The college football season has not disappointed this season. Through six weeks of action, we have plenty of data at our fingertips. With some teams exceeding expectations and others falling short, it’s time to take a look at the updated win-loss projections based on what we’ve learned so far.
For some programs, the future is pretty stark from where we thought they’d be in the preseason.
Win-Loss Projections for Every College Football Team
Using the data that backs the College Football Network Playoff Predictor, we can take a look at the win projections for every team at any given timeframe. These numbers also come from the remaining strength of schedule for each team in college football.
Here’s how we got to these numbers.
By taking the win probability for a given team across the rest of their schedule, and forcing their already-finished game results into the mix, each team saw an increase or decrease in projected wins and projected losses following Week 6. These win projections come from CFN’s Playoff Predictor and our simulation model that sims the results 10,000 times to see how the season could unfold.
Here are the updated win-loss projections for every team in college football ahead of Week 7.
- Oregon: 10.9 – 1.1
- Miami-FL: 10.9 – 1.1
- Texas: 10.8 – 1.2
- Penn State: 10.7 – 1.3
- Ohio State: 10.6 – 1.4
- Indiana: 10.0 – 2.0
- Army: 9.9 – 2.1
- James Madison: 9.7 – 2.3
- BYU: 9.7 – 2.3
- Liberty: 9.7 – 2.3
- Boise State: 9.6 – 2.4
- Clemson: 9.6 – 2.4
- Notre Dame: 9.6 – 2.4
- Iowa State: 9.6 – 2.4
- Washington State: 9.5 – 2.5
- Georgia: 9.5 – 2.5
- Alabama: 9.5 – 2.5
- UNLV: 9.4 – 2.6
- Texas A&M: 9.3 – 2.7
- Memphis: 9.3 – 2.7
- Tennessee: 9.2 – 2.8
- Ole Miss: 9.2 – 2.8
- Navy: 9.0 – 3.0
- SMU: 8.9 – 3.1
- LSU: 8.8 – 3.2
- Pittsburgh: 8.8 – 3.2
- Missouri: 8.8 – 3.2
- Texas State: 8.7 – 3.3
- Louisiana: 8.6 – 3.4
- Utah: 8.6 – 3.4
- Texas Tech: 8.6 – 3.4
- Toledo: 8.6 – 3.4
- Kansas State: 8.5 – 3.5
- Tulane: 8.5 – 3.5
- Sam Houston: 8.5 – 3.5
- Illinois: 8.1 – 3.9
- Fresno State: 8.1 – 3.9
- Western Kentucky: 8.0 – 4.0
- Oregon State: 8.0 – 4.0
- Rutgers: 7.9 – 4.1
- Duke: 7.8 – 4.2
- Nebraska: 7.7 – 4.3
- Eastern Michigan: 7.7 – 4.3
- Arizona: 7.6 – 4.4
- Syracuse: 7.6 – 4.4
- Iowa: 7.5 – 4.5
- Northern Illinois: 7.4 – 4.6
- Colorado: 7.3 – 4.7
- Coastal Carolina: 7.2 – 4.8
- North Texas: 7.2 – 4.8
- Michigan: 7.2 – 4.8
- USC: 7.2 – 4.8
- UL-Monroe: 7.1 – 4.9
- Boston College: 7.1 – 4.9
- West Virginia: 7.1 – 4.9
- Oklahoma: 7.1 – 4.9
- Arizona State: 7.1 – 4.9
- Ohio: 7 – 5
- Marshall: 6.8 – 5.2
- San Jose State: 6.8 – 5.2
- Kentucky: 6.7 – 5.3
- USF: 6.7 – 5.3
- Georgia Tech: 6.7 – 5.3
- UConn: 6.6 – 5.4
- Arkansas: 6.6 – 5.4
