%
- vs. Texas A&M: 20.4%
- at Alabama: 5.9%
Missouri’s Winning Probability
Before the season, it was thought that Missouri had one of the easiest schedules in the SEC and FPM still agrees. The Tigers have an 81.6% chance to win the game, per FPM, their second-easiest remaining game on the schedule.
They’re favored in all but one of their remaining games.
- vs. Auburn: 81.6%
- at Alabama: 19.8%
- vs. Oklahoma: 68.8%
- at South Carolina: 64.6%
- at Mississippi State: 88.6%
- vs. Arkansas: 71.6%
Prediction for Auburn vs. Missouri
Just to be clear, my take on this game has more to do with my doubts about Auburn than any strong belief in Missouri.
I see Missouri as a bit of a paper tiger at the moment. They’ve had some luck to reach 5-1, eking out close wins over teams like Boston College and Vanderbilt. They’ve dominated weaker opponents but have struggled against more serious Power Four competition.
Still, they’re not Auburn.
Auburn’s situation is much more dire. Things on the Plains feel like they could come undone at any moment. Hugh Freeze emphasized in the offseason that he didn’t need a quarterback, only to later criticize all of his quarterbacks during the season, implying that better quarterback play would change their fortunes.
Auburn has the talent to reach a bowl game, but a loss on Saturday could send them into a tailspin. Freeze’s return to the SEC hasn’t gone smoothly, with an 8-11 record so far. This game could be pivotal for Auburn’s hopes of turning things around.
Missouri’s main issue against Texas A&M was their struggle to contain big plays in the passing game. While they had difficulties in the trenches, I credit that more to Texas A&M’s strong line play.
Missouri still has the explosive Luther Burden III, even if their running game hasn’t quite found its rhythm and feels like it’s underperforming. Meanwhile, Auburn lacks the passing game to truly challenge Missouri’s secondary, and Missouri has enough offensive playmakers to test Auburn’s solid defense.
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If Auburn falls behind early, it will be tough for them to mount a comeback, and that’s where things could go downhill quickly.
Unless some fluky turnovers shift the momentum, I don’t see Auburn putting up enough points to push the total over, and I trust their defense just enough to keep this from turning into a blowout. But it’s not looking good for Auburn. If you’re willing to take a risk and bet against the Tigers from the Plains, an alternate spread could be worth a look.
I’m with FPM on this one—Missouri takes it.
Prediction: Missouri 35, Auburn 10
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