Our SMU vs. Louisville prediction breaks down the matchup, provides betting insights, and lays out which side deserved your hard-earned cash.
The Cardinals suffered their first loss of the season, falling 31-24 at Notre Dame, and aim to bounce back at home as they dive into conference play. Meanwhile, the Mustangs are riding a wave of confidence after dismantling Florida State, 42-16, in their ACC opener.
SMU vs. Louisville Betting and DFS Preview
All SMU vs. Louisville odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Louisville -5.5 - Spread
Louisville -7 - Moneyline
Louisville -258, SMU +210 - Over/Under
57 points - Game Time
Noon ET, Saturday, Oct. 5 - Location
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Ky. - Predicted Weather at Kick
70 degrees, 5 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
ESPN
The total has dropped from 61.5 to 57, while Louisville’s spread has adjusted from -8 to -7 as sportsbooks refine their lines.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
While SMU is an impressive 6-0 straight up in their last six road games, five of those took place last season, with the program’s last road game coming against Nevada in Week 0.
On the flip side, Louisville is 3-0 at home ATS and straight up, as well as 5-1 straight up in their last six games against ACC opponents.
SMU’s Winning Probability
According to the CFN FPM, although SMU is riding back-to-back high-scoring victories over Power Four opponents (66-24 vs. TCU and 42-16 vs. Florida State), it only has a 35.4% win probability against Louisville. However, it is a bit of a one-off, as the program is favored in each of its final six contests this year.
Here are the Mustangs’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Stanford: 62.6%
- at Duke: 52.5%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 53.4%
- vs. Boston College: 53.8%
- at Virginia: 52.8%
- vs. California: 66.4%
Louisville’s Winning Probability
Although Louisville owns a commanding 64.6% probability against SMU, the rest of their schedule is brutal. Matchups against Miami, Clemson, and Kentucky are major stumbling points that could cause the Cardinals’ ACC title hopes to waver down the stretch.
Here are the Cardinals’ win probabilities for the rest of the season:
- at Virginia: 64.1%
- vs. Miami: 38.1%
- at Boston College: 52.5%
- at Clemson: 26.6%
- at Stanford: 73%
- vs. Pittsburgh: 64.6%
- at Kentucky: 48.2%
Prediction SMU vs. Louisville
The last time SMU and Louisville faced off was in the 1980s — there isn’t a single player on either sideline who was even born then. This is an all-new ACC rivalry, and Game 1 should provide some fireworks … just not many.
While the Mustangs have put up some ridiculous points with Kevin Jennings under center, it’s somewhat misleading. Both the Horned Frogs and the Seminoles outgained them, but a +7 turnover differential enabled SMU to secure blowout victories.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season With CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Louisville just felt what the other side of such a game feels like. The offense outgained Notre Dame by 154 yards last week, but the unit committed its first three turnovers of the season, resulting in a hard-to-swallow 31-24 loss.
Expect Tyler Shough and an even healthier Caullin Lacy to feast through the air while Ashton Gillotte and Co. wreak havoc up front defensively, limiting Brashard Smith (7.3 yards-per-carry average in 2024) and forcing a still-learning Jennings to beat them.
Prediction: Louisville 27, SMU 17
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.