Now that a spot in the College Football Playoffs is at stake for the Group of Five Conferences, which conference has the best chance at getting a team into the first-ever 12-team bracket?
Group of Five Conference Power Rankings
In the first decade of the College Football Playoff era, only one Group of Five team broke into the exclusive four-team playoff: Cincinnati in 2021 in their second of two consecutive undefeated regular seasons.
With the CFP expanding to 12 teams in 2024, the Group of Five will have guaranteed representation for the first time. The highest-ranked G5 team will automatically qualify for a spot in the expanded field. This will bring unprecedented excitement and anticipation for the G5 team that earns the CFP birth and targets a Cinderella run at a national championship.
When looking at the G5 teams, it comes down to which team has a chance to run the table and finish the season as the highest-ranked G5 squad in the final poll prior to the CFP. Ironically, deeper conferences may cost themselves a chance at a bid simply because their top teams knock each other off throughout the season.
So, which conference has the best chance of producing the top-ranked G5 team and punching a ticket? As we approach the 2024 season, we look at the G5 conferences and their rankings.
5) MAC
Let it be stated that no MAC football slander will ever be tolerated.
We love the MAC. But the harsh reality is that no MAC team appears capable of making a run to the top of the G5 Top-25 rankings in 2024.
Both Miami (OH) and Toledo return formidable rosters in 2024. Both finished 11-2 overall in 2023 as Miami defeated Toledo in the MAC title game at Ford Field in Detroit. Miami opens 2024 with a bit of a gauntlet as they visit Northwestern, host Cincinnati, and then travel to South Bend to square off with the Irish.
MORE: MAC Power Rankings in 2024
The odds of the RedHawks emerging from this stretch unbeaten are highly unlikely.
Toledo’s opening schedule is more manageable, but they play at Mississippi State and Western Kentucky before a highly anticipated MAC Championship rematch with Miami on October 5.
As G5 Conferences go in 2024, the MAC seems least likely to produce the first G5 team to compete in the new 12-team CFP format.
4) Mountain West Conference
When it comes to the G5 and having the highest-ranked team at the end of 2024, the Mountain West may be its own worst enemy. The MWC might be the deepest G5 conference from top to bottom, and there is the problem: Like many Power Four conferences, the Mountain West will beat itself up in 2024.
Boise State captured the 2023 Mountain West title after Spencer Danielson was promoted from interim to head coach. The team sees Dirk Koetter return as offensive coordinator and welcomes former five-star prospect Malachi Nelson at quarterback as they look to defend their title.
MORE: Mountain West Power Rankings in 2024
However, the Broncos visit Oregon for the second game of their season, before hosting Washington State and opening MWC play. The odds of Boise State running the table are very low.
Fresno State is set for a strong 2024 with the return of experienced quarterback Mikey Keene and top rusher Malik Sherrod. But they kick off 2024 with a matchup against the defending national champion Michigan Wolverines. They also square off against Washington State in the middle of their season and have to deal with Jeff Tedford stepping down as head coach.
3) American Athletic Conference
Just a few years ago, the AAC seemed destined to lead the Group of Five for the foreseeable future. However, the departure of its three strongest teams to the Big 12 altered that trajectory, as Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF all bolted.
With last season’s champion, SMU, moving to the ACC, the depth in the conference has dropped. But this isn’t all bad regarding an AAC member running the table to earn a spot at the CFP table.
Despite losing quality programs over the past few seasons, the AAC still houses significant talent. Programs like Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, and UTSA remain solid, while newcomers North Texas and Rice bring intriguing potential.
MORE: AAC Power Rankings in 2024
Memphis feels like the most obvious candidate to have a shot at representing the G5 late in the season. Seth Henigan returns for his fourth season as Memphis’ starting quarterback, coming off his best year yet, leading the Tigers to a 10-3 record. The seasoned signal-caller completed 66.8% of his passes and threw for 32 touchdowns as a junior.
