The Florida State Seminoles‘ season has quickly unraveled. After starting in the Top 10, they’ve now fallen out of the Top 25 following back-to-back losses. They opened with a narrow 24-21 defeat to Georgia Tech and then suffered a disappointing 28-13 home loss to Boston College.
Meanwhile, the Memphis Tigers come into this matchup at 2-0 after two convincing wins against weaker opponents. They now set their sights on a wounded Seminoles team, hoping for their first marquee win of 2024. Florida State head coach Mike Norvell aims to turn things around against his former program.
Let’s break down the betting odds and provide our score prediction for Memphis vs. Florida State.
Memphis vs. Florida State Betting Preview
All Memphis vs. Florida State odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Sept. 14.
- Spread
Florida State -6.5 - Moneyline
Memphis +205/ Florida State -250 - Over/Under
54.5 - Game time
Noon ET - Location
Doak Campbell Stadium | Tallahassee, Fla. - Predicted Weather at Kick
84 degrees, Partly Cloudy - How To Watch
ESPN
This game has seen extremely unusual line movement, and it appears that sharp bettors hammered Florida State on the opening line of -1.5. That line has been bet up to a touchdown nearly at kickoff.
The total has seen significantly less movement, opening at 52.5 and staying right around there. It currently sits at 54.5, moving north in the days prior to kick.
Of course, the moneyline has jumped with the spread. Florida State opened at -126 and has now moved to -250. If you could get FSU at -126 into some parlays early, you now hold on to some great value.
Prediction for Memphis vs. Florida State
Florida State quarterback and Oregon State transfer DJ Uiagalelei has faced heavy criticism early in the season, with many pointing to his conservative decision-making, lack of deep shots, and inaccuracy. His stats reflect a sluggish start in Tallahassee, with just 465 passing yards, one touchdown, and a 58% completion rate.
To turn things around, Uiagalelei will need to find the spark he showed late last season at Oregon State.
Florida State’s offense has struggled to produce explosive plays, with only one player, Malik Benson, exceeding 100 receiving yards so far. The ground game has been equally lackluster, as no rusher has surpassed 50 yards through two games, and the team has managed just two rushing touchdowns.
To compete effectively, the Seminoles will need to step up on both sides of the offense.
On the other side, Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan has been solid, albeit against weaker opponents. He has thrown for 469 yards, three touchdowns, and no turnovers. Memphis’ key offensive weapon is running back Mario Anderson, who has racked up 171 yards and four touchdowns on 27 carries. While facing a tougher Florida State defense than North Alabama and Troy, Anderson remains the focal point of the Tigers’ offense.
In this matchup, the outcome may hinge on whether Florida State can jumpstart its sluggish offense or if Memphis can capitalize on its balanced attack.
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with the CFN Playoff Predictor now
At this point in the season, betting on Florida State might seem risky given their lackluster performances so far. However, there’s potential value to be found here. If this matchup had been on the books back in July, Florida State would likely have been favored by around 24 points.
Yes, the Seminoles have appeared flat in their first two games of 2024, but it’s possible that Georgia Tech and Boston College are simply stronger teams than expected, with solid quarterback play and better-than-anticipated defenses.
It’s also important to remember that Mike Norvell is a skilled coach who knows this Memphis program inside and out, having built it into a powerhouse before taking the helm at Florida State. Norvell led Memphis to a 12-2 season and a Cotton Bowl berth in 2019.
In his last two seasons at Florida State, Norvell boasts a 23-4 record, a testament to his coaching abilities. The pendulum could swing back in Florida State’s favor, and Norvell has the experience to prevent the season from becoming a disaster.
It starts this weekend against Memphis, with the key focus on jumpstarting the Seminoles’ offense.
Score Prediction: Florida State 31, Memphis 17
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