Midweek Conference USA action gets underway in earnest, but college football Week 6 gives us an early look at two teams from the conference who are currently on opposite trajectories. Who wins when the Sam Houston Bearkats and UTEP Miners face off in the Sun Bowl?
Our Sam Houston vs. UTEP prediction contains the answers, the latest betting odds, and the Bearkats and Miners’ winning probabilities for the rest of the 2024 college football campaign.
Sam Houston vs. UTEP Betting Preview
All Sam Houston vs. UTEP odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Sam Houston -3.5 - Spread
Sam Houston -10.5 - Moneyline
Sam Houston -395, UTEP +310 - Over/Under
50 points - Game time
9 p.m. ET - Location
Sun Bowl | El Paso, TX - Predicted Weather at Kick
73 degrees, clear, 4.3 mph winds - How to Watch
CBS Sports Network
After Sam Houston avoided the Miners last fall, this matchup marks the first FBS encounter between the two teams. However, there is an element of history with three previous clashes. The last two piled past the 50-point line, and the Bearkats are 2-0 covering the points line when that mark has been in the 50s.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
However, the two teams have combined for a 7-2 record in favor of the under. Meanwhile, Sam Houston has comfortably covered the spread both times they’ve been favored this season (and twice when they’ve been an underdog), while UTEP is 1-3 against the spread, including a 1-2 spread record as an underdog. Bet the Bearkats straight up, against the spread, and the under.
Sam Houston’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM), Sam Houston has a 61.1% chance of winning this CUSA clash. While that makes the Bearkats a shorter favorite than the current odds offered by DraftKings Sportsbook, they remain in position to get the road win.
It’s worth noting that while the CFN FPM still had the Bearkats as an underdog in their win over Texas State, the three-point line was much closer than the +11.5 offered by some sportsbooks. Here is how Sam Houston’s remaining schedule looks in terms of winning probability:
- at UTEP: 61.1%
- vs. Western Kentucky: 44.4%
- at FIU: 58.9%
- vs. Louisiana Tech: 66.9%
- at Kennesaw State: 70.3%
- at Jacksonville State: 51.8%
- vs. Liberty: 25.8%
If those winning percentages were to hold true, Sam Houston would end the season with a 9-3 record that would give them a shot at a place in the CUSA Championship Game. They currently have a 7.2% chance of winning the title in their second season.
UTEP’s Winning Probability
Things are not so sunny for the residents of the Sun Bowl, with the Miners given just a 38.9% chance of winning in our Sam Houston vs. UTEP prediction. Unfortunately for Miners fans, the program has been true to form this fall, losing every game they were expected to while even being taken down by FCS outfit Southern Utah.
After six seasons of Dana Dimel, the Scotty Walden era is taking some time to come together. Can they at least grab a couple of wins before the end of the year? Here are UTEP’s remaining winning probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Sam Houston: 38.9%
- at Western Kentucky: 19.4%
- vs. FIU: 50.6%
- at Louisiana Tech: 47.5%
- vs. Middle Tennessee: 52.5%
- vs. Kennesaw State: 58.9%
- at Tennessee: 0.1%
- at New Mexico State: 48.8%
Currently, the only projected wins on the UTEP schedule are against FIU, Kennesaw State (two games where the CFN FPM gives them a small home-field advantage), and New Mexico State. Some victories may come, but our Sam Houston vs. UTEP prediction doesn’t envisage this midweek matchup being one of them.
Prediction for Sam Houston vs. UTEP
You’ve heard about the numbers behind our Sam Houston vs. UTEP prediction, but how will the game play out on the field on Thursday night? UTEP has held the historical advantage when the Bearkats were an FCS foe, but what gives KC Keeler’s team the advantage now the two teams are CUSA counterparts?
New Miners head coach Walden was expected to bring exciting offensive football to El Paso, but so far, the product has been more than disappointing. UTEP currently ranks 129th in the nation, averaging just 14.5 points per game. They’ve had inconsistent play from the quarterback position, with freshman Skyler Locklear turning the ball over more than scoring.
While Sam Houston quarterback Hunter Watson hasn’t been much better in the turnover stakes (he actually leads CUSA in interceptions), the 6’3″, 210-pound passer has been a dangerous dual threat for the Bearkats, rushing for 338 yards and four scores through five games. Watson spearheads a ground game that ranks second in CUSA (216.0 yards per game).
This is where these two teams are worlds apart on Thursday night. Sam Houston has three players (Watson, Jeyvon Ducker, and DJ McKinney) with over 200 rushing yards and has tallied 10 touchdowns on the ground. By contrast, the UTEP run defense has allowed the second most yards per carry (4.97) and total rushing yards per game (223.5) in the conference.
Not only does UTEP not have the offense to keep pace with the Bearkats, but the Sam Houston defense has proven to be a relatively sturdy unit — especially against the passing game. They’ve allowed the least yards per attempt in the conference (6.1) while snagging the second-most interceptions (5), led by Caleb Weaver, who has been a force in all phases of the game.
UCF was able to put up some staggering rushing numbers against the Sam Houston run defense earlier in the year, but let’s be honest, UTEP’s eighth-in-CUSA-ranked ground game isn’t going to pose the same level of threat. This should be an easy win for Keeler’s team on Thursday night.
Prediction: Sam Houston 31, UTEP 14
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.