College football insider J.D. Pickell emphatically shut down the mounting hype that Arch Manning will be the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft, predicting the young Texas Longhorns quarterback will stay in Austin to refine his skills.
Despite Vegas consistently listing Manning as the favorite for top draft honors, insiders and fans alike prefer him to stay a year longer over declaring for the NFL Draft early. Here’s why the chatter about an early NFL jump is premature, and what milestones must align before Manning even considers declaring.
Prominent Analyst Says Texas QB Arch Manning Isn’t Going Anywhere
Arch Manning’s futures are currently set at +200 odds to be the 2026 NFL Draft’s No. 1 pick, but those headlines belie a deeper strategy focused on long-term readiness.
“I hope he’ll play the next three years at Texas…Right off the bat, if someone asked me, I’d say Dallas Cowboys,” his grandfather, Archie Manning, has said before, pointing to a clear preference for multi-year development.
As a redshirt freshman, Arch only saw action when former Longhorns QB1 Quinn Ewers was injured, leaving scouts wanting more film before betting big on his pro potential. The Manning ethos has always favored patience over rush, and Arch is following suit.
He rebuffed offers to chase early NIL money, mirroring a family tradition that prizes readiness over payday.
“I want to be the quarterback at the University of Texas. Sometimes it’s worth the wait,” Manning said in April.
Financial incentives at Texas are robust, but the ultimate goal is NFL longevity, not draft capital.
As Pickell noted, it’s “ridiculous” to crown Manning the future No. 1 pick before he’s even thrown a full season’s worth of snaps.
The Manning mafia wants Arch as ready as possible for the NFL. They’re not obsessed about being the top pick. I think he’ll be back.https://t.co/YCZzYtgUGK pic.twitter.com/2hKSAdA1jR
— J.D. PicKell (@jdpickell) May 1, 2025
With his roster talent around him and a coaching staff led by Steve Sarkisian devoted to pro-style development, Arch’s campaign will likely extend well beyond 2025.
Examples abound of high-profile prospects staying in school to build their brand and skill set. Recent NCAA rule changes let top quarterbacks mine significant NIL income, but the long game remains paramount.
With conference realignment and the transfer portal fueling instant-gratification narratives, Manning’s approach stands out as a counter-culture throwback.
Even if Manning dazzles in 2025—posting Heisman-caliber stats and hoisting the Longhorns into the College Football Playoff—he may still elect to return for a final polish.
The tipping point will be a confluence of elite individual numbers and team success matching Texas’s lofty expectations. Only then might Manning weigh a declaration; until that perfect storm arrives, his path remains firmly tethered to Austin.
KEEP READING: Analyst Breaks Down Quinn Ewers’ Fall in NFL Draft
Arch Manning’s draft-day hype is understandable, given his surname and flashes of promise. Between limited tape, a development-first mindset, and a strong Texas support system, Manning focuses on long-term NFL readiness, not immediate draft glory.
So, for anyone banking on him declaring early, remember, “He’s not going anywhere” until he’s truly ready.
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