Just weeks ago, Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois seemed insignificant, but Pete Lembo has the Bulls ahead of schedule, and Thomas Hammock gave the Huskies buzz after beating Notre Dame.
Now, this MAC opener carries real weight, with Buffalo eyeing a bowl berth and Northern Illinois dreaming of an outside College Football Playoff shot. Can the Bulls play spoiler, or will the Huskies defend home turf and boost their postseason hopes?
The latest info in our Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois prediction gives an edge to one side particularly.
Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Betting Preview
All Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, September 21, 2024.
- Spread
Northern Illinois -13 - Moneyline
Northern Illinois -550, Buffalo +410 - Over/Under
42.5 points - Game time
3:30 p.m. ET - Location
Huskie Stadium | DeKalb, Ill. - Predicted Weather at Kick
83 degrees, Cloudy - How To Watch
ESPN+
The spread for this game has dropped slightly since opening at Northern Illinois -14.5. Fourteen is an important number, and after falling immediately upon release, the spread landed at 13.5. Similarly, the total has ticked down from 44.5 to its current spot at 42.5
Right now, this has an implied final score of 29-15 or so in favor of Northern Illinois, a nod to the strength of the Huskies’ defense that has allowed just 14.5 points per game through two weeks.
Prediction for Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois’ rise to Group of Five prominence is a recent development. While the Huskies have a solid team, their upset win over Notre Dame really put them on the national radar. With just that victory and an easy FCS win, there aren’t many data points to judge them by.
I’m not completely sold on the Huskies, who I pegged as a mid-tier MAC team in the preseason. They played well, but a lot had to break their way to upset Notre Dame, including poor quarterback play and two missed field goals from typically reliable Irish players.
On the other hand, Buffalo wasn’t expected to contend this season after losing key players to the transfer portal following Maurice Linguist’s departure. Yet, Pete Lembo has them playing well, despite a road shutout against top-10 Missouri.
Both teams have consistently outperformed the spread by double digits and share similar strengths.
Northern Illinois aims for efficiency in the passing game while sticking to a stubborn run attack. Buffalo, on the other hand, focuses on controlling the tempo and leaning heavily on its defense. So far, the Bulls’ defense has been stellar, especially in their dominant showing against UMass, holding the Minutemen to under three yards per play.
Here’s the key: I believe Buffalo can limit Northern Illinois’ explosive plays and force them into long drives. This gives linebacker Shaun Dolac and cornerback Marquis Cooper opportunities to make game-changing plays, as both have been standouts all season.
For Northern Illinois, patience is critical—just like in their win against Notre Dame. If they commit to the run, they can grind out a win, knowing Buffalo’s offense likely won’t keep pace.
Overall, I see this game staying under the total, with both teams relying on defense, slower tempos, and methodical drives.
The X-factor here is Lembo’s special teams prowess. Northern Illinois dominated Notre Dame in the special teams department, but that won’t happen Saturday.
If Buffalo can get any sort of explosiveness from its offense, the Bulls will not be an easy out.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
In fact, I’ll call the upset here, as the Bulls will get a huge special teams play to put them ahead late. It might be a good, old-fashioned rock fight, but Lembo can get a signiture win to continue his strong start to his Buffalo tenure.
Prediction: Buffalo 20, Northern Illinois 17
College Football Network has you covered with the latest from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and every Group of Five conference and FBS Independent program.