Week 3 of the 2024 college football season is over, and what did we learn about the 134 programs all competing for a spot in the College Football Playoff? Some teams are very good. Some teams are very bad. Which of those teams can get to six wins and secure a postseason adventure?
Our latest college football bowl projections provide a peek into the future outlook for all 134 teams.
2024 College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
The most significant change to the 2024 college football bowl projections occurs away from any conference bowl tie-in. The new 12-team playoff format means that eight teams will place an on-campus postseason game without any bowl allegiance. After college football Week 3 the projected first-round lineup looks like this:
- No. 5 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 12 Memphis Tigers
- No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 11 USC Trojans
- No. 7 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 10 Tennessee Volunteers
- No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions
MORE: Simulate the College Football Season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor
After convincing wins for Texas, Ole Miss, Oregon, and Alabama, there is little movement in our latest 2024 college football bowl projections. Those four teams are primed for an on-campus first-round matchup, although there’s an argument that the Longhorns can challenge for the SEC championship and would, therefore, secure a quarterfinal berth at the expense of Georgia.
After dispatching Florida State in the early window, the Memphis Tigers strengthen their grip on the spot reserved for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. That said, a strong UNLV Rebels side is set to push them all the way. Finally, Tennessee swaps places with Missouri in our college football bowl projections as they continue to impress week-in, week-out.
2024 College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinals and Semifinals
Fiesta Bowl (CFB Playoff Quarterfinal): No. 3 Miami (FL) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Another week, another performance from Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward inspires confidence that Mario Cristobal’s team might be the legitimate contender in the ACC this fall. Meanwhile, Ole Miss continues to kerb stomp every inferior opponent put in their path. Tougher tests will prove their real potential, but Jaxson Dart has Lane Kiffin’s team humming.
Peach Bowl (CFB Playoff Quarterfinal): No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Oregon
A tale as old as time, Georgia has gotten its annual SEC struggle out of the way. The Bulldogs labored to a narrow win over the Kentucky Wildcats, which will undoubtedly prompt national overreaction. They’re still the best team in the nation. Oregon didn’t look like a national title contender in the first two weeks but put together a sensational showing in Week 3.
Rose Bowl (CFB Playoff Quarterfinal): No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Penn State
The Ohio State Buckeyes have the best running back room in the country, one of the best wide receiving rooms in the country (probably the best here too, if we’re being honest) and in Jeremiah Smith, they have a true freshman who is probably the best in the country.
Both of these Big Ten contenders were on a bye in Week 3, but they’re still on a collision course with the College Football Playoff. We’ll get a preview of this matchup when the two teams go into battle on November 2. Can James Franklin finally get his team over the hump in a big game.
Sugar Bowl (CFB Playoff Quarterfinal): No. 4 Utah vs. No. 5 Texas
No Cam Rising, no problem! The Utah Utes road a stellar performance from true freshman Isaac Wilson to record a strong win in the Battle of the Brothers rivalry game. Their veteran quarterback is set to return against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in what will be the first major test of whether Kyle Whittingham’s team is still the front-runner to land the Big 12 title.
In our latest 2024 college football bowl projections they’ll face a Longhorns team who had their own issues with a starting quarterback in Week 3. Quinn Ewers left the field and returned in street clothes, allowing Arch Manning to guide Steve Sarkisian’s team to victory and stir up national hype with a multi-touchdown performance.
Orange Bowl (CFB Semifinal): No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Miami (FL)
In our latest college football bowl projections, the Bulldogs despatch Oregon in the quarterfinal to set up an Orange Bowl matchup with the Hurricanes, who appear — early on in this 2024 season to have — the defense to hold Ole Miss and the offense to go toe-to-toe with most teams in the country. However, Georgia presents a whole different proposition for Miami in a semifinal.
Cotton Bowl (CFB Semifinal): No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Texas
As we’ve said multiple times in these college football bowl projections, it’s early in the season, and a lot can change between now and December/January. However, at this early stage, it’s difficult to imagine a better matchup than Ohio State vs. Texas. This semifinal is a matchup worthy of the title game, but comes one game too early for the Longhorns and Buckeyes.
Projections for the Remaining 2024 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
Howard vs. Alabama A&M
Camellia Bowl
Eastern Michigan vs. Louisiana
Frisco Bowl
USF vs. Fresno State
Boca Raton Bowl
North Texas vs. Oregon State
LA Bowl
UNLV vs. Washington
New Orleans Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Coastal Carolina
Cure Bowl
Texas State vs. Toledo
Gasparilla Bowl
Navy vs. Vanderbilt
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Appalachian State
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Georgia State vs. San Diego State
Hawaii Bowl
Tulsa vs. Hawaii
Detroit Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Miami (OH)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Boise State vs. BYU
68 Ventures Bowl
James Madison vs. Virginia
Armed Forces Bowl
Rutgers vs. Georgia Tech
Birmingham Bowl
Auburn vs. Duke
Liberty Bowl
UCF vs. Arkansas
Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona vs. Texas A&M
Fenway Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tulane
Pinstripe Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Indiana
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. Liberty
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Clemson vs. Kansas State
Arizona Bowl
San Jose State vs. Bowling Green
Military Bowl
Notre Dame vs. East Carolina
Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Washington State
Independence Bowl
TCU vs. Army
Music City Bowl
Nebraska vs. South Carolina
ReliaQuest Bowl
NC State vs. Iowa
Sun Bowl
North Carolina vs. Arizona State
Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl
Iowa State vs. LSU
Gator Bowl
Boston College vs. Oklahoma
First Responder Bowl
SMU vs. Kansas
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Syracuse vs. Illinois
Bahamas Bowl
Sam Houston vs. Ohio
Holiday Bowl
Louisville vs. Cal
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