Deion Sanders jokes aside, Colorado might be good. Or some scheduling luck and a Hail Mary could have the Buffaloes sitting on an inflated record, bound to return to the mean at the next opportunity. Either way, the Big 12 is wide open and the Buffaloes have a chance to go into first place in the conference Saturday.
The Kansas State Wildcats stand in the way. Many predicted an eventual Avery Johnson clunker would cost the Wildcats a winnable game. That happened at BYU, but the sophomore bounced back last week and the Wildcats sit at 4-1. Can they keep pace in the wide-open Big 12? Find out which way we lean in this Kansas State vs. Colorado prediction.
Kansas State vs. Colorado Betting Preview
All Kansas State vs. Colorado odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. The CFN spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kansas State -2.5 - Spread
Kansas State -5 - Moneyline
Kansas State -198, Colorado +164 - Over/Under
56.5 points - Game Time
Oct. 12, 10:15 p.m. ET - Location
Folsom Field, Boulder, Colo. - Predicted Weather at Kick
66 degrees, cloudy, 6 mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN
CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Las Vegas vary a bit on this one, with the latter favoring Kansas State by five points while FPM has the Wildcats favored by less than a field goal. With a spread of five points and a total of 56.5, Vegas implies the score will be close to 31-26, Kansas State.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
The spread just opened, but it’s moving in favor of Colorado. It opened in favor of Kansas State at -5.5 and has already moved to -4.5 on some books. It’s hard to tell if that’s the typical “Deion effect” movement or if the public sees value in this line.
Kansas State’s Winning Probability
Kansas State has a 53.8% chance to win on Saturday. As is the case with many Big 12 schools, the Wildcats have plenty of toss-up games that could go either way left on their schedule.
- at Colorado: 53.8%
- at West Virginia: 47.2%
- vs. Kansas: 78.1%
- at Houston: 82.1%
- vs. Arizona State: 66.9%
- vs. Cincinnati: 78.1%
- at Iowa State: 46.2%
Colorado’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is a bit higher on Colorado in this one than Vegas is.
FPM has the Buffaloes as 2.5-point underdogs, giving them a win probability of 46.2%. As is the case with many Big 12 schools, the Wildcats have plenty of toss-up games that could go either way left on their schedule.
- vs. Kansas State: 46.2%
- at Arizona: 28.4%
- vs. Cincinnati: 66.4%
- at Texas Tech: 32.3%
- vs. Utah: 39.4%
- at Kansas: 63.1%
- vs. Oklahoma State: 51.8%
Prediction for Kansas State vs. Colorado
While I love watching the Buffaloes, I don’t quite believe in them yet. The schedule has done them plenty of favors, as they’ve benefitted from playing several pretenders early on. In recent weeks, we’ve seen that UCF isn’t as good as initially thought, while Dave Aranda is as close to a lame-duck coach as you’ll find — and the Buffaloes needed a Hail Mary and a Travis Hunter forced fumble at the goal line just to pull that one off.
Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are must-see television, and I do believe the defense is at least somewhat improved from last season. That being said, the offensive line questions still linger and the Buffaloes couldn’t move the ball against the only top-40 SP+ defense they’ve faced.
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Sanders and Hunter are good for probably 12-14 points on the spread by themselves, but Kansas State as a whole is a much, much better team.
Johnson should be able to find space as a runner and thrower, but more importantly, DJ Giddens could have a field day against the Colorado front. If he gets going, Colorado won’t be able to match the Wildcats score for score.
I’m not a believer in the Buffaloes, yet. If they pull this one off, it will probably be enough to convince me, but for now, I’m going to fade them against good teams. Take the Wildcats and lean to the under, as I don’t see Colorado making it far over 20.
Prediction: Kansas State 31, Colorado 23
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