The Tigers visit Florida State in September before conference clashes with Middle Tennessee State, UTSA, and Tulane. UTSA has the easiest schedules as far as the contenders are concerned, but they do have a September 14 bout in Austin lined up with the Texas Longhorns.
It’s not impossible, but it seems unlikely that 2024 will produce a team from the AAC as the G5 rep in the College Football Playoff.
2) Sun Belt
The Sun Belt conference is the only one moving forward with two separate divisions in 2024, as the SEC and Big Ten decided to eliminate their divisions. Sun Belt Commissioner Keith Gill spoke at the Sun Belt Media days regarding this decision, as he believes it will preserve rivalries and produce the best team in the league with the chance to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff.
“We decided that really was the best course of action for us, relative to the games that we’re trying to play and the opponents that we’re trying to make sure our teams see regularly, what we’re trying to do to support our fans,” Gill said at Sun Belt Media Days in New Orleans. “We brought together a lot of historical rivalries when we added schools and we want to do everything we can to facilitate as many kind of competitions between those teams as possible.”
MORE: Sun Belt Power Rankings in 2024
As Gill highlighted, the Sun Belt Conference grew in 2023 with the addition of four new members: Marshall, Old Dominion, James Madison, and Southern Miss.
Appalachian State is the frontrunner in the East division, coming off an appearance in the 2023 Sun Belt Championship game. App State’s season began with a shaky 3-4 record, including close losses to North Carolina, Wyoming, Coastal Carolina, and Old Dominion.
However, the Mountaineers rebounded impressively, winning five straight games to secure a place in the Sun Belt title game.
Appalachian State has the most anticipated matchup between G5 non-conference teams as they host Liberty on September 28.
According to the 2024 CFN Strength of Schedule Rankings, JMU enters with the second easiest schedule in the conference. The big offseason news was the departure of Coach Curt Cignetti, who left for Indiana and took several key players with him.
Bob Chesney, who had a successful run at Holy Cross, has been hired as the new head coach but inherits only four returning starters.
Despite these challenges, James Madison still has plenty of potential in 2024. There is a ton of excitement surrounding Washington transfer Dylan Morris, who is expected to provide stability at quarterback.
In the West division, Texas State is one of the most intriguing G5 squads in the country. CFN College Football Analyst James Fragoza ranked the Bobcats at No. 2 in the 2024 Sun Belt Power Rankings, and they have the best chance to knock off App State.
Jordan McCloud, the Sun Belt Player of the Year, has transferred to Texas State after averaging 302.5 total yards per game at James Madison. He joins forces with running back Ismail Mahdi, who posted 166.8 all-purpose yards per game last season.
This dynamic duo forms the core of an offense that topped the Sun Belt in scoring in 2023, and the Bobcats could very well have one of the best offenses in the country in 2024.
Texas State plays host to Arizona State in September for their only P5 matchup in 2024, and the Sun Devils will have their hands full with all of the Texas State weapons.
1) Conference USA
When evaluating which individual G5 team has the best shot at running the table in 2023, it’s hard to land on anyone other than Liberty. The Flames ran the table in 2023 and earned a New Year’s Day Bowl birth.
Liberty has firmly established itself as a powerhouse within the Group of Five programs, and its momentum continues. The schedule remains favorable for the second straight year as their strength of schedule ranked as one of the easiest for a G5 team in the 2024 CFN Strength of Schedule Rankings.
MORE: CUSA Power Rankings in 2024
Liberty has two dates to circle on their calendar, and they’re both on the road—September 28 at Appalachian State and November 9 at MTSU. While Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, and Sam Houston won’t be walkovers, Liberty is significantly better than the rest of the CUSA.
The key to their success is quarterback Kaidon Salter, who returns after an impressive 2023 campaign. Salter rushed for 1,089 yards and 12 touchdowns while also throwing for 32 touchdowns with just six interceptions.
If you’re looking for a G5 team to run the table and sit atop the G5 rankings before the CFP, the conversation starts with Liberty.