With the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams and the (for now) collapse of the Pac-12, at least one Group of Five team is guaranteed a place in college football’s postseason tournament.
According to the latest College Football Playoff predictions powered by the College Football Network Football Playoff Meter, the Army Black Knights lead the way after winning in Week 10, while several contenders fell by the wayside with damning defeats.
College Football Playoff Predictions: Group of Five Race to the Postseason
The CFN Football Playoff Meter (FPM) is a proprietary metric that predicts the outcomes of the rest of the season.
It can be used to project win-loss records and the percentage chance of any of the 134 FBS teams winning the rest of their games, winning their conference, reaching the College Football Playoff, and ultimately, the chance of winning the 2024 national championship.
- Army Black Knights: 56.9%
- Boise State Broncos: 53.3%
- Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns: 41%
- James Madison Dukes: 13.4%
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 11.9%
- UNLV Rebels: 11.5%
- Tulane Green Wave: 10%
- Sam Houston Bearkats: 9.5%
- Memphis Tigers: 8.4%
Army Black Knights – 56.9%
It is the year 2024, and the Army Black Knights are ranked 18th in the AP Poll Top 25 following Week 10 of the college football season. No, this is not a typo. It’s evidence of how dominant Jeff Monken’s team has been in their first year in the AAC. The conference champion has long been at the forefront of the Group of Five’s challenge to the accepted college football elite.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
Army remains undefeated heading into Week 11, and with two conference games left, they look destined for the AAC Championship Game. A defeat to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish might dent their resume, but it’s a quality loss that shouldn’t impact how the committee views them. Win that game, and the AAC, and a playoff spot would be all-but-guaranteed.
Boise State Broncos – 53.3%
Boise State remains in the pound seat for the College Football Playoff after Week 10. A comfortable win over the San Diego State Aztecs and other results around them propelled the Broncos up to 12th in the AP Poll Top 25, six spots ahead of their nearest Group of Five competition ahead of the release of the first committee rankings on Tuesday night.
Our College Football Playoff predictions powered by the CFN FPM give the Broncos a 53.3% chance of making it to the postseason showcase after Week 10. Spencer Danielson’s team, led by Ashton Jeanty, only needs to win out from here, and they should easily secure the 12th seed — and potentially higher. The stumbling block? A likely rematch with UNLV in early December.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns – 41%
Louisiana was a perennial power in the Sun Belt under Billy Napier but has fallen off the national radar in the last two years under Michael Desormeaux. However, the Ragin’ Cajuns have snuck up on everybody this season, currently sitting at 7-1 with an unblemished conference record. They also have a Power Four win after beating the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in Week 5.
The CFN FPM gives them a 48.8% chance of winning the Sun Belt after defeating the Texas State Bobcats on the road in Week 10. Led by QB Ben Wooldridge (who leads the conference in completion percentage) and a trio of running backs that have averaged over six yards per carry each, Louisiana garnered nine AP Poll Top 25 votes in the post-Week 10 rankings.
James Madison Dukes – 13.4%
After four weeks and a comprehensive win over the North Carolina Tar Heels, the James Madison Dukes looked to have the inside track to the College Football Playoff. However, after two defeats to Louisiana-Monroe and the Georgia Southern Eagles, they’ve plummeted down our College Football Playoff predictions, with the CFN FPM giving them a 13.4% chance.
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Yet, there is still a chance. Bob Chesney’s team can still make it to the Sun Belt Championship Game despite the two conference defeats, and on their day, the Duke’s are capable of beating anyone in the conference. As a conference title winner, it will only take a loss here and there for some of the other teams mentioned here for James Madison to crack the 12-team format.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers – 11.9%
How the tide of the College Football Playoff predictions has changed in Conference USA. For the longest time, many considered that the Liberty Flames would be a key contender for the expanded postseason tournament. However, after Week 10, it’s clear that the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Jacksonville State Gamecocks are the teams to beat in the conference.
Those two teams meet in the regular season finale (and potentially in the CUSA title game), but it’s Tyson Helton’s Hilltoppers that have the best odds to take home a conference crown with a 45.9% chance, according to CFN FPM. A win over Liberty on the road on Nov. 23 would add weight to their resume. No CUSA team received AP votes following Week 10.
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