Despite both Oklahoma State and Kansas State entering their Week 5 matchup off losses, they still hold spots in the AP rankings, setting up just the third-ever ranked showdown in this rivalry’s history (2022, 2011).
After falling to opponents from Utah, both teams return to familiar Big 12 territory this week. This makes for a crucial matchup, as each squad is hungry to secure its first conference victory in our Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State prediction.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Betting Preview
All Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Sept. 27, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
Kansas State -2.5 - Spread
Kansas State -5.5 - Moneyline
Oklahoma State +180, Kansas State -218 - Over/Under
57.5 - Game Time
Saturday, Sept. 28, noon ET - Location
Bill Snyder Family Stadium | Manhattan, Kansas - Predicted Weather at Kick
73 degrees, partly cloudy with showers moving in late in the afternoon - How To Watch
ESPN/ESPN+
Despite dropping four of the last five in this series, Kansas State opened at a 4.5-point favorite before the line swelled to -5.5. Ultimately, it’s leveled off at five points, thus not moving the moneyline much in either way.
The Wildcats are 7-0 against the spread (ATS) following a loss over the past three seasons and 12-3 against the spread as home favorites over that same span. Also, three of Kansas State’s four games this season have gone under the total, including both of their games against power conference opponents (Arizona and BYU).
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
Oklahoma State has covered the spread in three of its last four games following a loss and in four of its last six games both on the road and as an underdog. The Cowboys were 8-1-1 against the spread in Big 12 games during the 2021 season but have a 10-10 ATS mark against conference opponents since then.
Five of the Cowboys’ last eight contests against ranked opponents have gone over the total.
Oklahoma State Winning Probabilities
Taking a look at the rest of their schedule indicates why their Week 5 matchup with Kansas State is so important. Oklahoma State is set to be favorites in the majority of their contests remaining, but each game should be closely contested.
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter in connection with our Strength of Schedule metric, we can take a look at how 10,000 simulations see the remaining games falling for the Cowboys.
- West Virginia 62.6%
- @ BYU 48.8%
- @ Baylor 60.6%
- Arizona State 68.8%
- @ TCU 61.1%
- Texas Tech 65.1%
- @ Colorado 51.8%
As you can see, each of these games should be seen as a potential toss-up with the Cowboys have the advantage in most cases. The map to the Big 12 Championship Game is still here, but a pivotal speed bump in Kansas State presents itself in Week 5.
Kansas State Winning Probabilities
Like their opponents, Kansas State should be seen as a favorite to win the majority of their games on their Big 12 schedule. However, just like Oklahoma State, the Wildcats schedule is set to be a series of closely contested games down the stretch.
Here is Kansas State’s winning probabilities using the same method of combining CFN’s FPM and Strength of Schedule to generate the probabilities they’ll win each of their remaining games:
- @ Colorado 52.5%
- @ West Virginia 50.6%
- Kansas 64.6%
- @ Houston 75.3%
- Arizona State 70.3%
- Cincinnati 75.3%
- @ Iowa State 35.9%
Road trips to Colorado, West Virginia, and Iowa State loom large, but it should be noted that they won the majority of their games the rest of the way.
The CFN FPM has the winning probability for Kansas State at 53.8% ahead of kickoff.
Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Ollie Gordon II, last year’s Doak Walker Award winner and Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, was visibly frustrated after Oklahoma State’s recent loss to Utah.
The junior standout kicked off the season with a bang, scoring three touchdowns and racking up 146 total yards against South Dakota State, but he’s struggled to maintain that momentum. Since that opening win, Gordon has managed just one touchdown and 171 total yards across three games.
Following the defeat, Gordon took to X to reassure Cowboys fans, saying, “Count us out if you want to… it’ll be your biggest regret.”
Despite falling to BYU in Week 4, Kansas State still poses a serious threat, leading the Big 12 in rushing while effectively containing opponents through the air. With a potent ground game featuring running backs Dylan Edwards (8.5 YPC), DJ Giddens (6.1 YPC), and quarterback Avery Johnson (6.7 YPC), the Wildcats are well-positioned to take advantage of the Oklahoma State defense.
The Cowboys rank last in the conference against the run after allowing 249 rushing yards to Utah last week. Expect Kansas State to lean heavily on their dynamic ground game to dictate the tempo, while Oklahoma State will need a standout performance from Gordon to keep pace.
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We’ve seen the Wildcats bounce back strong under Chris Klieman before, and they’ll look to do so again. However, the spread being more than a field goal raises concerns when it comes to betting against the number.
Kansas State had been turnover-free in wins over Tulane and Arizona, only to commit three costly turnovers in last week’s road loss to BYU, which ultimately sealed their fate. On the other side, Oklahoma State has given the ball away at least once in three consecutive games, with all turnovers being interceptions by Bowman.
If the Cowboys hope to secure a victory, it will have to come from Gordon, who has yet to find his groove against an FBS opponent this season. Last year, after a slow start, Gordon ran for 136 yards and a touchdown against the Wildcats, a performance that ignited his season and led to rushing totals of 168, 282, 271, and 138 in the games that followed.
Oklahoma State must find a way to shore up its run defense—far better than they did at home last week—if they want to pull off an upset on the road.
Prediction: Kansas State 28, Oklahoma State 27
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