The Big 12 has been the toughest conference to gauge this season, with no clear elite teams and hardly any bottom-dwellers. Four weeks in, there are still seven or eight teams that could realistically capture the conference title and secure a College Football Playoff spot.
Before you decide to bet on the game, find out where we lean in this West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys prediction.
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State Betting Preview
All West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Oklahoma State -3.5 - Spread
Oklahoma State -2.5 - Moneyline
Oklahoma State -142, West Virginia +120 - Over/Under
65 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 4 p.m. ET - Location
Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Ok. - Predicted Weather at Kick
89 degrees, sunny, six mph winds - How To Watch
ESPN2
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and Vegas are aligned on this one, as both have the Cowboys as slight favorites. With a spread in between 3 points and a total of 65, it’s implied that a final score close to 34-30 in favor of the Cowboys.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Both offenses have high-scoring potential but have been hot and cold this season. Meanwhile, the defenses can leave much to be desired.
The line opened with Oklahoma State nearly a touchdown favorite and has quickly fallen to its current position.
West Virginia’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter was originally a bit higher on the Mountaineers’ chances than Vegas. The betting public seemed to agree, driving the number down.
FPM has West Virginia as four-point underdogs, giving them a win probability of 39.4%. That represents the Mountaineers’ second-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule.
- at Oklahoma State: 39.4%
- vs. Iowa State: 39.4%
- vs Kansas State: 47.2%
- at Arizona: 27.0%
- at Cincinnati: 54.3%
- vs Baylow: 66.4%
- vs UCF: 57.4%
- at Texas Tech: 49.2%
Oklahoma State’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Oklahoma State has a 60.6% chance to win on Saturday. FPM likes the Cowboys in six of their remaining seven games but never by more than six points, meaning there are several games that could go either way.
Accordingly, Saturday’s clash with West Virginia is extremely important for OSU’s postseason hopes, especially after a two-game losing streak.
- vs. West Virginia: 60.6%
- at BYU: 35.4%
- at Baylor: 60.6%
- vs. Arizona State: 66.4%
- at TCU: 51.8%
- vs. Texas Tech: 63.6%
- at Colorado: 50.4%
Prediction for West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Watching Oklahoma State from a fan’s perspective can be downright frustrating. Despite having one of the country’s top running backs, the Cowboys rank dead last in rushing attempts at 131st. It’s not as if they’ve been effective when they do run, but the bigger issue is they’ve hardly tried.
Meanwhile, West Virginia’s defense has been a mess, surrendering 9.9 yards per pass attempt and 4.6 yards per carry. Their only saving grace has been a passable third-down defense, but even that unit looks like it’s on the verge of collapsing.
Offensively, West Virginia isn’t lighting it up, but they’re facing an Oklahoma State defense that’s been surviving on sheer luck. The Cowboys rank 128th in total defense, yet they’ve managed to rack up 10 takeaways despite a lackluster pass rush, and opponents have struggled in the red zone. Even stranger, opposing kickers have missed nearly half of their field goals against them.
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Both teams should be able to move the ball, and West Virginia has shown enough capability to convert some of the opportunities that others have squandered against the Cowboys.
Expect a shootout, and don’t be afraid to take a total in the 60s. While I think some of Oklahoma State’s turnover luck runs out here, the offense should find success both on the ground and through the air. I’m picking the Cowboys to win outright, but West Virginia to cover in a nail-biter.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, West Virginia 35
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