Texas Tech and Arizona have squared off 33 times throughout their history, but they’ve only met once since 1990. In 2019, the Wildcats defeated the Red Raiders 28-14 in Tucson, Ariz., and a similar result could be on the horizon.
Here’s our prediction for the Arizona vs. Texas Tech, new-look Big 12 clash, as well as a breakdown of the current odds and top DFS plays for one of the biggest contests of the week.
Texas Tech vs. Arizona Betting and DFS Preview
All Texas Tech vs. Arizona odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Arizona -9 - Spread
Arizona -6 - Moneyline
Arizona -128, Texas Tech +180 - Over/Under
62.5 points - Game Time
11:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Ariz. - Predicted Weather at Kick
91 degrees, 8 mph winds, clear - How To Watch
Fox
Arizona opened as three-point favorites, but that has quickly increased by three. What does that mean for against-the-spread (ATS) picks?
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
While the Wildcats are 0-2 ATS at home this year, they are 4-1 in their last five games against Big 12 opponents.
As for the total, there are two competing trends. First, the under has hit in five of Texas Tech’s last six road games. Second, the over has hit in five of Arizona’s last six games as the favorite.
Texas Tech’s Winning Probability
Texas Tech fans, brace yourselves: The team’s chances of upsetting Arizona on the road stand at just 25.1%. This marks the Red Raiders’ lowest projected win probability for any of their remaining games, tied only with the Nov. 2 matchup against Iowa State in Ames, Iowa.
Here are the Red Raiders’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- vs. Baylor: 63.6%
- at TCU: 47.5%
- at Iowa State: 25.1%
- vs. Colorado: 52.5%
- at Oklahoma State: 36.4%
- vs. West Virginia: 50.8%
Arizona’s Winning Probability
The CFN FPM is even more bullish on Arizona than the sportsbooks, giving the Wildcats a 74.9% probability in Week 6. In fact, the program owns a higher than 63% rate in all but one of their remaining games this year.
Here are the Wildcats’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at BYU: 48.2%
- vs. Colorado: 74.2%
- vs. West Virginia: 73%
- at UCF: 63.1%
- vs. Houston: 89.1%
- at TCU: 64.6%
- vs. Arizona State: 77.4%
Prediction Texas Tech vs. Arizona
On paper, the Red Raiders are a tough matchup for the Wildcats. Texas Tech is 15th in offensive rush and 17th in defensive dropback EPA per play. Meanwhile, Arizona is 15th in offensive dropback and 49th in defensive rush EPA per play.
Put simply, the Red Raiders are strong where the Wildcats are weak. But Joey McGuire’s teams have issues on the road, going 3-9 in his tenure in Lubbock, Texas. The opposite is the case for Brent Brennan, who went 10-2 in his last 12 home games at San José State. And even though Jedd Fisch is now in Washington, Arizona has gone 7-1 at home since last season.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
In the end, I trust the Wildcats to lock in at home and avoid any hangover from upsetting Utah last week. The Red Raiders’ heart rates were through the roof in a 44-41 thriller over Cincinnati and may crash out in Week 6. Take Arizona ATS and the under in this one.
Prediction: Arizona 35, Texas Tech 27
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