The Troy Trojans and South Alabama Jaguars are both adjusting to new head coaches in 2024, but one team is finding its footing faster than the other. The Trojans are facing challenges after losing Jon Sumrall, with Gerad Parker and his staff experiencing significant growing pains in their first season.
Meanwhile, Major Applewhite’s Jaguars are picking up momentum. The spread for this Tuesday night Sun Belt matchup is widening, but who has the edge? Get our take on which team covers in this Troy vs. South Alabama prediction.
Troy vs. South Alabama Betting Preview
All Troy vs. South Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
South Alabama -4 - Spread
South Alabama -10.5 - Moneyline
South Alabama -425, Troy +330 - Over/Under
54 points - Game Time
Oct. 15, 7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Ala. - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, clear, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
The CFN Football Playoff Meter and Vegas spread differ greatly, though each has the Jaguars as favorites. This one has started to correct itself, it appears, moving from South Alabama opening as 11.5-point favorites before dropping down to -10.5 ahead of kickoff.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The total is set at 54 points, indicative of the offensive firepower in this one. With a spread of 10/11 points, the implied final score is close to 32-21 in favor of the Jaguars.
Troy’s Winning Probability
Per the PFM, the Trojans have a much better chance of winning than Vegas suggests. Troy has a 38.1% chance to win the game, per the metric, translating to an implied spread of about four points.
The Trojans will want to try to get as many wins as possible soon, as there are several toss-up games on the schedule. Here are Troy’s winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at South Alabama: 38.1%
- at Arkansas State: 41.1%
- vs. Coastal Carolina: 48.2%
- vs. Georgia Southern: 46.6%
- at Louisiana: 19.8%
- vs. Southern Miss: 55.6%
South Alabama’s Winning Probability
Though the Jaguars are 2-4, FPM thinks they have several winnable games left on the schedule. South Alabama has a 61.9% chance to win the game, per FPM. Outside of two games as heavy underdogs down the stretch, it has South Alabama within three points of every other opponent on the schedule.
Here are the Jaguars’ winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Troy: 61.9%
- vs. UL-Monroe: 45.7%
- vs. Georgia Southern: 50.4%
- at Louisiana: 24.9%
- at Southern Miss: 52.8%
- vs. Texas State: 21.9%
Prediction for Troy vs. South Alabama
While the overall “vibes” around these two teams may differ, their records tell a similar story. South Alabama sits at 1-4 against FBS opponents, while Troy is winless at 0-5.
The key difference might be that Troy hasn’t faced a defense as weak as Appalachian State’s. South Alabama racked up its lone FBS win by running all over the Mountaineers. But since then, they’ve been blown out by LSU and dropped an ugly game to Arkansas State.
South Alabama’s offense was expected to be one of the better units in the Sun Belt, but outside of a brief two-game hot streak where they put up 133 points, they’ve fallen short. In their four losses, the Jaguars have averaged just 21 points per game and have struggled to establish the run.
Troy, meanwhile, has also been hampered offensively but has faced tougher defenses. South Alabama’s defense ranks as one of the worst, if not the worst, that the Trojans have faced this season—depending on which stats you prefer.
I have a hunch that Troy’s struggles are more about their schedule than their talent. The Trojans are far from out of the fight, and getting 12 points against another struggling team feels excessive.
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South Alabama wants to push the tempo, create mismatches in the running and passing game, and wear down defenses with their pace.
Troy’s offensive strategy has shifted since Week 1, partly due to the health of quarterback Goose Crowder, who has shown flashes of potential but has struggled to stay on the field. Backup Tucker Kilcrease has stepped up, adding a rushing threat from the QB spot.
I believe Troy is on the verge of turning a corner. Whether that leads to an outright upset on Tuesday remains to be seen, but I feel confident the Trojans will play better. They’ll keep it close, play their style of game, and cover the spread while keeping the score low.
Prediction: South Alabama 23, Troy 21
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