The Rebels are 3-0. The Bulldogs are 3-1, with their only loss coming against Michigan in Week 1. Who will win in a battle for Mountain West supremacy?
Check out the latest betting odds, spread analysis, and our Fresno State vs. UNLV prediction ahead of Saturday’s must-see matchup that will have all eyes on the Rebels following Matthew Sluka’s headline-making decision to not play again this year.
Fresno State vs. UNLV Betting Preview
All Fresno State vs. UNLV odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. The CFN Spread comes from College Football Network’s Football Playoff Meter.
- CFN FPM Spread
UNLV -3 - Spread
UNLV -2.5 - Moneyline
UNLV -135, Fresno State +114 - Over/Under
48.5 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Sept. 28 - Location
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada - Predicted Weather at Kick
101 degrees, 7 mph winds, sunny - How To Watch
FSI
The news of multiple UNLV players opting to redshirt with a view to entering the transfer portal has had a significant impact on the Fresno State vs. UNLV odds. The Rebels are now just a two-point favorite, and that line may drop further — rightly or wrongly — as kickoff approaches.
MORE: CFN Betting Parlay Calculator
UNLV is 3-0 straight up and against the spread this year, but the over has surprisingly hit just once with the “GO-GO-GO” offense roaming the sideline. In another trend toward the under in this matchup, the over is only 1-4 in Fresno State’s last five games.
Fresno State Remaining Winning Probabilities
Using CFN’s Football Playoff Meter and Strength of Schedule metrics, we can analyze what the road ahead looks like for the Bulldogs. Getting through UNLV is key, but the road to the Mountain West Championship Game appears relatively easy afterward.
- Washington State 49.4%
- @ Nevada 83.0%
- San Jose State 74.9%
- Hawaii 82.8%
- @ Air Force 79.3%
- Colorado State 81.1%
- @ UCLA 58.9%
The Bulldogs should be favorites in all but perhaps one of their contests down the stretch, and a big game against UNLV could even swing the line against Washington State in their favor, given it’s a home contest. Fresno State can’t look ahead just yet, but they could be double-digit favorites in each of their conference contests from here on out.
UNLV Remaining Winning Probabilities
We’ll officially know what this UNLV team looks like without Sluka following this outing and we’ll adjust our winning probabilities accordingly. As it stands right now, however, the Rebels are certainly more than just their QB.
Using the same logic from above, we can take a look at how the Rebels should fare down the stretch of the season.
- Syracuse 64.6%
- @ Utah State 85.9%
- @ Oregon State 53.4%
- Boise State 51.2%
- @ Hawaii 76.6%
- San Diego State 88.3%
- @ San Jose State 65.7%
- Nevada 90.4%
These winning probabilities look at UNLV as a potential favorite in all of their remaining games, but again, these were done before we knew what this team looks like following the QB change. Stay tuned as we update these following Williams’ debut.
Prediction for Fresno State vs. UNLV
UNLV’s offense is a mess for DFS. Last year, wide receiver Ricky White III was a points-scoring demon for anyone who had him in their fantasy or DFS lineup. So far this season the Rebels have relied more on the ground game, and that should continue as dual-threat Hajj-Malik Williams takes over the QB1 job.
Meanwhile, there’s no such thing as an RB1 for Barry Odom’s team. Seven different players have double-digit carries, while four have over 100 rushing yards (two of those won’t play Saturday). Standout sophomore Jai’Den Thomas could be the main beneficiary, but anything could happen with Brennan Marion’s offense.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Speaking of the Bulldogs, if you want a piece of the offense, QB Mikey Keene and WR Mac Dalena are the go-tos. Keene is one of 26 FBS passers to surpass the 1,000-yard mark this season, with much of his production (18-431-3) going Dalena’s way.
Of course, the Rebels know this and will do their best to limit the dynamic duo, but there is no completely stopping them. New QB1 Williams is impressive on the move, but he also holds the program record for passing yards and touchdowns at his previous stop. Expect UNLV to finally get going through the air and record their first 4-0 start to a season since 1984.
Prediction: UNLV 33, Fresno State 24
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