It feels like it’s natty or bust in Athens, Ga. The Georgia Bulldogs have made three of the last seven College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship Games, and with a 3-0 start in 2024, they are on the way to making it four in eight. However, earning a spot in the expanded CFP isn’t guaranteed just yet.
Is Georgia’s Road to the CFP More Difficult Than Actually Winning the National Championship?
According to College Football Network’s first-of-its-kind College Football Playoff Meter, Georgia has a 48.7% chance of making the playoffs, ranking behind 11 teams:
- Texas – 93.5%
- Memphis – 77.6%
- Oregon – 77.2%
- Ohio State – 75.4%
- Liberty – 66.4%
- Ole Miss – 65.2%
- Missouri – 64.3%
- Miami (FL) – 57.8%
- Penn State – 57.2%
- Tennessee – 57.1%
For those keeping track at home, that’s four SEC programs with a higher chance of cracking the postseason bracket than the Bulldogs. The reason? Georgia’s remaining strength of schedule.
Kirby Smart’s squad travels to No. 4 Alabama in Week 5, No. 1 Texas in Week 6, and No. 5 Ole Miss in Week 9 before hosting No. 6 Tennessee in Week 10.
Meanwhile, Texas (vs. Oklahoma and vs. Georgia), Ole Miss (at LSU, vs. Oklahoma, and vs. Georgia), Missouri (at Alabama and vs. Oklahoma), and Tennessee (at Oklahoma, vs. Alabama, and at Georgia) have only three or fewer such games with a better road/home balance.
However, if the Bulldogs earn a playoff berth, pray for the rest of the field. They have the third-best odds of making the National Championship (27.7%) and the second-best of winning it (14.4%), behind only Texas (14.6%).
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Despite playing down to Kentucky in a 13-12 Week 3 win — which Georgia is prone to do once seemingly every year — the ‘Dawgs are No. 2 in College Football Network’s Power Rankings.
The offense has yet to find its rhythm, ranking in the middle of the pack in yards per game (402.3) and points per game (31.7), but the defense can carry the load until they do. Not only are the Bulldogs No. 4 in PPG (6.0) and No. 8 in YPG (202.0) allowed, but they are No. 2 in passing YPG despite maintaining big leads against Clemson (34-3) in Week 1 and Tennessee Tech (48-3) in Week 2.
With a grueling schedule ahead and the CFP far from locked up, Georgia’s toughest challenge might be getting there — but once they do, they’ll be the team no one wants to face.
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