The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Illinois Fighting Illini kick off a magnificent Monday of college football in the 2023 Reliaquest Bowl. With both teams coming into the clash at 8-4, which will grab a ninth win of the year? We’ve got all the latest college football betting odds and a Mississippi State vs. Illinois prediction.
Mississippi State vs. Illinois Betting Preview
- Spread
Mississippi State (-1.5) - Moneyline
Mississippi State (-125), Illinois (+105) - Over/Under
46 points - Game time
12 p.m. ET - Location
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL - Predicted Weather
75.4 degrees, sunny, 4.7 mph winds - How to watch
ESPN, fuboTV
Are the Bulldogs the team to bet on in the Reliaquest Bowl? Is Bret Bielema’s team the one to help you bolster your bank account early in the new year? Let’s examine the latest Mississippi State vs. Illinois odds to find the best value for this Monday college football matchup.
Mississippi State is a narrow favorite to win the Reliaquest Bowl, which bodes well for their chances of success. The Bulldogs are 7-2 as a moneyline favorite this season. That said, Illinois is 2-1 as a moneyline underdog, with their only defeat coming to Michigan. The Fighting Illini are also 8-4 covering the spread, including a 3-0 record as a spread underdog.
MORE: 2022 All-Big Ten College Football Team and Individual Honors
As we’ll get into during our Mississippi State vs. Illinois prediction, there are some extenuating circumstances that could nullify those historical precedents. The nature of this matchup, with the high-volume passing attack of Mississippi State against the nation’s leading scoring defense, makes the over/under tricky to predict.
11 of Illinois’ 12 games this season have come under the 46-point line, but only two of Mississippi State’s games have featured 46 points or fewer. The fact that Illinois is missing a number of key components of their lockdown defense could have a significant impact on this game, including the over/under.
Mississippi State vs. Illinois Prediction
The Reliaquest Bowl pits the 8-4 Bulldogs against the 8-4 Fighting Illini, with both teams looking to hit nine wins for the first time in several years. Mississippi State last had a nine-win campaign in 2017, while Illinois will hope to finish off its most successful season since 2007 by equalling a nine-win campaign that ended with defeat in the Rose Bowl.
Which team will walk away with elusive win number nine?
With their imposing defense and an offense led by remarkable running back Chase Brown (1,883 scrimmage yards and 13 total touchdowns), Illinois established itself as one of the top teams in the nation for a large part of the 2022 college football season.
After opening their Big Ten account with a defeat to Indiana in Week 1, they embarked on a six-game win streak that saw them enter November ranked in the AP Top 25 with a 7-1 record. However, three consecutive defeats to Michigan State, Purdue, and Michigan derailed a promising campaign before they polished off Northwestern to end the season.
Behind a secondary led by Sydney Brown and Devon Witherspoon, the Fighting Illini finished the season with the number-one scoring defense in the nation, allowing just 12.3 points per game. Only Air Force allowed less yardage per game (263.8 YPG), only Iowa and Georgia allowed fewer rushing touchdowns, and with just eight touchdowns allowed and 22 interceptions, Illinois boasted the most impactful pass defense in the nation.
Sadly for Illinois fans, a defense built to nullify the Mississippi State offense will be without both S. Brown and Witherspoon, who have opted out of the Reliaquest Bowl to focus on the 2023 NFL Draft. Running back C. Brown is also unavailable, leaving the Illinois offense to rely on quarterback Tommy DeVito and a receiving group featuring Isaiah Williams, Pat Bryant, and Brian Hightower. They’re talented but haven’t been hugely productive this season.
While Mississippi State’s defense hasn’t had the same level of success this season, they do at least have their best players available to them. The Bulldogs have allowed 24.2 points per game — almost double Illinois — while giving up just over 350 yards per game.
However, cornerback turnover machine Emmanuel Forbes’ decision to play in the Reliaquest Bowl despite his NFL Draft declaration is a major difference maker in this game. Forbes became the NCAA record holder for interceptions returned for touchdowns this season, taking three of his six picks in the 2022 season to the house. Leading tacklers Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson also being available helps swing the advantage towards the Bulldogs in this game.
The loss of Dillon Johnson and Rara Thomas to the transfer portal will impact the Bulldogs’ offense, there’s no doubting that. However, quarterback Will Rogers has proved to be a master of this Mississippi State offense and has leading touchdown receiver Caleb Ducking (eight touchdowns) at his disposal, along with leading rusher Jo’quavious Marks (532 receiving yards, nine touchdowns).
MORE: 2022 All-SEC College Football Team and Individual Honors
You can factor statistics, previous matchups (the two teams are 1-1 and haven’t played each other since 1980), opt-outs, and play styles, amongst many other factors, into this Mississippi State vs. Illinois prediction.
However, the biggest separating factor could be emotion. Mississippi State will want to go out and win this game for sadly departed head coach Mike Leach. It’s fitting that the final game of their season be played in a stadium that features a pirate ship.
Mississippi State wins, covers, hits the over, and sails off into the sunset with its first nine-win season since 2017.
Mississippi State vs. Illinois Prediction
Mississippi State 27, Illinois 24
