Though the Big Ten expanded in 2024, there are still some low-scoring, smash-mouth games in the rotation. The Michigan Wolverines and Illinois Fighting Illini play one such game Saturday.
Who wins when two strong defenses face off in an old-school Big Ten clash? Find out which way we lean in this Michigan vs. Illinois prediction.
Michigan vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Michigan vs. Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 14, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Michigan -2 - Spread
Michigan -3.5 - Moneyline
Duke -155, Illinois +130 - Over/Under
43.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 19, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Illinois Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Ill. - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, sunny, 7 mph winds - How To Watch
CBS
The CFN Football Playoff Meter and Vegas spread differ slightly, but both favor the Wolverines. This line opened as a near pick ’em before bets poured in on Michigan.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The total is set at 43.5 points, indicative of the defensive talent — and the struggling offenses — in this one. With a spread of 3.5 points, the implied final score is close to 24-20 in favor of the Wolverines.
Michigan’s Winning Probability
Per the FPM, the Wolverines are in danger of a disappointing season. Michigan has a 53.4% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about two points.
The Wolverines are favored in three of their remaining games. Here are Michigan’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Illinois: 53.4%
- vs. Michigan State: 83.5%
- vs. Oregon: 25.4%
- at Indiana: 37.4%
- vs. Northwestern: 91.5%
- at Ohio State: 17.0%
Illinois’ Winning Probability
FPM thinks Illinois could win several of its remaining games. The Fighting Illini have a 46.6% chance to win the game, per FPM, their second-hardest remaining game on the schedule. They have several true winnable games left on the schedule, making this a crucial game.
Here are the Fighting Illini’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Michigan: 46.6%
- at Oregon: 8.3%
- vs. Minnesota: 64.6%
- vs. Michigan State: 74.9%
- at Rutgers: 50.6%
- at Northwestern: 75.5%
Prediction for Michigan vs. Illinois
By now it should be painfully obvious that this isn’t last year’s Michigan team. Though 4-2, the Wolverines have really struggled against quality defenses as the offense is completely one-dimensional. Sherrone Moore is onto QB3, and the results aren’t any better than with the first two.
Meanwhile, Illinois is quietly doing what he does best. The Illini have found the two to three things that work for them this season and are going back to the well over and over. As long as it works, they’ll keep doing it.
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This year, that thing is throwing it up for receivers Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin to catch. The duo has nearly 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. The defense has been pretty stingy as well, outside of a weird 49-point allowance to Purdue.
There’s also been an element of luck, as Illinois is 2-0 in overtime and 3-0 in one-score games. Outside of a loss to Penn State, the offense has been solid, and nothing like Bret Bielema’s teams of the past.
Michigan is a really solid team with no semblance of quarterback competency on the roster. I truly think they’d be better off going out of the Wildcat or incorporating elements of the triple option.
At some point, the season could really go downhill. The Wolverines haven’t had a 100-yard passer since Sept. 14 and Illinois has the defensive front to do enough against the run to make Michigan throw.
In 2024, Michigan will lose every game in which it has to throw.
Expect Luke Altmyer to have a decent enough day to put pressure on whichever quarterback the Wolverines throw out. Take Illinois and the over here, especially with the Illini getting more than a field goal.
Prediction: Illinois 27, Michigan 24
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