Our Memphis vs. South Florida prediction dives into the matchup, offers betting insights, and shows where your money should go.
The last time these two teams met, 109 points were scored, and over 1,100 yards were generated. Are we in for yet another offensive explosion on Friday night?
Memphis vs. South Florida Betting Preview
All Memphis vs. South Florida odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Memphis -3.5 - Spread
Memphis -7 - Moneyline
Memphis -245, USF +200 - Over/Under
59.5 points - Game Time
7:00 ET, Friday, Oct. 11 - Location
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
73 degrees, 10 mph winds, partly cloudy - How To Watch
ESPN
After opening with Memphis as a five-point favorite and a 62.5-point total, the line has since moved in favor of Memphis, while the betting market anticipates a lower-scoring affair.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Both teams are ahead against the spread, with the Tigers 6-2 in their last eight and USF 5-2 in their last seven.
Even with the total dropping by a few points, the under could still be the play, as it has hit in four of Memphis’ last five games and four of USF’s last six.
Memphis’ Winning Probability
Outside of the season finale against Tulane, Memphis is favored to come out on top in every game on the schedule, beginning with a 60.6% win probability against USF.
Here are the Tigers’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. North Texas: 79.3%
- vs. Charlotte: 84.2%
- at UTSA: 77.4%
- vs. Rice: 84.2%
- vs. UAB: 88.3%
- at Tulane: 49.2%
South Florida’s Winning Probability
USF’s odds of winning this week sit at 39.4%, but fret not, Bulls fans, as the outlook is a lot more positive down the stretch.
Here are the Bulls’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. UAB: 75.5%
- at FAU: 80.2%
- vs. Navy: 48.2%
- at Charlotte: 73.8%
- vs. Tulsa: 75.5%
- at Rice: 73.8%
Prediction for Memphis vs. South Florida
This game is the case of a movable object (USF’s defense) versus an unstoppable force (Memphis’ offense).
The Bulls allow 434 yards and 32.8 points per game, nearly the Tigers’ offensive averages this season (429.6 YPG and 33.2 PPG). But it goes further than totals.
Penalties per game:
- Memphis: 4.6, t-16th
- USF: 8.2, t-117th
Third-down conversation rate:
- Memphis: 48.5, 24th
- USF: 40.8%, 67th
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Yeah, expect Memphis to add to its 6-1 record in its last seven games against USF while also covering the spread. And for those looking at the total, this isn’t the Alex Golesh offense of yesteryear — hammer the under.
Prediction: Memphis 38, USF 10
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