While the College Football Playoff seems to inherently favor the sport’s top programs, there’s always room for surprises. Who had Arizona State or Indiana in the CFP for the 2024-25 run, for instance?
With a new season comes a new round of potential surprise teams. Here are the 10 teams that could shock with a title run.
Top 10 potential surprise College Football Playoffs teams for 2025
1. Oklahoma
Oklahoma comes off a 6-7 season and Brent Venables has been rumored to be on the hot list. But a season ago, the OU defense actually was tremendous (21.5 points and 318 yards per game allowed), but was hurt by a genuinely subpar offense.
John Mateer and Jaydn Ott bring in both a top-flight quarterback and a top-flight running back. Oklahoma could be the surprise of the SEC– and of college football as a whole.
2. Nebraska
Stick an asterisk on this one because the issue is the quarterback. A season ago, Dylan Raiola was gutsy and led Nebraska to its first winning season since 2016.
The Husker defense has allowed under 20 points per game in each of the last two seasons, so if Raiola has improved ahead of his sophomore campaign, receivers Dane Key and Nyziah Hunter can lift Nebraska to Big Ten and CFP competitor status.
3. USC
The Trojans could surprise after a massive defensive improvement a season ago. Returning QB Jayden Maiava could be a higher-ceiling leader than transferee Miller Moss.
The Trojans managed to avoid facing either Ohio State or Penn State in league play, and that could give them a substantial boost in Big Ten play.
4. Florida
Billy Napier survived a season on the hot seat and with an eight-win squad and QB DJ Lagway returning, UF is capable of being upwardly mobile. The defense has dropped its points allowed each of the last two seasons (down to 23.1 ppg last year) and Lagway’s season of experience could be invaluable. If the young group of wide receivers can help Lagway out, Florida could surprise.
5. SMU
The Mustangs were a surprise CFP team a season ago, but could they surprise again? Absolutely so, with QB Kevin Jennings running the offense.
SMU’s 36.5 points per game last year was actually the fewest the team has managed since 2018, but with a defense that has improved under Scott Symons, SMU broke through. The pass rush that racked up 90 sacks over the last two seasons will be key.
6. Florida State
Florida State has nowhere to go but up. After last year’s miserable 2-10 campaign, Mike Norvell may well get the Seminoles back into the ACC hunt in a hurry. There’s an impressive group of offensive transfers, including QB Thomas Castellanos and running back Roydell Williams. If they can gel, the Seminoles could be the surprise of the ACC and go from 2-10 to 10-2 or a similar mark.
7. Liberty
The 2023 Liberty team would have reached the modern CFP after a 13-0 regular season. Last year, the Flames fell to 8-4. The big issue last year was offense, where Kaidon Salter had a regression of sorts.
But, transfer QB Ethan Vasko has looked very good at fellow potential CFP spoiler Coastal Carolina. Liberty could be lurking for another big season.
8. James Madison
The Dukes won nine games a season ago and could be the surprise team out of the Sun Belt in 2025. Bob Chesney will now head into his second season with returning QB Alonza Barnett, an impressive dual-threat QB who passed for 26 scores and just four interceptions last year.
Again, a high-octane defense is key. JMU allowed just 19.5 and 20.5 points per game in the last two years and had 86 sacks in that run.
9. Boise State
Boise, like SMU, hit the CFP a year ago and could well be back again. The 12-win Broncos only lost to Oregon and Penn State last year.
QB Maddux Madsen is back and should put up video game numbers in the Mountain West. Boise’s defense had 55 sacks last season and Davidson’s defensive background will keep Boise intense up front.
10. Memphis
Memphis’ 11 wins last year left them just shy of the CFP, but Ryan Silverfield’s team could finish the job this year.
Nevada transfer Brandon Lewis should be solid at QB, and a turnover-happy defense that forced a +18 turnover margin a season ago could be up to more of the same tricks. A week 4 game with Arkansas could show Memphis’s strength early.
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