- Georgia Southern: 6.6 – 5.4
- Louisville: 6.6 – 5.4
- California: 6.5 – 5.5
- Bowling Green: 6.5 – 5.5
- Virginia: 6.4 – 5.6
- Arkansas State: 6.3 – 5.7
- Buffalo: 6.2 – 5.8
- Washington: 6.1 – 5.9
- Oklahoma State: 6.0 – 6.0
- Vanderbilt: 6.0 – 6.0
- Central Michigan: 6.0 – 6.0
- Virginia Tech: 5.9 – 6.1
- Colorado State: 5.9 – 6.1
- NC State: 5.9 – 6.1
- Western Michigan: 5.8 – 6.2
- Wisconsin: 5.8 – 6.2
- Jacksonville State: 5.8 – 6.2
- UCF: 5.7 – 6.3
- Maryland: 5.7 – 6.3
- Minnesota: 5.7 – 6.3
- North Carolina: 5.6 – 6.4
- South Carolina: 5.5 – 6.5
- TCU: 5.5 – 6.5
- Georgia State: 5.5 – 6.5
- FIU: 5.4 – 6.6
- Cincinnati: 5.4 – 6.6
- UTSA: 5.2 – 6.8
- ECU: 5.1 – 6.9
- Charlotte: 5.1 – 6.9
- Michigan State: 5.1 – 6.9
- New Mexico: 5.0 – 7.0
- Tulsa: 5.0 – 7.0
- FAU: 4.9 – 7.1
- Wake Forest: 4.7 – 7.3
- Florida: 4.7 – 7.3
- South Alabama: 4.6 – 7.4
- Appalachian State: 4.6 – 7.4
- Baylor: 4.5 – 7.5
- San Diego State: 4.5 – 7.5
- Miami-OH: 4.4 – 7.6
- Hawaii: 4.4 – 7.6
- Middle Tennessee: 4.3 – 7.7
- Louisiana Tech: 4.3 – 7.7
- Stanford: 4.3 – 7.7
- Auburn: 3.9 – 8.1
- Nevada: 3.9 – 9.1
- Ball State: 3.6 – 8.4
- Utah State: 3.6 – 8.4
- Rice: 3.5 – 8.5
- Troy: 3.4 – 8.6
- Wyoming: 3.3 – 8.7
- Kansas: 3.3 – 8.7
- Air Force: 3.3 – 8.7
- Northwestern: 3.3 – 8.7
- Florida State: 3.2 – 8.8
- Houston: 3.2 – 8.8
- Temple: 3.2 – 8.8
- Southern Miss: 3.1 – 8.9
- Akron: 3.1 – 8.9
- UAB: 3.1 – 8.9
- ODU: 3.0 – 9.0
- New Mexico State: 2.9 – 9.1
- UTEP: 2.9 – 9.1
- UMass: 2.8 – 9.2
- UCLA: 2.7 – 9.3
- Purdue: 2.4 – 9.6
- Mississippi State: 2.3 – 9.7
- Kent State: 2.3 – 9.7
- Kennesaw State: 1.4 – 10.6
Projected 2024 ACC Standings
- 1) Miami-FL: 10.9 – 1.1
- 2) Clemson: 9.6 – 2.4
- 3) SMU: 8.9 – 3.1
- 4) Pittsburgh: 8.8 – 3.2
- 5) Duke: 7.8 – 4.2
- 6) Syracuse: 7.6 – 4.4
- 7) Boston College: 7.1 – 4.9
- 8) Georgia Tech: 6.7 – 5.3
- 9) Louisville: 6.6 – 5.4
- 10) California: 6.5 – 5.5
- 11) Virginia: 6.4 – 5.6
- 12) Virginia Tech: 5.9 – 6.1
- 13) NC State: 5.9 – 6.1
- 14) North Carolina: 5.6 – 6.4
- 15) Wake Forest: 4.7 – 7.3
- 16) Stanford: 4.3 – 7.7
- 17) Florida State: 3.2 – 8.8
Projected 2024 Big Ten Standings
- 1) Oregon: 10.9 – 1.1
- 2) Penn State: 10.7 – 1.3
- 3) Ohio State: 10.6 – 1.4
- 4) Indiana: 10.0 – 2.0
- 5) Illinois: 8.1 – 3.9
- 6) Rutgers: 8 – 4.1
- 7) Nebraska: 7.7 – 4.3
- 8) Iowa: 7.5 – 4.5
- 9) Michigan: 7.2 – 4.8
- 10) USC: 7.2 – 4.8
- 11) Washington: 6.1 – 5.9
- 12) Wisconsin: 5.8 – 6.2
- 13) Maryland: 5.7 – 6.3
- 14) Minnesota: 5.7 – 6.3
- 15) Michigan State: 5.1 – 6.9
- 16) Northwestern: 3.3 – 8.7
- 17) UCLA: 2.7 – 9.3
- 18) Purdue: 2.4 – 9.6
Projected 2024 Big 12 Standings
- 1) BYU: 9.7 – 2.3
- 2) Iowa State: 9.6 – 2.4
