The No. 8 ranked Oregon Ducks migrate south to take on the UCLA Bruins in their first meeting as members of the Big Ten in a late-night kickoff from the Rose Bowl.
The Ducks will look to continue building momentum coming off a bye week as UCLA returns home following a tough, physical loss to the LSU Tigers. Here are the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our final prediction for Oregon vs. UCLA.
Oregon vs. UCLA Betting and DFS Preview
All Oregon vs. UCLA odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024.
- Spread
Oregon -24 - Moneyline
Oregon -1450, UCLA +850 - Over/Under
55 - Game time
11 p.m. ET - Location
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA - Predicted Weather at Kick
75 degrees, Wind 5 mph, low clouds - How to Watch
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If Charles Dickens had been a college football fan, he would have coined this one “A Tale of Two Programs,” as it is the best of times for the Ducks and the worst of times for the Bruins.
Oregon finally looked like the preseason darling many thought could contend for a Big Ten title, and UCLA has shown they are a program amid a rebuild following the move to the Big Ten and departure of coach Chip Kelly.
Historically, these teams have hit the over in four of the last five matchups. Thus, the over of 55 looks very attainable, especially with both offenses showing enough life that a shutout doesn’t seem likely despite Oregon having the better defense.
What does stand out in this matchup is a spread of 24 points in Oregon’s favor. It’s a big line for a conference game, and the public betting shows some hesitation likely because of those factors.
However, the Ducks have scored 36 points per game and seemed to snap out of their early-season funk against Oregon State by putting up 49 points. Dillon Gabriel is settling in nicely at quarterback, and the Ducks can score in a variety of methods.
UCLA has been less efficient, scoring just 15.3 points per game with the largest output being 17 last week against LSU. The over and spread make for good plays in this matchup.
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
- QB Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
- QB Ethan Garbers, UCLA
- RB Jordan James, Oregon
- WR Tez Johnson, Oregon
- WR Evan Stewart, Oregon
- RB T.J. Harden, UCLA
- WR Rico Flores Jr., UCLA
- TE Moliki Matavao, UCLA
Gabriel has been good despite Oregon’s weird aversion to scoring touchdowns early in the season. His output has been very consistent, with an 80+ completion rate and six touchdowns to zero interceptions.
Jordan James should have a productive game against UCLA. He’s averaging 6.43 yards per rush and has three touchdowns on the season, two of which came against Oregon State as the offensive line seemed to figure things out. UCLA only allows 3.25 yards per carry on the ground, but the Bruins have allowed three rushing touchdowns to predominant passing teams.
The matchup between Rico Flores and Tez Johnson should be a good one. Both are fantastic receivers, but Flores will need Ethan Garbers to play his best game if they want to keep this close. Garbers has thrown three touchdowns to four interceptions, and he’s only completing 56.7% of his passes.
Prediction for Oregon vs. UCLA
The numbers don’t show much hope for the Bruins. They’ve struggled with turnovers this season, and while the Ducks haven’t exactly lit the scoring sheets up with takeaways, the Bruins have been fine giving teams a boost in that regard. UCLA sits at -3 on the season, the wrong end of the turnover differential.
Oregon’s problems haven’t come in moving the ball, they’ve come in converting drives into touchdowns. Just two drives ended up in the red zone against Boise State, and while explosive plays are a part of the Ducks’ game plan, so should be scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
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UCLA has been a mixed bag there, allowing Indiana to score on every trip to the red zone while holding Hawaii and LSU to field goals on two possessions each.
While the Bruins’ defense has done well to limit the run, they’re allowing opponents to convert over 50% of third downs. And if you take away the season opener against Hawaii, that number goes even higher.
UCLA has to find a way to do what Boise State did and hold the Ducks to just 33% on third downs if they want to have a chance.
Ultimately, there aren’t many areas the Bruins can point at and claim they have an edge. The spread looks large but upon further review, it’s not as large as it could be had Oregon played up to full potential in all three games already this season.
The Ducks should win this one handily.
Prediction: Oregon 41, UCLA 17
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