The College Football Playoff format is ever-changing and ever-evolving. Its expansion to 12 teams in 2024 had been widely anticipated, and after some criticism of the seeding format in its maiden season, its format is altering once more.
We have reviewed the information over a decade and anticipated what may have happened if a 12-team playoff format had been used in every season since 2014.
How Would the New College Football Playoff Seeding Format Have Impacted Previous Years?
In 2025, conference champions won’t automatically hold the top four seeds. Therefore, they won’t get a first-round bye. Instead, these will be decided by the final seedings of the College Football Playoff Committee’s poll.
How much different would the college football landscape look now if the new seeding format and 12-team playoff had been used since the introduction of the four-team playoff in 2014? I’m glad you asked.
2024 College Football Playoff Seeding
First round
- No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Notre Dame
- No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Ohio State
- No. 10 SMU at No. 7 Tennessee
- No. 9 Boise State at No. 8 Indiana
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 Oregon
- No. 2 Georgia
- No. 3 Texas
- No. 4 Penn State
In the inaugural year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, we already know how 2024 played out. The Ohio State Buckeyes lifted the National Championship Trophy, defeating the Notre Dame Fighting Irish 34-23.
However, at the time, Oregon was aggrieved with its path through the postseason. They were slated to play Ohio State in its quarterfinal, a game it ultimately lost. Even if it had overcome Ryan Day’s team, the Texas Longhorns awaited them in the semifinal.
The Buckeyes dropped in the seedings after being surpassed by conference champions in the Boise State Broncos and the Arizona State Sun Devils, who got automatic byes as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. If the new seeding format had been used in 2024, then the Ducks would have likely faced the Indiana Hoosiers in the quarterfinal.
2023 College Football Playoff Seeding
First Round
- No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Florida State
- No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Georgia
- No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State
- No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 Michigan
- No. 2 Washington
- No. 3 Texas
- No. 4 Alabama
In 2023, one of the most controversial decisions (there have been plenty of them) by the College Football Playoff Committee unfolded. The Florida State Seminoles were edged out by the Alabama Crimson Tide at the last moment, primarily due to Jordan Travis suffering a season-ending injury weeks earlier and the committee’s desire to include the best four teams in the postseason event.
Had a 12-team format been used in 2023, at least some heat would have been taken out of the debate. The college landscape was split over the exclusion of the Seminoles, but if the expanded format had been in place, they would have faced the Liberty Flames in the first round, before facing the Alabama Crimson Tide in the quarterfinal.
And who knows, maybe the committee would have been more inclined to leave them as the fourth seed if this scenario had played out.
2022 College Football Playoff Seeding
First Round
- No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Alabama
- No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Tennessee
- No. 10 USC at No. 7 Clemson
- No. 9 Kansas State at No. 8 Utah
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 Georgia
- No. 2 Michigan
- No. 3 TCU
- No. 4 Ohio State
It is hard to argue with the eventual winner in 2022. The Georgia Bulldogs were the superior team in the country and embarrassed the TCU Horned Frogs 65-7 in SoFi Stadium for the National Championship Game.
Many questioned TCU’s involvement at the time, but their semifinal win over Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines answered the critics. However, if the 12-team format had been used, would they still have made it to the final? Their path would have likely looked like this: bye week, Tennessee Volunteers, Michigan. You can make your own mind up.
2021 College Football Playoff Seeding
First Round
- No. 12 Pittsburgh at. No. 5 Notre Dame
- No. 11 Utah at. No. 6 Ohio State
- No. 10 Michigan State at No. 7 Baylor
- No. 9 Oklahoma State at. No. 8 Ole Miss
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 Alabama
- No. 2 Michigan
- No. 3 Georgia
- No. 4 Cincinnati
2021 saw Georgia win the National Championship as the No. 3 seed, defeating Alabama 33-18 in Lucas Oil Stadium. It saw an undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats side led by HC Luke Fickell and QB Desmond Ridder reach the CFP for the first time, but they were overwhelmed by the Tide 27-6 in their semifinal, a game that was a significant mismatch.
But if the 12-team format was present in 2021, then the path may have potentially looked similar. The Bearcats would have had a bye before likely facing Notre Dame in the quarterfinal. Cincinnati had defeated Notre Dame 24-13 in South Bend earlier that season, and if they had repeated, then Alabama would await again in the semis.
2020 College Football Playoff Seeding
First Round
- No. 12 Coastal Carolina at. No. 5 Texas A&M
- No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Oklahoma
- No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Florida
- No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Cincinnati
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 Alabama
- No. 2 Clemson
- No. 3 Ohio State
- No. 4 Notre Dame
The 2020 College Football Playoff was played during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was already extremely difficult for the NCAA and respective conferences to put together a season, and trying to organize a 12-team playoff seems almost impossible. However, the likely outcomes would have been unlikely to have changed.
