So much about college football is built around scheduling luck, or a lack thereof. For the Auburn Tigers, Saturday’s game against the Georgia Bulldogs couldn’t have come at a worse time.
The Tigers have been plagued by the same issues that held Hugh Freeze’s team back last year. Without a consistent passing attack, Auburn’s offense has been completely ineffective. Now, the Tigers get a Georgia team hungry for a win after dropping a thriller to Alabama.
There isn’t much hope of an upset, but can the Tigers keep it close against an angry Bulldog team? Take a look at our Auburn vs. Georgia prediction before you make a bet.
Auburn vs. Georgia Betting Preview
All Auburn vs. Georgia odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024.
- CFN FPM Spread
Georgia -23 - Spread
Georgia -23.5 - Moneyline
Georgia -2800, Auburn +1300 - Over/Under
51 points - Game Time
Oct. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga. - Predicted Weather at Kick
81 degrees, sunny, six mph winds - How To Watch
ABC
College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter and the Vegas spread are aligned on this one as both have the Bulldogs as heavy favorites. With a spread of 23 points and a total of 51, Vegas is low on Auburn’s offense against the Bulldogs, implying a final score in the range of 37-14.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
That would equal the Tigers’ offensive output in two of its three games against Power Conference competition. It would not surprise me to see this spread creep up a point or two — but watch to see if it eclipses the important 24-point mark.
Auburn’s Winning Probability
The Football Playoff Meter is aligned with the Vegas line, making the Tigers 23.5-point underdogs. That translates to a minuscule 4.8% win probability. That represents the Tigers’ second-lowest win probability of any game remaining on the schedule, behind a 4.4% win probability in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- at Georgia: 4.8%
- at Missouri: 8.3%
- at Kentucky 25.1%
- vs. Vanderbilt: 65.7%
- vs. UL-Monroe: 82.1%
- vs. Texas A&M: 38.1%
- at Alabama: 4.4%
Georgia’s Winning Probability
Conversely, Georgia has a 95.2% chance to win on Saturday. FPM would seem to think that this is a break in the schedule for the Bulldogs between brutal games at Alabama last week and at Texas later this season. The Bulldogs’ win probabilities for the rest of the season are listed below.
- vs. Auburn: 95.2%
- vs. Mississippi State: 98.8%
- at Texas: 39.4%
- vs. Florida: 94.9%
- at Ole Miss: 60.6%
- vs. Tennessee: 65.7%
- vs. UMass: 99.9%
- vs. Georgia Tech: 91.5%
Prediction for Auburn vs. Georgia
I’ve made my feelings known about the situation at Auburn. It’s awkward. The same boosters who pushed Bryan Harsin out and essentially forced the university to hire Hugh Freeze are now upset that Freeze didn’t bring in a transfer quarterback.
Freeze too seems to be blaming his signal-callers, but the fact remains for whoever is at fault: this offense is awful. Even when Payton Thorne flashed early against Oklahoma, the success was fleeting, and a horrible fourth quarter doomed the Tigers.
They’ll try not to let it spiral and will have an opportunity to stop the bleeding against … Georgia. In my opinion, this game is Auburn against itself and not Auburn against Georgia.
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The Bulldogs are going to win in a bounce-back spot before facing a brutal stretch in late October, the question is if Auburn collapses or just gets beaten by a better team. Given what we’ve heard from sources around the program, the former is certainly a possibility; if Freeze has to make another quarterback change, things will not be okay on the plains.
Auburn’s defense is solid, and Carson Beck might have some of the same issues he had against Alabama, but I just don’t see the Tigers moving the ball offensively. If it goes south, it could get ugly. I wouldn’t touch the total, but if you want some action on the points, consider an under on Auburn’s team total. Give me the Bulldogs in a lopsided one that might still stay under the total.
Prediction: Georgia 38, Auburn 7