Rutgers has moved up a tier in the new Big Ten from pesky upstart to bowl contender. Meanwhile, Wisconsin isn’t doing anything special in either direction. The 3-2 Badgers have yet to have an unexpected — or close — result, but could that change Saturday?
Find out if we think there’s a betting advantage in our Wisconsin vs. Rutgers prediction.
Wisconsin vs. Rutgers Betting Preview
All California vs. Rutgers odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Rutgers -3 - Spread
Rutgers -3 - Moneyline
Rutgers -142, Wisconsin +120 - Over/Under
40 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, Noon ET - Location
SHI Stadium, Piscataway, N.J. - Predicted Weather at Kick
68 degrees, sunny, 10 mph winds - How To Watch
Big Ten Network
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Las Vegas are completely aligned on this one, both favoring the Scarlet Knights by three points. With a spread of three points and a total of 40, Vegas expects an old-school Big Ten rock fight, implying a final score close to 21-18, Rutgers.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
There hasn’t been a lot of line movement here. The spread ranges from Rutgers -2.5 to 3.5 and the total is between 39.5 and 40.5 everywhere I’ve looked.
Wisconsin’s Winning Probability
Wisconsin has a 41.1% chance to win on Saturday. The Badgers don’t have many games left as a favorite, so they’ll need to steal one or two to make a bowl.
- at Rutgers: 41.1%
- at Northwestern:74.6%
- vs. Penn State: 17.0%
- at Iowa: 37.4%
- vs. Oregon: 12.6%
- at Nebraska: 44.4%
- vs. Minnesota: 55.6%
Rutgers’ Winning Probability
FPM has the Scarlet Knights as three-point favorites, giving them a win probability of 58.9%. They have several toss-up games remaining, and if they can flip a few in their direction, we could be talking about a 9-3 Rutgers team.
- vs. Wisconsin: 58.9%
- vs. UCLA: 76.6%
- at USC: 36.4%
- vs. Minnesota: 53.4%
- at Maryland: 55.6%
- vs. Illinois: 50.0%
- at Michigan State: 64.1%
Prediction for Wisconsin vs. Rutgers
We know what Wisconsin is when it’s more talented than the opposition, and we know what Wisconsin is when it’s less talented than its opponent.
We don’t know what the Badgers are against similarly skilled teams.
The Badgers are 0-2 as a double-digit underdog and 3-0 as a double-digit favorite, but Saturday’s win against a hapless Purdue team was the first time the Badgers beat the spread.
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We know what Rutgers is. It’s nothing special. The Scarlet Knights run three to five concepts in the first half, figure out what works, and run it over and over in the second half until defenses adjust.
It’s not a particularly sophisticated brand of football, but while I have concerns about its long-term effectiveness, it’s working with this particular roster and this particular schedule.
The Scarlet Knights ran into a buzzsaw in Nebraska’s defense last week to break their perfect start, but Wisconsin’s defense isn’t quite to that level and the offense is lacking the type of dynamic arm that the Cornhuskers possess.
Rutgers isn’t built to blow anyone out. The Scarlet Knights are built to wear teams down and if the internal problems in Madison, Wis., are real, we’ll know this weekend. It’s going to be ugly, but I really do like the Scarlet Knights this week. Kyle Monangai, averaging 23 rushes a game, might get 30 touches this week as part of the Scarlet Knights’ game script.
This is the way Big Ten football was meant to be played.
Prediction: Rutgers 23, Wisconsin 14
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