There was some criticism over Ohio State’s inclusion, having only played a four-game season, with many calling for the Texas A&M Aggies to fill one of the four places. Their path would have been vs. the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, before playing Notre Dame in the quarterfinals; if they had progressed, it would have been Alabama in the semis.
2019 College Football Playoff Seeding
First Round
- No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Oregon
- No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Baylor
- No. 9 Florida at No. 8 Wisconsin
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 LSU
- No. 2 Ohio State
- No. 3 Clemson
- No. 4 Oklahoma
The 2019 LSU Tigers are one of the all-time best college football teams. Joe Burrow’s 5,671 passing yards rank fourth on the list of single-season passing leaders, and his 60 touchdowns are the second most since 1956.
It is hard to argue with the outcome of the season; LSU would have steamrolled any opponent they would come up against, and Burrow put on one of the best postseason performances in college football history. Even with Ohio State and Clemson also being undefeated at the final CFP committee poll.
2018 College Football Playoff Seeding
First Round
- No. 12 Penn State at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ohio State
- No. 10 Florida at No. 7 Michigan
- No. 9 Washington at No. 8 UCF
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 Alabama
- No. 2 Clemson
- No. 3 Notre Dame
- No. 4 Oklahoma
Clemson breezed through the field to win the 2018 National Championship Game, defeating Notre Dame 30-3 in the semi and Alabama 44-16 in the title game. Trevor Lawrence was unstoppable in the postseason, and it is difficult to see past the Tigers winning it all, even if the format was expanded to 12 teams.
No. 5-ranked Georgia would have had its say after dropping out of the top four in the final poll after losing the SEC Championship to Alabama, but no one was standing in Dabo Swinney’s side’s way.
2017 College Football Playoff Seeding
First Round
- No. 12 UCF at No. 5 Ohio State
- No. 11 Washington at No. 6 Wisconsin
- No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Auburn
- No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 USC
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 Clemson
- No. 2 Oklahoma
- No. 3 Georgia
- No. 4 Alabama
The 2017 College Football Playoff was wide open, with seven teams vying for a playoff birth. The Wisconsin Badgers were ranked fourth after week 13 but were upset by the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Controversy was caused by Alabama’s inclusion, which moved them up one spot despite not playing for the SEC title. They were above the Auburn Tigers, who lost the SEC Championship Game to Georgia and defeated the Tide in the Iron Bowl the same season.
2016 College Football Playoff Seeding
First Round
- No. 12 Western Michigan at No. 5 Penn State
- No. 11 Florida State at No. 6 Michigan
- No. 10 Colorado at No. 7 Oklahoma
- No. 9 USC at No. 8 Wisconsin
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 Alabama
- No. 2 Clemson
- No. 3 Ohio State
- No. 4 Washington
The four playoff teams felt locked in in 2016, but the Penn State Nittany Lions felt hard done by not making the college football showcase. The Nittany Lions won the Big Ten Championship Game over Wisconsin, after reaching the game by way of a tiebreaker, but with two losses, the committee was never going to place them above an undefeated Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Washington, who all had one loss.
Their path to the final would have been the Western Michigan Broncos, then the Washington Huskies, both games Nittany Lions fans will think they could have won.
2015 College Football Playoff Seeding
First Round
- No. 12 Houston at No. 5 Iowa
- No. 11 TCU at No. 6 Stanford
- No. 10 North Carolina at No. 7 Ohio State
- No. 9 Florida State at No. 8 Notre Dame
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 Clemson
- No. 2 Alabama
- No. 3 Michigan State
- No. 4 Oklahoma
Clemson and Alabama were the clear two top teams in 2015, but the field would have put up a fight had there been a 12-team playoff. The Michigan State Spartans rose to the No. 3 seed after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game with 27 seconds left on the clock, and both teams ended their seasons 12-1. Furthermore, Stanford would have held the No. 6 seed after winning the PAC-12 and ending the season 11-2.
In a parallel universe, Iowa would have defeated the Houston Cougars, setting up a rematch against the Spartans in the quarterfinal.
2014 College Football Playoff Seeding
First Round
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Baylor
- No. 11 Kansas State at No. 6 TCU
- No. 10 Arizona at No. 7 Mississippi State
- No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Michigan State
Seeded Teams
- No. 1 Alabama
- No. 2 Oregon
- No. 3 Florida State
- No. 4 Ohio State
2014 marked the first season the four-team College Football Playoff format had been used. Ohio State defeated Oregon 42-20 in the Championship Game, but the selection of the four teams wasn’t without controversy.
KEEP READING: College Football Playoff Model Shake-Up: Straight Seeding Coming in 2025 After Controversial 2024 Format
Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby was incensed at the decision to leave out the Baylor Bears and TCU, who both ended the season 11-1 and shared the Big 12 Championship with no title game scheduled by the conference.
Despite winning their final game, the Horned Frogs slipped from No. 3 to No. 6 in the seeding, being overtaken by Baylor, Florida State, and Ohio State.
It is fair to say that a 12-team format would have created some exciting and too-close-to-call matchups.
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