The Texas Longhorns are on the cusp of a new era, but a storm is brewing beneath the surface. As Arch Manning steps into the spotlight, questions swirl about what happens next-and the answer could reshape the program’s future in ways few expect.
Texas Facing Potential QB Problem Once Arch Manning Leaves
Arch Manning’s arrival as Texas’s starting quarterback marks a pivotal moment for both the player and the program. After two years behind Quinn Ewers, Manning enters the 2025 season carrying the weight of family legacy and sky-high expectations.
His brief but impressive stint as a backup-939 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and just two interceptions fueled Heisman buzz and talk of a potential No. 1 NFL Draft selection in 2026. Yet, the reality is more complicated than the headlines suggest.
The Longhorns are facing a transition year, with major roster turnover on offense. Manning must quickly build chemistry with a new group of receivers, including five-star recruit Kaliq Lockett and four-star prospect Jaime Ffrench, while also adapting to injuries that have already thinned the depth chart.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian has made it clear that the pressure is on, warning Manning that any misstep will be amplified in the unforgiving SEC spotlight. The expectation is not just for Manning to succeed, but to elevate everyone around him and keep Texas in playoff contention.
What truly complicates matters is the looming possibility of Manning’s early exit for the NFL. Sarkisian himself has publicly acknowledged that the best-case scenario is Manning being forced to make a “really tough decision” about leaving early-meaning he played so well that the NFL is calling.
“I hope he’s got a really hard decision to make on about January 21. That means we played for a long time. That means he probably had a really good season. And that means he’s probably trying to figure out do I want one more year in the burnt orange or is it time to go to the NFL?” Sarkisian told the Houston Touchdown Club at the end of April.
“I hope it’s a really, really hard decision. I hope it’s not a no-brainer for him to come back to school.”
If Manning departs after just one season as a starter, Texas will be thrust into a high-stakes quarterback search, likely facing a massive NIL bidding war to secure a worthy successor. The cost of missing on the next quarterback could be catastrophic for a program with championship ambitions.
The new reality of college football means Texas cannot simply rely on tradition or recruiting alone. With Manning’s NIL valuation already at $6.5 million, the highest in college football-his successor will command an even steeper price, especially if Texas aims to stay competitive in the SEC and national title race.
The transfer portal has become a battleground, with elite quarterbacks fetching multi-million-dollar deals and no guarantees of landing the right fit.
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This uncertainty has ripple effects across the program. High school recruits may hesitate to commit, knowing they could be leapfrogged by a high-profile transfer. Meanwhile, the pressure on Sarkisian intensifies: his ability to navigate this transition could define his legacy at Texas.
The program’s recent success, including back-to-back playoff appearances and a 25-5 record over two seasons, has raised expectations to a fever pitch. A misstep at quarterback could undo years of progress and jeopardize Texas’s standing among the nation’s elite.
However slim, there’s also the possibility that Manning could stay beyond 2026. Family tradition and lucrative NIL deals might persuade him to delay his NFL jump, especially if a national championship remains elusive.
But Texas cannot bank on that scenario. The administration and fan base are bracing for the most expensive and consequential quarterback transition in program history- a process that, if mishandled, could cost them everything they’ve built.
As Manning takes center stage, Texas faces a crossroads. His success could launch the Longhorns to new heights, but his likely departure will trigger a quarterback arms race with staggering stakes. For Steve Sarkisian and Texas, the next move may define the program for years to come.
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