After crushing Clemson 34-3 and Tennessee Tech 48-3 to kick off the year, Georgia narrowly defeated Kentucky 14-13 and lost to Alabama 41-34, with the score 30-7 at halftime. Clearly, the Bulldogs have some inconsistencies to correct, but how did the loss in Tuscaloosa, Ala., impact their SEC Championship Game odds?
Projecting Georgia’s Remaining Schedule
Using College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter (FPM), we can project Georgia’s remaining schedule. The Bulldogs will be favored in all but one of their remaining games, and if they can bounce back from a one-point win over Kentucky and a seven-point loss to Alabama, they’ll have a chance to compete in their fourth straight SEC championship.
Georgia (-23.5) vs. Auburn (Projection: W)
Payton Thorne. Hank Brown. It doesn’t matter who is under center for the Tigers right now — turnovers are guaranteed. The Bulldogs should feast on Thorne to start the game, likely forcing Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze to bench him and throw in Brown or another backup.
Even if Carson Beck and the offense start slow once again, there’s little chance Georgia will fall to Auburn. How little? 4.8%.
Georgia (-28.5) vs. Mississippi State (Projection: W)
Auburn at least has the offensive skill position players and defense to put up somewhat of a fight. The same can’t be said for Mississippi State, with Georgia owning a 98.8% win probability.
Georgia (+3.5) @ Texas (Projection: L)
Depending on how high you view Alabama, this spread may be too low. Whether it’s Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning under center, the Longhorns have rolled to a 5-0 start for the second straight season. The offense is humming, and the defense is doing more than just holding its own.
As a result, the Bulldogs’ win rate is just 39.4%, but that could easily rise with convincing victories over Auburn and Mississippi State.
Georgia (-23) vs. Florida (Projection: W)
Yet another 20+ point spread for Kirby Smart and Co. With how Florida started the season, it wouldn’t be surprising if HC Bill Napier didn’t make it to December.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
The 102nd edition of the formerly named “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” won’t differ from recent history, as Georgia has outscored Florida by 23+ points in each of the last three outings.
Georgia (-3.5) @ Ole Miss (Projection: W)
After a quick reprieve after the Texas game, the Bulldogs will once again travel to a ranked SEC contender in Ole Miss.
Now, they do have a win probability of 60.6%, but if the Rebels hit their stride after stumbling against Kentucky in Week 4 (20-17), they’ll pose a real threat. QB Jaxson Dart has never looked as comfortable in Lane Kiffin’s offense as he does right now, and WR Tre Harris is leading the nation in receiving yards (804).
And it’s not as if the defense has stood idly by, as the unit is currently fifth in the nation in points per game allowed (8.4).
Georgia (-6) vs. Tennessee (Projection: W)
This isn’t your grandpa’s, dad’s, or brother’s Vols …
Tennessee’s team ranks this season:
- Offensive YPG: third (565.8)
- Offensive PPG: first (54.0)
- Defensive YPG: first (176.0)
- Defensive PPG: t-second (7.0)
It’s not as if they haven’t played anyone of note, either, as Josh Heupel’s squad throttled NC State 51-10 in Week 2 and Oklahoma 25-15 in Week 4. Regardless, Smart has had Tennessee’s number, winning seven straight by an average score of 38.8-12.4.
Georgia (-35.5) vs. UMass (Projection: W)
Not much to say here — it’s four-time national champion Georgia against UMass, who hasn’t won more than four games in a single season since reinstating the football program in 2012.
Georgia (-18) vs. Georgia Tech (Projection: W)
Georgia Tech hasn’t upset Georgia since 2016 — don’t expect the drought to end in 2024. After stunning then-No. 10 ranked Florida State in Week 0, the Yellow Jackets have been less than impressive, going 2-2 with wins over Georgia State and FCS-level VMI and losses against ACC opponents Syracuse and Louisville.
Thus, the Bulldogs should have no issue dispatching their in-state rival, especially if they’re firing on all cylinders come the end of the regular season.
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