- 3) Utah: 8.6 – 3.4
- 4) Texas Tech: 8.6 – 3.4
- 5) Kansas State: 8.5 – 3.5
- 6) Arizona: 7.6 – 4.4
- 7) Colorado: 7.3 – 4.7
- 8) West Virginia: 7.1 – 4.9
- 9) Arizona State: 7.1 – 4.9
- 10) Oklahoma State: 6.0 – 6.0
- 11) UCF: 5.7 – 6.3
- 12) TCU: 5.5 – 6.5
- 13) Cincinnati: 5.4 – 6.6
- 14) Baylor: 4.5 – 7.5
- 15) Kansas: 3.3 – 8.7
- 16) Houston: 3.2 – 8.8
Projected 2024 SEC Standings
- 1) Texas: 10.8 – 1.2
- 2) Georgia: 9.5 – 2.5
- 3) Alabama: 9.5 – 2.5
- 4) Texas A&M: 9.3 – 2.7
- 5) Tennessee: 9.2 – 2.8
- 6) Ole Miss: 9.2 – 2.8
- 7) LSU: 8.8 – 3.2
- 8) Missouri: 8.8 – 3.2
- 9) Oklahoma: 7.1 – 4.9
- 10) Kentucky: 6.7 – 5.3
- 11) Arkansas: 6.6 – 5.4
- 12) Vanderbilt: 6.0 – 6.0
- 13) South Carolina: 5.5 – 6.5
- 14) Florida: 4.7 – 7.3
- 15) Auburn: 3.9 – 8.1
- 16) Mississippi State: 2.3 – 9.7
Projected 2024 American Standings
- 1) Army: 9.9 – 2.1
- 2) Memphis: 9.3 – 2.7
- 3) Navy: 9.0 – 3.0
- 4) Tulane: 8.5 – 3.5
- 5) North Texas: 7.2 – 4.8
- 6) USF: 6.7 – 5.3
- 7) UTSA: 5.2 – 6.8
- 8) ECU: 5.1 – 6.9
- 9) Charlotte: 5.1 – 6.9
- 10) Tulsa: 5.0 – 7.0
- 11) FAU: 4.9 – 7.1
- 12) Rice: 3.5 – 8.5
- 13) Temple: 3.2 – 8.8
- 14) UAB: 3.1 – 8.9
Projected 2024 CUSA Standings
- 1) Liberty: 9.7 – 2.3
- 2) Sam Houston: 8.5 – 3.5
- 3) Western Kentucky: 8.0 – 4.0
- 4) Jacksonville State: 5.8 – 6.2
- 5) FIU: 5.4 – 6.6
- 6) Middle Tennessee: 4.3 – 7.7
- 7) Louisiana Tech: 4.3 – 7.7
- 8) New Mexico State: 2.9 – 9.1
- 9) UTEP: 2.9 – 9.1
- 10) Kennesaw State: 1.4 – 10.6
Projected 2024 MAC Standings
- 1) Toledo: 8.6 – 3.4
- 2) Eastern Michigan: 7.7 – 4.3
- 3) Northern Illinois: 7.4 – 4.6
- 4) Ohio: 7.0 – 5.0
- 5) Bowling Green: 6.5 – 5.5
- 6) Buffalo: 6.2 – 5.8
- 7) Central Michigan: 6 – 6
- 8) Western Michigan: 5.8 – 6.2
- 9) Miami-OH: 4.4 – 7.6
- 10) Ball State: 3.6 – 8.4
- 11) Akron: 3.1 – 8.9
- 12) Kent State: 2.3 – 9.7
Projected 2024 Mountain West Standings
- 1) Boise State: 9.6 – 2.4
- 2) UNLV: 9.4 – 2.6
- 3) Fresno State: 8.1 – 3.9
- 4) San Jose State: 6.8 – 5.2
- 5) Colorado State: 5.9 – 6.1
- 6) New Mexico: 5.0 – 7.0
- 7) San Diego State: 4.5 – 7.5
- 8) Hawaii: 4.4 – 7.6
- 9) Nevada: 3.9 – 9.1
- 10) Utah State: 3.6 – 8.4
- 11) Wyoming: 3.3 – 8.7
- 12) Air Force: 3.3 – 8.7
Projected 2024 Sun Belt Standings
- 1) James Madison: 9.7 – 2.3
- 2) Texas State: 8.7 – 3.3
- 3) Louisiana: 8.6 – 3.4
- 4) Coastal Carolina: 7.2 – 4.8
- 5) UL-Monroe: 7.1 – 4.9
- 6) Marshall: 6.8 – 5.2
- 7) Georgia Southern: 6.6 – 5.4
- 8) Arkansas State: 6.3 – 5.7
- 9) Georgia State: 5.5 – 6.5
- 10) South Alabama: 4.6 – 7.4
- 11) Appalachian State: 4.6 – 7.4
- 12) Troy: 3.4 – 8.6
- 13) Southern Miss: 3.1 – 8.9
- 14) ODU: 3.0 – 9.0
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