Arguably the marquee matchup on the Friday night slate, the Syracuse Orange travel across the country to take on a UNLV Rebels team making headlines on and off the field. With multiple potential permutations attached to this matchup, who wins when UNLV and Syracuse collide in the casino heartland of America?
Our Syracuse vs. UNLV prediction contains the answers, the latest betting odds, and the Orange and Rebels’ winning probabilities for the rest of the 2024 college football campaign.
Syracuse vs. UNLV Betting Preview
All Syracuse vs. UNLV odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -5.5 - Spread
UNLV -6 - Moneyline
UNLV -230, Syracuse +190 - Over/Under
59.5 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Allegiant Stadium | Las Vegas, NV - Predicted Weather at Kick
75.2 degrees, mainly clear and warm, 5.6mph winds - How to Watch
FS1
Allegiant Stadium hosts the first-ever matchup between Syracuse and UNLV and it comes at a pivotal time for both programs. After the departure of long-time head coach Dino Babers, Fran Brown has had an instant impact on the program. Meanwhile, the Rebels are enjoying unprecedented success, with the Mountain West title in play and a legitimate College Football Playoff shot.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Alongside a 4-0 winning record, UNLV is one of just 10 teams remaining who are perfect against the spread in 2024. Syracuse is currently on the opposite end of the spectrum, going 1-3 against the spread. It’s worth noting the Orange covered the only time they were an underdog this fall. With a combined 5-3 in favor of the under, it might be worth avoiding the 59.5-point line.
Syracuse’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM), Syracuse has a 34.9% chance of winning this must-watch clash on Friday night. While that makes the Orange slightly less of an underdog than the current odds offered by DraftKings Sportsbook, they are an underdog nonetheless.
Previous winning probabilities from the CFN FPM for Syracuse this season correctly projected their current 3-1 record, albeit with a reversal of their ACC clashes with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Stanford Cardinal. Here is how Syracuse’s remaining schedule looks in terms of winning probability:
- at UNLV: 34.9%
- at NC State: 51.8%
- at Pittsburgh: 35.9%
- vs. Virginia Tech: 53.8%
- at Boston College: 38.9%
- at California: 50%
- vs. UConn: 84.2%
- at Miami (FL): 24.7%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, Syracuse would end the season with either a 6-6 or 7-5 record, depending on how you split the road game at California. In a conference dominated by Miami (FL) and Clemson, the Orange have a 3.4% chance of winning the ACC.
UNLV’s Winning Probability
For the fifth consecutive game the CFN FPM gives the Rebels the upper hand in terms of winning percentage. The 65.1% percentage chance of victory is slightly tighter than the odds offered by DraftKings Sportsbook and makes it one of the more difficult games on the Rebels schedule.
However, they already proved capable of turning predictions and probabilities into tangible results when they took down the Kansas Jayhawks as a tight favorite. The CFN FPM successfully projected the Rebels’ first four wins, and here are UNLV’s remaining winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Syracuse: 65.1%
- at Utah State: 89%
- at Oregon State: 61.9%
- vs. Boise State: 53.8%
- at Hawaii: 82.1%
- vs. San Diego State: 91.3%
- at San Jose State: 73%
- vs. Nevada: 92.3%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, UNLV would be a perfect 12-0 and earn a place in the Mountain West Championship Game. The CFN FPM currently gives the Rebels a 36.6% chance of winning the conference. Furthermore, the program is currently ranked 25th in the AP Poll, with a 47.8% chance of making the College Football Playoff.
Prediction for Syracuse vs. UNLV
After washing the taste of their first defeat of the year away with a commanding win over FCS Holy Cross, Syracuse arrives in Las Vegas to face a UNLV team looking to add a third Power Four scalp to their ever-blossoming resume. Will the Rebels continue to roll on Friday night, or can the Orange spring a surprise? Who holds the advantages, and where are the key battle lines?
Starting with the road team and quarterback Kyle McCord, who has been rejuvenated since landing at the ACC outfit after a torrid season as the starter at Ohio State. The Syracuse quarterback currently leads the nation in passing yards per game, ably assisted by the emergence of Trebor Pena as more than just a dangerous punt return weapon.
Pena leads the team in receptions (26), receiving yards (316), and touchdowns (five) while tying for eighth-ranked in the nation in the latter with more recognized household names like Tre Harris and Ryan Williams. Showcasing the ability of this offense to spray the ball around in the passing game, five different players have double-digit receptions through four games.
Those include running back LeQuint Allen, whose dynamic speed and pass-catching ability make him a dangerous weapon. For all the attention on McCord, the Syracuse offense goes as Allen does, which could spell disaster for Syracuse against UNLV. In their only defeat of the year against Stanford, the Orange couldn’t get the ground game going at all, and guess what?
That’s right, UNLV has one of the best rushing defenses in the nation. Linebacker Jackson Woodard flies into the backfield like a heat-seeking missile looking to bring a premature end to any run play. He’s averaging 1.88 tackles for loss per game so far, ranking eighth in the nation. The run defense has allowed just 2.88 yards per carry, while the Rebels rank second for interceptions, led by Jalen Catalon’s four grabs and one score.
Much was made of the departure of Matthew Sluka prior to the Week 5 game against Fresno State, and all replacement QB Hajj-Malik Williams did was eviscerate the Bulldogs’ defense with his arms and his legs. Syracuse has a middle-of-the-road run defense that simply doesn’t have the answers for Williams, a trio of potent running backs, and a double-headed WR monster in Ricky White III and Jacob De Jesus. Rebels continue to roll.
Prediction: Syracuse 23, UNLV 35
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