The 2025 NBA Draft is shaping up to be a talent-rich event, with Ace Bailey from Rutgers and Liam McNeeley from UConn emerging as standout prospects and potential lottery picks.
Both players bring unique skills, which have caused debates about their NBA potential. Let’s look at their NBA fit and draft projections to determine which prospect might have the better NBA outlook in their rookie season and beyond.
Ace Bailey vs. Liam McNeeley: Which Player Has a Better NBA Outlook?
Ace Bailey, a 6’10” wing/forward, boasts a frame that screams potential. Having a 7’0.5″ wingspan and a 34.5″ max vertical leap, as recorded at the NBA Draft Combine, the Rutgers star clearly is physically gifted. Weighing 202 pounds, he moves fluidly for his size, showing agility that allows him to cover ground quickly.
However, his lighter build raises questions about durability against the league’s more physical wings and forwards. Adding muscle will be key for him to maximize his tools at the next level.
“I feel like I’m a great passer. [But] when it’s time to get a bucket, I’m gonna get a bucket,”
– Ace Bailey
(Via @chasedcsports ) pic.twitter.com/AsARHSYg6z
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) June 2, 2025
UConn forward Liam McNeeley presents a different profile, likely standing at 6’8″. Scouting reports note athletic limitations that temper his upside. While not an explosive leaper or lightning-quick mover, McNeeley compensates with a sturdy frame and functional mobility.
His physical package suits a specific role, but it lacks Bailey’s versatility. Teams will weigh how these traits translate against NBA competition.
Offensive Skill Set Breakdown
At Rutgers, Bailey shot 41% from three-point range on 5.1 attempts per game, showcasing his ability to stretch defenses. His midrange arsenal, featuring post-ups and pull-ups, benefits from a high release point that smaller defenders struggle to contest. Transition scoring adds another layer to his attack.
Yet, his shot selection can be erratic, often favoring contested jumpers over higher-percentage looks. His handle, while promising, lacks polish, limiting his ability to create separation consistently. Assist numbers hover low, signaling a scorer-first mentality over playmaking.
McNeeley thrives in a different offensive lane. Known as a sharpshooter, his catch-and-shoot prowess makes him a floor-spacing threat. At UConn, he drills open looks with precision, a skill that complements star teammates.
Beyond shooting, his high basketball IQ shines through in timely cuts and clever passes, positioning him as a capable secondary playmaker.
However, his pull-up game remains underdeveloped, and creating off the dribble isn’t his forte. Forced into heavier ball-handling duties at times, he’s exposed some inefficiencies. Still, his shooting reliability offers immediate value.
Defensive Skill Set Breakdown
Bailey’s defensive upside hinges on his physical tools. His length disrupts passing lanes, and his athleticism suggests potential as a multi-positional defender. Occasional blocks near the rim hint at rim-protection instincts rare for a wing.
However, consistency eludes him. Due to his frame, he can drift out of position chasing steals or fail to hold ground against more vigorous opponents.
McNeeley approaches defense with effort and intelligence rather than elite physicality. His lateral quickness doesn’t match top-tier wings, making him vulnerable to speedy guards or explosive drivers. Against less dynamic scorers, though, he holds his own by reading plays and staying disciplined.
Versatility isn’t his calling card; he’s likely pigeonhole-ed into guarding specific matchups. Team schemes that mask his athletic gaps could turn him into a serviceable defender, but expectations should remain modest compared to Bailey’s ceiling.
Who Has the Upper Hand?
Bailey sits comfortably among the elite in 2025 mock drafts, often slotted in the top five. Some analysts peg him as high as No. 3, citing his rare blend of size and shot-making. While some are drawing comparisons to Rudy Gay or Michael Porter Jr. float around, praising his scoring flair while flagging his need for polish.
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Scouts love his upside, though his rawness keeps debates alive about his readiness versus his potential. Teams at the draft’s apex will weigh his tantalizing tools against the patience required to refine them.
McNeeley’s stock lands in the mid-to-late first-round range, with late-lottery buzz in some circles. Analysts value his shooting and smarts, often likening him to a less athletic Duncan Robinson or a “poor man’s Joe Harris.” His athletic cap tempers expectations, but his floor as a reliable contributor keeps him in the conversation.
Deciding between Ace Bailey and Liam McNeeley hinges on a team’s timeline and appetite for risk. Bailey’s trajectory depends on strength gains and skill refinement. McNeeley’s path involves proving he’s more than a one-trick pony. Expanding his off-the-dribble game or flashing better lateral quickness could push him up the boards.
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