The 2026 NFL Draft is already shaping up to be an intriguing class, with names like Ohio State’s Caleb Downs and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik generating early attention. Yet, amid the spotlight on these high-profile talents, a lesser-known prospect from Baylor University is starting to turn heads.
Sawyer Robertson, the Bears’ quarterback, has emerged as a potential sleeper hit by reason of a breakout 2024 season that saw him throw for 3,071 yards and 28 touchdowns, while adding 229 rushing yards and four scores on the ground.
His performance has caught the attention of scouts, with one evaluator suggesting he could be the surprise of the draft cycle.
Unveiling Sawyer Robertson’s Journey to Baylor’s Starting Role
A four-star recruit out of high school, he initially committed to Mississippi State before transferring to Baylor ahead of the 2023 season. The move paid off quickly, as he stepped into the starting role and showcased his potential.
Standing at 6’4” and weighing 220 pounds, he brings a physical presence that aligns with NFL quarterback prototypes. His 2024 campaign, detailed on ESPN’s coverage of Baylor football, included an 82.9 quarterback rating and eight interceptions, reflecting a solid first year as a starter despite the learning curve.
Robertson’s ability to adapt to Baylor’s offensive system under coach Dave Aranda has been key. The Bears’ spread-option attack leverages his dual-threat capabilities, allowing him to exploit defenses both through the air and on the ground.
As noted in ESPN’s draft preview, his 52 passes of more than 20 yards in 2024 highlight his willingness to push the ball vertically, a trait that scouts value highly.
Breaking Down the Stats That Caught NFL Scouts’ Attention
Robertson’s 2024 numbers tell part of the story, but it’s the context that elevates his profile. According to the conference’s official statistics, with 3,071 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, he ranked among the Big 12’s top performers.
His completion percentage was 62.2%, a respectable mark for a first-year starter facing varied defenses. The additional 229 rushing yards and four touchdowns further underscore his versatility.
Scouts have zeroed in on specific moments that showcase his potential. A 36-yard touchdown pass, captured in a highlight reel on ESPN, demonstrated his arm talent and decision-making under pressure.
Another play, a 41-yard rushing touchdown against Oklahoma State, showcased his ability to extend plays with his legs, a skill that echoes the playstyle of recent draft risers like Jayden Daniels.
We asked NFL evaluators to pick out prospects in next year’s draft class who aren’t being talked about enough right now. Here are 10 names to know.https://t.co/MBUFnznvoO
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) June 13, 2025
These flashes of brilliance, combined with his physical tools, have led ESPN NFL draft analyst Matt Miller to include Robertson on a list of 10 under-the-radar prospects for the 2026 draft, published on June 13, 2025.
Miller’s analysis, available per ESPN, emphasizes Robertson’s upside, noting his powerful right arm and plus-level mobility. The scout’s perspective aligns with a broader trend: transfer quarterbacks have made significant impacts in recent drafts.
Data from the Journal of Sports Analytics, published in 2023, indicates that 18% of top-10 picks since 2010 were transfers, a statistic that lends credence to Robertson’s trajectory. His 2024 performance, while not yet at the 4,000-yard mark, suggests he’s on the cusp of that milestone with improved efficiency and a stronger supporting cast in 2025.
Comparing Robertson to Recent Draft Risers
The NFL has seen its share of quarterbacks emerge from relative obscurity to become first-round picks, and Robertson’s profile invites comparisons. Cameron Ward, drafted No. 1 overall in 2025 after transferring from Washington State to Miami, is a prime example.
Like Ward, Robertson entered the 2023 season overshadowed by more heralded names but used his transfer to a new program to showcase his skills. Ward’s 2024 stats, 3,735 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, set a benchmark that Robertson is approaching, and with another year of development, he could close the gap.
Another parallel is Bo Nix, who transferred from Auburn to Oregon and climbed draft boards after an approximately 4,500-yard season in 2022. Nix’s success hinged on refining his decision-making, an area where Robertson needs growth.
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His 2024 tape reveals occasional delivery and a tendency to force deep throws, as noted in Miller’s ESPN breakdown.
However, with Baylor’s offensive line returning key starters and the addition of talented receivers via the transfer portal, Robertson has the pieces to push toward 4,000 yards in 2025, a threshold that could solidify his draft stock.
With uncertainties around quarterbacks like Drew Allar and Arch Manning, Robertson’s dual-threat style fills a niche. Teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots, who may seek quarterback upgrades, could see him as a Day 2 target if he replicates or exceeds his 2024 production.
His development trajectory suggests a potential top-50 pick, a jump from his current under-the-radar status.
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